Trump and GOP senators introduce RAISE act which would greatly reduce legal immigration.

President Donald Trump. Reuters. 

Trump and two GOP senators have introduced the RAISE act which would reduce legal immigration. Reuters. The plan would reduce the number of immigrants by 50% over the next ten years. The act would seek to end the current "chain migration" system and would replace it with a merit based one like the ones used in Canada and Australia. Trump said the RAISE act would favor immigrants that can speak English and could financially support themselves. The legislation does not effect temporary work visas for seasonal and temp jobs. The bill would also remove the "diversity" lottery that allows 50,000 people from "underrepresented" countries to enter and also set a hard cap for refugees at 50,000 a year. 

My Comment:

If this legislation passes it will save the Republican party. The GOP base has hated all forms of immigration, legal or otherwise, for decades now and many support reducing legal immigration as well. Indeed, if there is any criticism from the GOP base on this bill it will be that it doesn't go far enough to reduce legal immigration. 

The media tends to downplay how unpopular legal immigration is. Though people tend to like legal immigrants more than illegal ones because at least the legal ones played by the rules, that doesn't mean they approve of current immigration levels. Indeed, legal immigrants cause some of the same problems that illegal ones do including lower wages, and more competition for jobs. They know that the argument is that allowing in immigrants helps the economy, but if the economy is booming and you still can't find a job or have to take a pay cut because some immigrant took your job or does it for cheap than who cares if the economy is doing well? 

The RAISE act also seems to be a much better plan than our current plan of just letting anyone in regardless of their skills or primary language. It takes a lot of ideas from our neighbors to the north, Canada. Though Canada has the reputation of being friendly to immigration, the fact of the matter is that they are fairly strict on who they allow in. 

Canada has a points based immigration laws that let people in based on their skills. This system seems to work very well for Canada and they seem to be able to integrate their migrants much better than the United States and leagues better then they do in Europe. The benefits of letting in the best people are so obvious that there is no reason to state them. 

I think it is fairly important that the bill doesn't effect temporary workers with a green card. Though I don't know if I buy the argument that temporary workers do jobs that Americans won't do, they do help certain industries like food processing and farming. Putting additional restrictions on that would have made the legislation impossible to pass. 

So does this legislation have a chance to pass? I don't know. Though immigration restriction is very popular among the GOP base and even has bipartisan support, it is very unpopular for the business wing of the party. Since those people tend to be major donors there will be heavy pressure on some of the GOP to fight this law. Congress will have to decide between the millions of people who voted for them or the few that give them millions of dollars. History shows that they will go with the ones that give them money and hope that their base will still support them. 

That would be a massive mistake. Opposition to immigration in general and illegal immigration specifically was a major reason why the GOP was elected in the first place. Trump rode that wave into the White House and it was able to give the GOP both the House and the Senate. To not give the GOP base something for their efforts would be disastrous. The one thing I have heard time and time again is that people are disgusted with the GOP not keeping their promises on immigration. 

That being said, the GOP seems to like losing. They are very good at promising things to their base and then completely failing to deliver. Repealing health care was a great example of this and I am guessing that the RAISE act will likely end up going the same way...