Russia is advancing to Pokrovsk and could take the city soon, which would threaten to collapse the front.

 

An Ukrainian artillery unit firing on Russians near Pokrovsk last month. UnHeard/Getty.

Russia is advancing rapidly to the critical city of Pokrovsk and if they take the city it could cause a collapse of Ukrainian troops in the Donbas region. UnHeard. The war in Ukraine was long stuck in an attritional warfare stage but has evolved now to rapid advances for the Russians. They are now advancing close to the city of Pokrovsk, which is a major transportation hub in the region. Taking the city would prevent their efforts to supply and reinforce their troops in Donbass. The rapid advances underscore the failure of the Kursk offensive, which took limited territory in Russia but exhausted Ukraine's reserves. If Pokrovsk falls there would be no major obstacles for Russia until they hit the Dnieper River, especially if the Ukrainian military collapses.  

My Comment:

It's clear that the war in Ukraine has entered a new phase. For a long time the war was one of attrition with only minor gains on either side. It was grinding warfare with heavy casualties on both sides but only rare gains of territory. 

That has obviously changed now. Russia has taken quite a bit of territory in the last few months and is advancing rapidly on multiple fronts. And Ukraine launched a major attack of their own in the Kursk region. After a long stalemate the front lines are moving again. 

I do think that the Kursk offensive essentially lost the war for Ukraine. They were losing regardless, but the fact that they launched a rather pointless offensive into Russia itself will advance the failure. That offensive sent their best troops to a strategically unimportant area of Russia and those units are getting mauled. They would have much better served as a reserve force that could have been rushed to the area around Pokrovsk. This could have delayed Russia's offensive, perhaps to the point where winter would set in and slow both sides due to "mud season". 

But now? Ukraine is pretty much screwed. Russia has penetrated Ukraine's main defensive lines and there isn't much standing in the way of the Russians and Pokrovsk. I don't think they are going to be able to stop it and once it happens Ukraine is going to be cut off. Taking the city would cut off a major salient to the southeast of the city and would threaten to do the same thing to the north if Russia manages to advance in Chasiv Yar. Both salient could turn into major cauldrons if the the front lines don't collapse immediately. 

If they do collapse? Then Russia could advance all the way to the Dnieper River and many Ukrainian units could be cut off completely. It wouldn't be the end of the war, not by a long shot, but it would be a massive blow to the Ukrainians. And it might cause Ukraine to pull troops from other fronts and allow the Russians to advance there as well. 

With that being said Ukraine is said to be building up forces near the Zaporizhzhia front. It's possible that they are going to launch another attack there, which would be insanity. But I have said for awhile now that they are obsessed with causing a nuclear incident and capturing the nuclear power plant there could cause that. Regardless, those forces would be better served in the Donbas region. 

What can Ukraine do to stop this? Not much. They didn't have much in reserve before the Kursk offensive. They could pull troops from the border with Belarus but the military build up there is going to make that a very risky proposition. I still don't think the Belarusians will join the war, but they could and that greatly limits Ukraine's options. I really don't think that Ukraine can fix the situation in Donbass and the best move would probably be to withdraw now while they still can...