Iraq campaign to liberate Tal-Afar from ISIS is proceeding very quickly.

Iraqi forces run in Tal-Afar. 

Iraqi forces have liberated the city center in Tal-Afar from ISIS. AFP. The advance has come surprisingly quick for one of ISIS's last holdouts in Iraq. The city itself has been mostly liberated with only a few districts still under ISIS control. The assault started last week the battle is projected to be over early next month. Tal-Afar is a strategically important city between Mosul and the Syrian border and was long home to some of ISIS's most dedicated and vicious fighters. Once Tal-Afar is liberated, Iraqi forces are expected to start the next offensive in Hawija, an ISIS controlled city in central Iraq. 

My Comment:

I guess the Iraqi assessment from before the battle was correct. They said that ISIS was demoralized and that the battle would be quick. So far they have been completely right. I tended to agree with the American assessment that said that the battle would be a long and brutal one, but I guess I was wrong. Unless the last few districts end up putting up way more resistance, this battle is all but won. 

Part of it has to be how improved the Iraqi military is. This isn't the broken army that fled from a small ISIS force in Mosul. That army has been destroyed and completely rebuilt. Now the Iraqi military has been well trained and battle tested. They are well armed, well motivated and are getting plenty of support from foreign governments. Their special forces are excellent and have been a critical factor in helping to win the various battles against ISIS. It is amazing how quickly the Iraqi government has been able to turn in around. They have gone from a joke to one of the Middle East's better armies. 

Of course ISIS really is demoralized and defeated. They have lost so many of their leaders that they hardly even have leadership anymore. They can no longer reinforce their troops from foreign fighters, and can not replace the troops they lose. I think they know that their caliphate is not going to survive and they know there is no escape for them and very little chance of things changing. 

ISIS is also no longer given the option to retreat in Iraq. Trump's generals, along with the Iraqis, have implemented a surround and destroy strategy that prevents ISIS from retreating and regrouping. This has been devastating for ISIS and though it has also come with an increase in civilian casualties it is ending the war much quicker. 

ISIS has very few options left in Iraq. Other than Tal-Afar and a few outposts near the Syrian border, their only city they have left is Hawija. Hawija isn't a big city and like the battles of Mosul and Tal-Afar, the city is already isolated and surrounded. ISIS controls some of the countryside near the city, but they have no path to the main ISIS forces in Syria. They are completely cut off. 

It seems like there is a path for the Iraqis to end the war. With only a few cities left, Iraq only needs to push out ISIS in Tal-Afar, Hawija and a few border towns and cities near Syria. If the pace continues like it has during the battle of Tal-Afar, than there is a real chance by 2018 the war will essentially be over in Iraq. 

But that doesn't mean that Iraq will have peace. As long as their neighbor, Syria, is still unstable, there is always a chance that the war there will spill back over into Iraq. The advance against ISIS in Syria isn't going as quickly as it has gone in Iraq and there is always a chance that squabbling between all the non-ISIS factions in Syria could give the terror group a chance to regroup. 

We also have to realize that even if ISIS is removed from every city in currently controls, it won't just go away. Already there is evidence that ISIS is returning to their roots as a terrorist organization as opposed to a caliphate/state. The remnants of ISIS will continue to strike against Iraq and given the chance they will rise from the ashes again. Iraq will, above all else, have to remain vigilant and prevent this from occurring...