My best guess of the current state of the race. 270 to win.
As you are certainly aware, the race for the White House is getting closer to a November conclusion. However it's hard to tell who is actually winning, especially in the wake of several new polls. Depending on which polls you are listening to, Harris is winning in a landslide, the race is tied or Trump is winning in a landslide and could take the popular vote.
Let's go through a few of the polls. Reuters has Harris up by 7 points (!), Morning Consult has her up by 5 and so does NBC News. However, CNN has the race as a tie and so does NYT/Siena. Quinnipiac has Trump with a comfortable 1 point lead while Atlas Intel has Trump with a 3.3 point lead. The state polling is all over the place but with the main swing states being the upper Midwest, where polling shows a tight race in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The state polls are flooded though with low quality polls, new polling companies and some obvious nonsense. If you cut through the fat though it seems clear that the southern swing states appear in Trump's column. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada all seem to be safe Trump states this year. If that's the case than Trump would only have to win one of the greyed-out swing states I posted in the map above, or win the at-large Nebraska district. I also think that Pennsylvania is pretty solidly in the Trump camp as well. Republicans have been working since 2020 to win back the state and Harris really screwed up by not picking Shapiro to be her running mate. I would be shocked if Harris won the state.
But that's if my take on the polling is right. What is my reasoning? I think that it's clear that the polling companies are still consistently missing Trump's strength. Trump is now polling better nationally than he did in 2016 and 2020 and we all know what happens in both cases. If the margin of error in the polling is correct, then Trump is actually way ahead right now and is sure to win.
How could Harris still win? Well, if the polling averages are perfect and there is no error in Trump's direction, she could potentially win. But she would either need to win all of the states I grayed out and keep the Nebraska district or she would have to somehow peel off a red state, like Texas or Florida, which seems like a pipe dream. I don't see that to be too likely. It's also possible that I am dead wrong on Pennsylvania and if I am that obviously changes things quite a bit as well.
So does this really offer much in the way of clarity? Not really. At some point you either have to trust the polls or go with your gut and instincts. I have more trust in that than I do the polls. My gut says that Trump wins and probably picks off at least one traditional blue state, with Virginia being the most likely.
And you also have to look at what the campaigns are doing. Trump seems to be a lot more confident than Harris. You don't see Harris campaigning in red states like Texas and Florida despite polls that indicate they are close. What you are seeing is Trump campaigning in places like New York, where he probably doesn't have a realistic chance of winning, but does have a chance of flipping house seats. You don't do that if you are behind in your internal polls.
The Harris campaign seems to be in a panic. There have been reports of infighting between staffers, poor internal polls showing Harris behind in Pennsylvania, second guessing of the VP pick and shrill calls to get out the vote and act like they are the underdogs. Some of that would be inherent to the system, but it seems like they are a lot less confident than they should be if the polling is legit.
I also think that the Harris is going to be blindsided by the Israel issue. I only have a few contacts with the anti-Israel far left but from what I understand they are quite upset about Harris and her lack of condemnation to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, including the pager and radio attacks that they describe as terrorism. This is a switch from the enthusiasm I saw among them when Biden was dropped and Harris was installed and it could cost them big in swing states. Michigan could be swung by this issue alone given the high number of activists and Muslims in the state.
So what is my prediction? I think Trump wins. And I think he does it on election day. Trump's path to victory is a lot easier and I don't buy that Harris is actually popular, especially given how terrible the Biden administration has been. Can I be wrong? I could be. I called 2016 right when everyone else got it wrong, but I was wrong in 2020, though due to the extreme circumstances and out and out fraud in that race, it might be forgivable. But I absolutely could be wrong about 2024 as well.
All I know is that there is little that I can do to win Trump the election. My vote is critical as I live in a swing state and I am going to give it to Trump. And I, of course, would suggest you to do the same. You shouldn't let the crazy polling this cycle demoralize you and you should vote no matter who you think is going to win.
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