Israel launches air strikes against targets in Lebanon in the wake of the pager and radio attacks. Is a new front opening in the war?

 

Smoke from an airstrike in Kfar Kila Lebanon. ABC News/Reuters.

Israel launched air strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in the wake of the pager and radio attacks. ABC News. Hundreds of targets in southern Lebanon were hit just a day after the 2nd round of sabotage attacks. Those attacks over two days involved explosives in pagers and radios and left at least 37 people dead and thousands wounded. Israel wishes to push back Hezbollah from the border as they have evacuated thousands of civilians from the region. Israeli officials are saying the war is entering a new phase and there are reports of troops being pulled from Gaza to redeploy to the northern border. Given the deployment and the vows from Hezbollah for a response, there are fears of a major war breaking out between Hezbollah and Israel. 

My Comment:

Looks like things are heating up in the northern border area in Israel. This is a major escalation in the region after the massive pager and radio bombing. Hezbollah has been damaged pretty severely by these attacks and now these airstrike have done more damage as well. 

Does that mean a major war is coming? I'm not sure. From what it sounds like the pager attack was launched because they had to do so because it was about to be discovered. I don't think it was the opening strikes of a new conflict, just an opportunity being taken. Indeed, if this had been the opening to a new conflict the troops would have been already moved, not in the process of doing so. 

Can Hezbollah do much about this? They did launch rockets at Israel and reportedly killed a couple of IDF soldiers but so far that's been about it. They do have a very large army and some decent conventional weapons but I don't see any evidence that they are building up more than normal. 

Indeed, it seems like they are on the backfoot right now. Though the pager and radio attacks didn't kill many people they did maim and cripple thousands of Hezbollah fighters. And it massively disrupted their communications, as right now they can't trust anything other than direct messages delivered by couriers. And that was before these airstrikes. I am sure Hezbollah will regroup but it will take them time. 

But I do think that it's likely that something will happen on the Hezbollah front. Hamas is no longer much of a threat and I think if they had given up their hostages the war would be over by now. Hezbollah is the one that still threatens Israel (along with the Houthis in Yemen). Netanyahu wants to bring the civilians back to northern Israel and he can't do it without taking the fight to Hezbollah. 

Still, there is a major question as to why they would open up a new front when they haven't finished off Hamas in Gaza. Though Hamas isn't capable of much anymore, it does seem odd to open up a major front against a much more powerful enemy before your first enemy has been utterly defeated. But it looks like that is what they are going to do. I guess there is a chance that this will continue to be status quo on the northern front, but it sure doesn't feel that way. 

I am sure the Biden administration will try and get Israel to back off, as a new front in the war would enrage the pro-Hamas faction of the Democratic Party and could cost Harris the election, if she even has a shot in the first place. Unfortunately for them, the Biden administration has almost zero influence on Israel now so Israel is going to do whatever it wants to do.