Ukraine raises concerns about build up of troops at border with Belarus. Will Belarus join the war or is it another feint?

 

Ukrainian troops near the border with Belarus. Reuters.

Ukraine has raised concerns about a build up of troops at the border with Belarus. Reuters. Ukraine says that Belarus has concentrated troops including tanks, air defenses, engineering units along with special forces and possible former Wagner Group mercenaries. Ukraine also said they would not take hostile actions against Belarus. However, Belarus pointed out that Ukraine had 120,000 troops on the border with Belarus, 1/3rd of Ukraine's forces.

My Comment:

I'm fairly skeptical that this will amount to much. Belarus has made waves about joining the war before and it has mostly led to absolutely nothing. Russia did us Belarus to threaten Kiev during the early stage of the war but then pulled back when it was clear the force wasn't big enough to actually take the capital. There is no indication that Russia itself is doing so again at this time. 

Belarus does serve a function for Russia though. Ukraine has 120,000 troops on the border with Belarus and those troops have to be there just in case Belarus or Russia decide to invade from that direction. Belarus has to saber rattle for that to continue to be the case. Indeed, if Ukraine were to pull those troops out Belarus probably would invade. 

The problem with the idea that  Belarus is going to attack is the fact that they are pretty outnumbered if the numbers from Ukraine are right. Belarus has a small army, 60,000 regular troops, maybe less if you don't consider border units to be regular troops. And keep in mind they wouldn't be able to deploy all of them due to the fact that they have to keep a large force at their borders with NATO due to fear of an attack from them. Belarus doesn't have a bad army by former Soviet Republic standards, but they are absolutely not up to the standards of Russia or Ukraine. 

Without major backing from Russia I don't see how an attack from Belarus would succeed. Even if they used every single of their regular forces they would still be outnumbered by a 2-1 margin and to be brutally honest, without Russian help, Ukraine would have the superior force in terms of firepower and weapons. I don't know what the quality of the forces on the border are, I am guessing they are reserve units and mauled units rebuilding themselves, but I can't imagine even with that that a force smaller than 60,000 could overcome 120,000.

I actually think that Ukraine attacking Belarus is a lot more likely. Doing so would be a terrible idea as it would turn what is a quiet front into a major conflict and could lead to a general collapse. But you could make the same argument about the Kursk offensive. Ukraine is desperate and if they think attacking Belarus would help things they could do so. Though I don't see what advantage attacking Belarus would give Ukraine in the first place other than preventing Russia from invading in that direction. But again, I haven't seen much in the way to prove that. I guess it's possible that Ukraine could be convinced that Belarus is going to invade but that also seems very unlikely.

My guess is that these troop movements are just yet another feint. The chances of either side invading each other is pretty low but an attack from Belarus is just plausible enough that Ukraine has to react to it. I don't think an attack from Belarus is at all likely until we see actual Russian forces being deployed. And I also don't think Ukraine will do anything either.