Should we be worried about North Korea?

As you may know North Korea has directly threatened the United States yet again. Today's threat is that North Korea is considering attacking US bases in Guam with a missile strike, certainly implying at least that they will use their nuclear weapons. The threat comes after Donald Trump said that if North Korea continues with their threats the United States will reply with "fire and fury". 

This exchange has, understandably, caused quite a bit of panic on social media and media coverage is predictably over the top. People think World War III is about to start and that the west coast of the United States is about to be nuked. 

This seems to me to be an obscene overreaction. We have, of course, weathered bigger crisis's with North Korea. Obviously, we were at war with them once and have been at peace with them since 1953, despite several serious incidents. All of those incidents were much more severe than anything that has happened in recent history, since Donald Trump was elected. 

In 1968, one of our spy ships was captured. No war happened. In 1969 North Korea shot down one of our EC-121's killing 31 US servicemen. No war happened.  In 1976 two US Army officers were murdered in cold blood as they were cutting down a tree in the DMZ. In 2009 two American journalists were captured and imprisoned by North Korea. No war happened. And in the most serious incident since the Korean War, North Korea attacked and sunk a South Korean corvette, the ROKS Cheonan, killing 46 people. Guess what? No war happened. 

The idea that war will all of a sudden happen because Trump said a few words that happened to be a bit more over the top then normal is stupid. Indeed, Trump didn't do anything but use some of the same rhetoric that North Korea has used against us for decades.  If war does come, it's not going to be because of Trump talking to the media. 

The Washington Post.

I do have to say that there is something now that is different than all the incidents in the past. North Korea has greatly exceeded the projections on how long it was going to take for them to get nuclear weapons that can hit the United States. According to the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), North Korea is now producing nuclear weapons small enough to be placed on their missiles. The analysis also says that North Korea now has 60 nuclear weapons, a major increase compared to the past.

North Korea has also made quite a bit of progress on their ballistic missile program as well. They have conducted quite a few missile tests and they have been mostly successful. The last hurtle is a reentry vehicle and they are likely to pass that soon. Once they do, they will have a nuclear weapon that can hit most of the United States. 

The real question then is if that is an acceptable to the United States. Having an unstable regime that hates the United States armed with nukes is not something we will want. Doing something about it is a problem as well. If we attack North Korea we risk them attacking us with their nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. If we don't attack North Korea we risk the same thing with the additional threat of them having the initiative. 

In short, there are no good options at all. The only good outcome is that North Korea gives up their nuclear weapons. Since they believe that those weapons are the only thing that is preventing regime change, plus all the prestige and credibility those weapons provide them, it seems unlikely that they will go along with any deal. 

Still, diplomats have been hard at work at trying to resolve the crisis. As Donald Trump has been threatening the stick against North Korea his Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has been offering the carrot. These diplomatic efforts have gone unnoticed by the national media but they have been happening and may give the North Koreans an "out". Let us hope that the Koreans see the light and take the chance they are being given.

All in all though, I am skeptical that war will happen. After all, we have been through this song and dance before. North Korea has long threatened the United States with destruction since the very moment they gained nuclear weapons. The stakes are a bit higher now, but I doubt the outcome is going to be any different.