Wednesday, August 23, 2017

In Syria, hotline between Russia and United States appears to be working.


By Rob Shenk from Great Falls, VA, USA (F-22 Raptor) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

The hotline between Russia and United States used to avert potential conflicts in Syria is working. Reuters. Despite high tensions between Russia and the United States the hotline has reduced tensions. That wasn't always the case. Four months ago America bombed a Syrian base in response to a chemical attack and in June America shot down two drones and a Syrian fighter jet. Since then the hotline has been very active, averaging 10 calls a day. Russia and the United States have worked hard to ensure that the deconfliction line keeps Russian and American airplanes away from each other. Both sides are working hard at expanding that line further to the east as the battle moves away from places like Raqqa and to ISIS's last outpost, the besieged city of Dier ez Zor. 

My Comment:
This is undoubtedly good news and news that isn't being reported. A few months ago it looked like there was a chance that we could go to war with Russia in Syria. It was never a good chance, mind you, but tensions were very high. We shot down a Syrian plane and a couple of drones as well. It wasn't looking good. 

Thankfully cooler heads prevailed and we now have a system in place that keeps Russian and American jets away from each other. This is a critical system that needed to be put into place and I am glad that we are working with the Russians on this. Cooperating with Russia in Syria was a major reason I voted for Trump and I am glad that it came to pass, even if that cooperation is limited.

Though America and Russia have different goals, our interests align in Syria. We both want ISIS to be defeated. Though Russia probably wants ISIS defeated to protect their Syrian government client, we can work with them in fighting ISIS. We need to make sure that ISIS is going to be defeated so they don't launch terror attacks. In that we have common cause with Russia. Letting ISIS run rampant doesn't help anyone. 

This hotline has some obvious benefits. First it prevents the possibility of a mid-air collision. With airspace as crowded and complex as Syria, avoiding a collision is actually a major problem. By letting each other know where our forces are, we avoid that problem. Though a accident probably wouldn't cause a conflict, it would cost lives and it is important that we protect our airmen and it's important to Russia to protect their pilots as well. 

Second, we are avoiding the possibility of a accidental airstrike. I don't want to call it "friendly fire" because we aren't really on the same side, but the concept is the same. With Russian jets operating in the same area as American ground forces and vise versa, without cooperating with each other we have a real chance of hitting each others forces on the ground by mistake. This is what triggered the shoot down of the Syrian fighter jet last June, and it is something we need to avoid. 

Third, having lines of communications open allows for the possibility of better relations between us and Russia. Working together with Russia in Syria will give us some common ground that we can use to possibly get over our differences. The gulf is still huge but cooperation with Russia on Syria proves that we can occasionally put aside our differences. 

I wonder what will happen though when ISIS is just left to a few enclaves in Eastern Syria. Right now the battle is in Raqqa where the Americans are backing rebels and the Kurds. The Russians are mostly supporting the Syrians in attacking Dier ez Zor. Right now the armies are very separated but once Raqqa is liberated we are going to have to make some hard choices. My guess is that we will hold back and let the Russians and Syrians destroy what remains of the ISIS caliphate. 

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