Iraqi forces are bombing ISIS stronghold of Tal-Afar in preparation for a ground assault.

A view of Tal-Afar. Reuters. 

Iraqi forces are bombing the ISIS stronghold of Tal-Afar in preparation for a ground assault to liberate the city. Reuters. After losing the city of Mosul, ISIS has few outposts left in Iraq, with Tal-Afar being one of the most notable and is the next in line to be liberated. The Iraqis are delaying the assault to give the air campaign more time to destroy ISIS targets in the city. Only 1500 to 2000 fighters remain in the city. It is unclear how difficult the battle will be, with the United States saying that Tal-Afar is home to some of ISIS's most dedicated fighters while the Iraqis say the battle will be quick because ISIS is demoralized. 

My Comment:

Tal-Afar is the last major city controlled by ISIS in Iraq. Defeating them there will not be the end of the war. ISIS still has control much of the Syria/Iraq border region and they also control a large area in the Hiwijah area. But ISIS's most important holding remains Tal-Afar. 

Not mentioned in the Reuters report is the fact that Tal-Afar, much like Mosul before it, the city is surrounded and cut off from ISIS reinforcement. The Kurds control all the pathways out of the region to the north while the Iraqis still have control of the area to the south, west and east. There is no escape for the fighters still trapped in the city and no hope of reinforcement or rescue. 

This is another example of Donald Trump and his staffs successful strategy to not let ISIS retreat and regroup. In the past, under the previous president, deals were often made that allowed ISIS to flee cities that were about to be liberated in order to reduce civilian casualties. Though we did have fewer civilian casualties using that strategy it allowed ISIS to bounce back after defeats and then even take new territory and greatly prolonged the war and probably resulted in quite a few more civilian casualties. 

That isn't going to happen now. Much like the fighters in Mosul, the remaining ISIS fighters won't be given the option of retreat. They now have two choices. Surrender or die. 

In the past, most of those fighters chose to die. Some of the local ISIS supporters do indeed surrender, but foreign fighters do not. They understand there is nothing for them to go home to and their only hope is that somehow they manage to defeat the forces besieging them. 

It will be worse in Tal-Afar. The city has a well deserved reputation of being a rough place. The fighters produced in the city are among ISIS's best and most dedicated fighters. They are all doomed of course but they will make the Iraqi forces pay for every inch. 

That's why I think the US assessment of the upcoming battle is correct. It will be a tough fight. The Iraqis are right that ISIS is demoralized, but not so much that they won't fight. The fighters there are motivated true believers that have no love for the Iraqi government. Air strikes and battlefield setbacks won't change that. 

The main difference is that now the Iraqi army is in much better shape. It's a far cry from the broken force that collapsed in Mosul in 2014. Now they are tough, well trained, well equipped and dedicated army. They haven't lost a battle in recent memory and were able to take Mosul after 9 bloody and destructive months. They have been tested by fire and survived. Though Tal-Afar will be a tough fight, it won't be anywhere near as bad as Mosul and the outcome really isn't in doubt. The Iraqis will win. 

The war against ISIS has fallen off the radar from the American news media. They are more focused on trying to take down the president than giving attention to one of his most obvious and dramatic victories. A more charitable interpretation is that our victories against ISIS make for worse headlines then when they were taking cities and executing civilians. But I'm going to do my part to make sure that this very important story gets told...