Hundreds of ISIS fighters are making their last stand in a small town called al-Ayadiya

Iraqi forces send mortar rounds at al-Ayadiya. Reuters.

Hundreds of ISIS fighters are making their last stand in a small town called al-Ayadiya. Reuters. The militants had fled from their stronghold in Tal-Afar, which fell this week. Iraqi forces are waiting until al-Ayadiya falls before they declare victory but they fighting has been viscous. Iraqi commanders are saying the fighting for al-Ayadiya has been more brutal than the battle for Mosul and that breaching the gates of the city is like breaching the "gates of hell". Though Iraqi forces greatly outnumber the militants in al-Ayadiya, Federal police are being deployed to reinforce them. Iraqi troops are also waiting for attrition from artillery and airstrikes to reduce the number of ISIS fighters left in the town. 

My Comment:

I was kind of wondering why Tal-Afar fell so quickly. I had expected that battle to last for weeks, maybe even months, but the city was liberated in about a week. Tal-Afar had tough, battle hardened and utterly brutal fighters so I was extremely surprised when the city fell so quickly. The battle barely lasted a week.

Now we know why. The ISIS fighters that were in Tal-Afar fled to al-Ayadiya. I am not sure why. You would think that the bigger city of Tal-Afar would be better suited for a last stand than the comparatively smaller town of al-Ayadiya, but I guess not. 

Still, it's not like fleeing to al-Ayadiya really helped ISIS. They are all doomed anyways. There isn't going to be any chance of relief or rescue. They are still cut off and they have more than 50,000 troops arrayed against them. They are all going to die or get captured and the only question now is how long it will take. 

I don't know how long this battle will last. It seems like al-Ayadiya is a buzzsaw that the Iraqis don't want to throw their troops into. They are wise to use artillery and airstrikes to weaken ISIS forces and they can afford to wait to attack. Laying siege to the town will weaken ISIS while reducing Iraqi casualties. Pretty soon ISIS will run out of food, water and ammunition. Once that happens al-Ayadiya will no longer be a buzzsaw and they can easily take the city. 

The question is how long Iraq wants to wait. They aren't really threatened by further ISIS offensives but the more time they spend trying to take al-Ayadiya is time they aren't liberating ISIS pockets in central Iraq or the border region. Given how horrible the past decade or so has been for Iraq, I am sure they want to end this war as soon as possible. 

As for ISIS, you can really tell that they are collapsing. Losing Tal-Afar isn't the only major defeat they have suffered lately. They were also kicked out of the Lebanon/Syria border region as well. That incident was controversial to say the least because both countries allowed a convoy of ISIS fighters, 300 strong, to leave and rejoin the main Syrian ISIS armies. 

I think that is a huge mistake and the battles in Iraq show why. Current Iraqi strategy, backed by President Trump and the Pentagon,says that ISIS should not be allowed to ever retreat. Instead they are either to surrender or be utterly destroyed. Those 300 fighters will rejoin the ISIS military and will continue to kill. Everything would have been better if Syria and Lebanon had simply killed these fighters. 

Still, the point was that this was the first time that ISIS actually made a deal with someone. They essentially surrendered under good terms, but surrendered nonetheless. In the past, ISIS would not have done this in Syria, but now they have little choice. I think that these really are the last days for ISIS in Syria and Iraq..