The ISIS terror plot to take down an Australian airplane may have involved chemical weapons.

Australian police stand guard in the Sydney Airport. ABC News/Getty. 

The ISIS terror plot to destroy an Australian airliner is more sophisticated than initial reports indicated and may have involved chemical weapons. ABC News. The two suspects, Khaled Khayat and Mahmoud Khayat have been charged with terrorism related crimes. The plotters were involved in two separate terror operations and may have received instruction from ISIS leaders in Syria. The plot is being called the most sophisticated terror mission ever conceived in Australia. ISIS gave help and assistance with the IED that the two suspects assembled and were to deliver by using one of the suspects brothers as an unwitting pawn. There was also a second plot to release Hydrogen Sulfide after the first plot failed, but the suspects were arrested before they could do anything besides purchase precursor chemicals.

My Comment:

I originally covered this incident on this blog last week. I think the further information that has now been released shows I was essentially correct in my analysis. This was an extremely serious terror plot that could have killed dozens of people if it had been pulled off. What we didn't know is how close this plot came to fruition and the fact that conspirators had a backup plan in its early stages.  

I have to say that the Australian security checkers at the Sydney airport were on the ball. Had one of them failed to inspect the suspects brother, then they very well could have taken down an entire plane. The fact that they didn't is a testament to their skill and professionalism. Airport security is usually pretty good at preventing bombings, jokes about the TSA aside. This foiled attack just goes to show that maybe airport security is more important than we give it credit. 

And I have to mention that if the Australians are right and the suspects brother was just an innocent dupe that was tricked into carrying a bomb, then this is an even more disgusting act than your run of the mill terrorist attack. The suspect convinced his brother to carry a bomb without telling him what it was and knowing full well that doing so could have resulted in his death, either by the bomb itself or by security officials. How anyone could justify using their brother this way instead of doing it them self is beyond me. I don't like accusing our enemies of cowardice, but in this case that's exactly what this is. I have little doubt that the Australians are going to have any trouble convincing the brother to testify in this case. 

This was at the same time a very smart and a very stupid terrorist attack. On the one hand it was fairly impressive that they were able to deliver or obtain the explosive components to Australia. I am also impressed that they were able to bounce back after the first plot was stopped and were in the process of building a second weapon, this time chemical in nature. This goes way beyond the typical lone wolf nutjob.

On the other hand, what were they thinking with the target? Passenger airliners are about the most well defended targets you can find. Even military bases are easier to hit, as we have seen a couple of times here in the United States. It is extremely hard to ever get a bomb onto a plane and usually only works when you have someone on the inside helping you out. Sending your clueless brother through security? That was almost certainly never going to work. It was so unlikely to work that they never should have tried it in the first place. So why did they? 

My guess is that the device was only large enough to punch a hole into the side of an airplane and couldn't be used any other way. Perhaps they just didn't have enough explosives to make an effective bomb for targeting something else, but if that was the case they should have called off the operation and gone with their backup plan. 

That backup plan could have resulted in the first use of chemical weapons by ISIS in a terrorist attack outside of the Middle East. Yes, ISIS has used chemical weapons before and other groups have used chemical weapons as well, but it would have been a first for a non-Middle East country. It would have been a propaganda coup even if it didn't kill that many people. 

That's no guarantee for Hydrogen Sulfide. It's a dangerous and deadly chemical that was used by the British in World War I. It isn't the prefect chemical weapon but it can certainly kill very quickly. If the two ISIS operatives had managed to put a device together and place it into a crowded enclosed space a lot of people could have been killed and injured.

And the psychological impact of a chemical weapons attack can't be understated. People have an even greater fear of chemical weapons compared even to getting shot or blown up. These weapons are often horrifying and nobody wants to die because of some chemical they can't even see. There is a reason these weapons are banned and why Syria's use of them were such a big deal. People have a visceral reaction to them and having a successful attack could cause quite a bit of panic. 

The plot didn't seem to have gotten that far off of the ground and there is a very good chance that nothing could have came of it. Hydrogen Sulfide is a difficult chemical to produce and is extremely dangerous, so it's possible that if they screwed up they only people they could have killed would be themselves. Still, had the Australian police not conducted the raids when they did, this terror plot had a chance to work. 

I also want to reiterate a point I made in the last post on this subject. ISIS seems to have fallen into a trap in this case that their terrorist predecessors in al-Qaeda fell into all to often. They tried a very complex plot against a hard target when a simpler plot against a softer target would have probably worked. Had they instead made a suicide vest or pressure cooker bomb and detonated it at a crowded location instead of targeting an airplane or messing with chemical weapons, they almost certainly would have killed a bunch of people. 

Let's hope that this is a trend that continues with ISIS. They have been effective at gun, knife and small explosive attacks throughout Europe and the United States, but they haven't been at all with these kinds of spectacular attacks, the bombing of the Russian airliner in Egypt being the one notable exception. I hope this is how they are going to do things from now on, despite the obvious risk of them actually pulling off a major attack.