Donald Trump. Fox News.
A new poll shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris nationally in a New York Times/Siena college poll. Fox News. Trump beats the vice president by one point in the poll, in a 48 to 47% lead. The polling was similar to the last time this poll was taken in July, right after Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Trump had seen a dip in support after Kamala Harris entered the race but that did not show up in this poll. Harris did manage to claw back some support from traditional pro-Democrat demographics compared to Joe Biden but is well behind what other Democrats have gotten in previous years. Harris should also be concerned about 60% of voters wanting change and only 25% of those voters saying Harris would accomplish that, compared to 53% for Trump. The only good news for Harris in the poll is that Democrats hold an enthusiasm lead over Republicans at 91% compared to 85%.
The New York Times poll can be found here (paywalled).
My Comment:
This is fairly devastating for Kamala Harris. For the record in 2020 this poll showed Joe Biden 8 points ahead and was off about four points in terms of national vote total. Biden barely won with those margins so to see this for Harris is very bad news for her indeed.
The best case scenario for Harris is that the errors in the polling are corrected and this is basically accurate. But I don't see how she could possibly win if she is a point behind in the national vote. Republicans have an advantage in the Electoral College and a national lead means that Harris does not have a path unless something in the electorate has changed massively.
But if the poll has the same error in 2024 as it had in 2020? Then Harris is done. Completely. It would mean that Trump is up by five points nationally, which means not only is a victory ensured it means that Trump could start seeing the kinds of scenarios we were envisioning before Joe Biden dropped out. Blue states like New Jersey, Minnesota and New Mexico could flip red too, along with more traditional swing states that have trended blue, like New Hampshire and Virginia.
Of course this is just one poll, but it is in line with many others that show that the summer of vibes for Harris are at an end. Other polls show her still in the lead but doing much worse than she was after entering the race while the betting markets and Nate Silver's model are giving Trump an advantage. Silver's model has Trump at a 62% chance of winning. And keep in mind that the New York Times/Siena poll is one that is considered reliable.
So why has this happened? I think some of it generally was the polling companies giving Harris a few points for free to try and build momentum for her and that had to end at this point at the race if they want to keep any credibility in the future. Under this model the Harris vibes were never real and I am guessing that is a major factor.
But events have a lot to do with it as well. I think the RFK Jr. endorsement was huge as he was drawing more from Trump than Harris and he is bringing his substantial ground game on board as well. He also brought a lot of folks on board that were angry with Trump over the covid vaccines, but those people will be satisfied now as RFK Jr. looks to be involved in the campaign. Meanwhile the best endorsements the Harris camp can get are Dick and Liz Cheney, folks that were persona non grata among Republicans anyways and may even turn off a few Democrat voters who thought Dick Cheney was the devil during Bush's term.
Some of it too is the fact that Harris actually had to be seen in public. She had her convention speech and a disastrous interview on CNN and those served to remind Americans that she isn't a good speaker and they never liked her all that much.
Of course this is all leading to the debate this week. That debate could prove critical given that Trump is a decent debater and Harris is not. Harris had to drop out of the 2020 race due to her poor debate performance and the fact Tulsi Gabbard had her number. Gabbard is now assisting Trump which should give him an even larger advantage than he already has. Keep in mind Trump was able to destroy the political careers of Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden during his debates with them and all of them were more competent at it then Harris is.
On the other hand Harris is the benefactor of low expectations, I don't think anyone outside of the most rabid Democratic partisans believe that Harris has a chance of victory against Trump. If she manages to hold her own it could be a victory for her. But is it already too late?
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