Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump. Fox News/AP.
Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met together at Trump Tower in New York City. Fox News. Trump said that he and Zelensky had agreed that the war with Russia had to end and that he was going to push for a fair deal for both sides. He cited his good relationship with Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia. Zelensky had just met with Kamala Harris and, controversially, did a campaign event in Pennsylvania. Zelensky said he wanted to meet with both Trump and Harris because he wasn't sure who America was going to choose.
My Comment:
Man, what I wouldn't have given to be a fly on the wall for that meeting. Things have been awkward between Trump and Zelensky for awhile now. Trump obviously wants an end to the war while Zelensky wants it to continue, largely because if it doesn't, he's probably a dead man. Hardliners in his government could indeed take him out if he tries to negotiate a settlement with Putin.
So why did Zelensky meet with Trump? I think it's because he understands that Trump has a very good chance of winning in 2024 and burning bridges with him is not going to go well for him. He needs Trump to at least like him a little in case Trump wins, which is looking more likely now.
But I am sure that Zelensky wants Harris to win, for much as the same reason as why Putin wants her to win. Both Putin and Zelensky want the war to continue, though for obviously different reasons. Zelensky needs the war to continue so he can continue to breath and his only hope now is for the USA to get dragged into WWIII with Putin and that is dramatically more likely under Harris than Trump. Putin wants the war to continue because he's close to victory and has a real chance to defeat Ukraine utterly.
However, both sides should probably listen to Trump. If Ukraine cuts a deal they get to keep what is left of their country, they can stop the destruction of their people on the front line and they will probably get some kind of guarantee that the peace will hold. Russia will get to keep much of the territory they have taken, perhaps all, will keep Ukraine out of NATO and would probably get some sanctions relief from Trump. It's not the best outcome for either side but it should be one that both sides can live with.
And I think Trump would be able to get a deal done. It's probably his greatest strength as a politician, he's more than willing to cut a deal if you are reasonable but is also willing to hold a grudge if you don't. Russia certainly thinks that Trump is less predictable than Harris and is also at the same time more trustworthy. And Trump has a good relationship with both Zelensky and Putin and could be able to leverage that into a deal. Indeed, he's about the perfect person for the job.
However, the facts on the ground will probably make the whole discussion moot. Given how badly things appear to be going for Ukraine there is a real chance that Ukraine won't exist in its current form by election day, let alone inauguration day next year. They have been bled dry by Russia's attritional strategy and are losing ground on every front. Though it's not certain they have have a collapse across the front line, it's very possible. And if that happens, there would be little reason for Putin to make a deal.
It's sad too, because Ukraine had two chances to settle the war on relatively positive terms, for them at least. Once Russia pulled back from Kiev there as a real chance at peace but Boris Johnson torpedoed the deal. Again, they absolutely could have made a deal after Russia retreated in Kharkov but before the stupid summer offensive that essentially decided the war in Russia's favor last year. But they squandered both chances and it's very possible that they won't get a third chance, even with Trump's help.
Finally, I do have to wonder if the 2nd assassination attempt against Donald Trump came up in this discussion? Ryan Routh obviously had some very deep connections to Ukraine, though they claim that they had no involvement with the assassination attempt. Regardless, Trump almost died because he was skeptical of Ukraine funding and it's worth at least wondering if Ukraine had any involvement, and Trump had to be thinking about it. Like I said, it would have been a very interesting talk to watch...
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