Israel and Hezbollah are getting even closer to war after major cross border attacks from Hezbollah.

 

A damaged house in Israel. AP. 

Israel and Hezbollah are getting even closer to war after a major cross border attack from Hezbollah. AP. Hundreds of rockets and missiles hit Israel across the border with Lebanon, with some weapons hitting near Haifa. Several civilians have been wounded in the Hezbollah attacks. Hezbollah is responding to the Israeli pager and radio attacks, along with many airstrikes including one that killed a senior Hezbollah commander, Ibrahim Akil. Hezbollah said that there is an "open ended battle" between Israel and Hezbollah. Low level fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has occurred since the October 7th Hamas attack, but the pace of attacks between both sides have massively increased. The UN has said that the region is on the "verge of catastrophe". 

My Comment:

I wrote about the upcoming war between Hezbollah and Israel last week, but it seems like it's getting a lot more likely now. The tit for tat attacks between both sides is continuing but it seems like the pace is increasing quite a bit. Indeed, Hezbollah is launching a lot more rocket than they have at any other time in the war. 

Hezbollah is even using new weapons, the Fadi 1 & 2 missiles. Those missiles aren't particularly advanced but they are more accurate and powerful than some of the other rockets they have been using. Both weapons are modified Syrian weapons and it shows how powerful Hezbollah can be. Most terror groups can't modify weapons like this and Hezbollah is joining the ranks of the Houthis for very advanced terror groups. 

Hezbollah is still taking the worst of it. They suffered a massive twin blow from the pager and then radio attacks and their communications have to be entirely disrupted. They can no longer trust any electronics. Plus they had a major blow to their leadership with the death of Ibrahim Akil. The fact that they were able to launch one of the largest rocket strikes of the war shows how resilient they are. It's actually pretty impressive given how hard the Israelis are pushing right now. 

As for Israel, it seems very clear that they are going hard on Hezbollah. I don't think there is any question that there will be a lot more airstrikes, the Israelis are obviously going to continue that. The real question is if Israel will invade Lebanon itself. It seems a lot more likely today than it was last week, given that the airstrikes do not seem to be stopping Hezbollah. 

What is curious is why now? Hamas is not the threat they used to be but Israel is still in major combat in Gaza. Starting a new front while you still have a good portion of your troops bogged down in Gaza does not make a whole lot of sense. and it is very possible that an out and out invasion would not go well for Israel. Hezbollah is dramatically more capable than Hamas ever was and the main Israeli advantage right now is that Hezbollah is on the backfoot from the pager attacks. 

It has been speculated that Israel had to launch the pager attacks as the explosives were about to be discovered. If so, the timing wasn't that great. I am guessing they would have preferred to wait until the Gaza war was over, but they had to launch it early.

So can the war be avoided? I just don't see it at this point. There is no diplomacy right now and both sides have a need for this war. Israel won't tolerate strikes on the border region anymore and Benjamin Netanyahu needs the war to stay in power. And Hezbollah needs to do anything they can to try and save some face after the embarrassment that was the pager attacks. Neither side is going to back down and there is a very good chance of a wider war. 

What I don't think will happen is the war dragging in other foreign powers. I do think the various militias in Iraq and Syria might get involved but I don't see Iran stepping into the fray after a major war was averted earlier this year. 

And I also don't think America would get involved in any war with Hezbollah either. The last thing the Biden-Harris administration wants is more damaging involvement with the Middle East. Middle America has no desire for a war and the pro-Hamas left, already infuriated with the Democrats for not being anti-Israel enough, would absolutely stay home on election day. Stranger things can happen, but I just don't see America getting involved.