Venezuela moves closer to civil war as Maduro's government repels an attack on a military base.

Members of Opperation David Carabobo announcing an uprising in Valencia. Reuters. 

Venezuela moves closer to civil war as the government there repels an attack on a military base, killing two. Reuters. According to the Maduro government, 20 men attacked Fort Paramacay near Valencia with the aim of liberating weapons. Two attackers were killed and eight captured with the remaining forces making it out with weapons. The attack comes after Venezuela voted for, in a widely condemned election, a new national assembly that cut out opposition parties. The attackers released a video calling for a transition government. Maduro blamed the attacks on right wing radicals funded by the United States. Approval of Maduro's government varies in the military with high ranking officers liking him better than the lower ranks.

My Comment:

It seems that Venezuela is moving closer and closer to civil war. It's clear that is what these fighters were going for. They wanted to capture weapons from the government so they can arm civilians and better fight the government. 

Right now the civilian populace is fed up with the Maduro government, and with good reason. Venezuela sits on one of the largest reserves of oil in the world and yet the people there are on the verge of starvation. Why? Because of reinvesting the money made by oil into diversifying the economy or even upkeep and maintenance on the oil industry, the government focused on socialism and graft. When the price of oil collapsed, so did the economy of Venezuela. 

There has been a quite bit of civil unrest and even deaths, but nothing like an actual insurgency. The conditions are right for it but so far other than this attack and the daring helicopter raid six weeks ago, nothing has happened. 

So why not? Well for one thing this raid proves the desire for a rebellion is there, but they do not have the weapons or supplies to pull it off. This raid is proof of that. They needed to attack a military base with well armed troops to even have a shot. It seems as they did get some weapons that will be used to arm more troops, but the fact that they had to resort to such a desperate measure shows that they had no other choice. Indeed, the video that the Carabobo group put out showed they only had a couple of weapons, none of which look modern. 

It just goes to show how important gun rights are. Right now the Venezuelan government has taken complete control of everything with their new assembly. Efforts to vote out the Maduro government have completely failed and it's safe to say that Democracy isn't going to change anything. Right now the opponents of Maduro have two choices, fight or face oblivion. And not having guns is making the first option even more dangerous than it would be otherwise. 

So can a rebellion still happen? I am not sure. A small cache of weapons captured from the military probably isn't enough to start a rebellion. There are certainly enough angry Venezuelans to fight, but without weapons it isn't much of a contest. Without help, any hopes of a rebellion are doomed. 

So who can help the Venezuelans? As I see it there are two candidates. The first is the military of Venezuela itself. They certainly have the weapons and training to form a core for a rebellion and if they go after the leadership itself a rebellion might not even be necessary. 

Will they go for it? I am not so sure. The upper level officers are generally in the bag for Maduro. They are kept in line with graft and corruption and are given quite a bit of money to stay loyal for Maduro. The lower ranked troops though are the exception. If there is going to be a rebellion, it will come from the lower ranks.  

The other option is for foreign governments to arm the rebels. The United States has a long history of doing so in South America and we have overthrown leftist governments before. But I find it unlikely that we would do so again in Venezuela.

Why? Because the government of President Donald Trump seems to dislike the idea of regime change. On the campaign trail Trump has been very critical of the regime changes in Iraq and Libya and as president he hasn't moved against President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. He has been rattling the saber against North Korea, but considering their tests of missiles that can hit the United States, he has little choice. I don't see Trump trying to take down Maduro, but it's possible that rouge elements of the intelligence community might try it. 

Plus there is the problem of blowback. Getting rid of the leftist joke of a government headed by Maduro would be undoubtedly a good thing, but it would have serious consequences in the region. The most important of these would be a massive refugee crisis that would immediately impact the United States. The last thing that America and Trump needs is a new immigration crisis and a civil war would obviously create one. 

The best thing that could happen is if Maduro either resigns or drops dead. I don't see that happening so the only likely outcomes are either a rebellion or Maduro crushing the opposition...