Trump and Republicans are doing better with Hispanic voters than they have in decades.

 

Kamala Harris at a Hispanic outreach event. New York Post/Getty.

Donald Trump and the Republican Party are doing better with Hispanic voters than they have done in decades, and they could put Trump into the White House. New York Post. Democrats have won a majority of Hispanic votes since 2004, by at least 35 points. But that lead has been cut in recent elections. Joe Biden won only by 23 points, 60 to 37 points in 2020 and Harris is doing even worse if polling is accurate. Polls have Harris running 7 to 11 points less than Biden did among Hispanics, though she is still winning the group. Hispanics have many reasons to be upset with the Biden-Harris administration. A key factor is immigration, as many immigrants either travel through Hispanic areas or settle there and they bring crime and competition for jobs, which is reflected in Biden's approval rating among the group being at 39%. 

My Comment:

This is something that I can confirm personally. I work at a Hispanic majority workplace, despite not being Hispanic myself. And I can tell you that I know a few guys at work that are Hispanic and despise the Democrats. They aren't Trump supporters per se but they hate Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. And they are just as upset about illegal immigration as I am. Indeed, one of them had a FJB sticker on their Jeep before Biden dropped out of the race. 

And I think the article  is right about the reasons why. Most of these guys are either immigrants themselves or are 2nd generation American Citizens and aren't happy that these folks are being brought in to replace them. They do have to worry about crime and violence and also don't like having to compete with immigrants for housing and or jobs. 

Keep in mind that these folks aren't just competing with fellow Hispanics, they are competing with people across the world. Haitians are the latest group and I have heard more than a few disparaging remarks about them from my Hispanic coworkers. And it's not like all the various groups of Hispanics get along with each other at all times anyways. Mexicans are the majority of Hispanics and they do not always get along with the new waves of immigrants from Central and South America. 

But I think the article missed some of the reason why Democrats are bleeding support. I think much of it has to do with the fact that Hispanics tend to come from masculine "macho" cultures while the Democrats have gone fleeing from anything to do with masculinity. Indeed, the Democrats are pretty clearly the party for women, there's a reason the "childless cat lady" stereotype exists and I think it's turning off a lot of Hispanic men, just like it's turning of men of all races. 

Indeed, I think Kamala Harris is especially vulnerable as it would be an uphill battle to get Hispanics and men in general to accept female leadership. It's even worse that she went all in on a "boss girl" image that tends to remind folks of the chiding lectures they get from women like that. And it's not like Tim Walz is any better. For a guy that comes from the Midwest he strikes me as absurdly effeminate and not at all "macho". There isn't much here for Hispanics men to respect. Hispanic women might be a bit different but I also think they would be turned off by this as well. They are more into traditional gender roles that the "childless cat lady" demographic the Democrats are pandering to. 

Part of it too is Republicans warming up to Hispanics, with Mexicans especially being a favored group. Mexicans have a lot of traits that Republicans respect, like being hard working, reasonably religious and coming off as a lot better citizens as a lot of these illegal/semi-legal immigrants from countries like Venezuela, Afghanistan and Haiti. I don't think there are too many Republicans anymore that are out and out racist against Mexicans and all of us seem to realize that they could be extremely useful allies against both the Democrats and woke ideology in general. 

Hispanics aren't the only demographic that Republicans appear to be doing better with in 2024. Indeed, the article said the only group that Harris is doing better than Biden did was college educated whites (which baffles me since I'm in that group and can't stand Harris and I know she will not only do nothing for me but actively make things worse). Everyone else appears to not like Harris and she is losing support other key demographic groups, like African Americans, Jews and Asians. 

And, again, she's losing men in general. Harris being unlikeable to men is something that crosses over different cultures. The "brat girl summer", the chiding lectures, the lack of charisma and an effeminate weirdo as a VP pick have all hurt Harris among men. But men also respect competence and that has been extremely lacking in the Biden-Harris White  House. If Harris loses in 2024, which I think she will, it will be because she turned off men of all racial groups. 

Full scale of the impact of Hurricane Helene becoming apparent, North Carolina devastated.

 

A resident of North Caroline examines the damage of the disaster. BBC/Reuters. 

The full scale of the impact of Hurricane Helene is becoming apparent as North Carolina has been devastated. BBC. In one county alone, Buncombe, 30 people are dead and scores are missing. The level of damage in that county has been described as 'biblical". Nation-wide 105 people are confirmed to have died since the hurricane made landfall in Florida last Thursday but that number is expected to rise, possibly dramatically. The majority of deaths occurred in North and South Carolina where the storm caused extensive flooding. Rescue operations are being conducted by helicopter as so many roads were damaged, blocked or destroyed in the storm. Thousands of people are without power and there are concerns about food and water for the survivors. 

Horrific Flooding yesterday in Black Mountain and Swannanoa, North Carolina.
Human impacts from Helene in WNC will rival Hurricane Katrina based on the hell I’ve seen the last 48 hours.

📍Black Mountain, NC pic.twitter.com/pFK8K5RJdf

— Billy Bowling  𝕏 (@babowling12) September 28, 2024

 

Went to help in the Lake Lure/Chimney Rock area today, and it’s hard to describe - never seen anything like this. Post apocalyptic. It’s so overwhelming you don’t even know how to fathom what recovery looks like, let alone where to start. Going to be a long path to recovery that… pic.twitter.com/HnyxwyQB76

— Tariq Scott Bokhari (@FinTechInnov8r) September 29, 2024

My Comment:

This is a story that flew under the radar until today. I think most of us outside of the affected area assumed that the situation was not that bad as the place where the Hurricane hit, Florida, did not seem to be badly damaged. However, there were rumblings that things were very bad in North Carolina and that has been completely confirmed. 

The story went viral on social media and we finally got some real coverage of the damage that has occurred due to Hurricane Helene. The media essentially had to be shamed into covering it as people in the area that still had power and internet access were furious that they were being ignored. The same thing happened with the federal government, which also seemed to be asleep. 

Indeed, they still seem to be asleep. Biden has finally made a statement but the folks in North Carolina are reporting little help from the federal government. To be completely fair, much of that has to do with the fact that the logistics of this situation are a disaster in itself. So many roads have been destroyed or swept away it's going to be absurdly hard to get aid in. This is up in the mountains and once a road is destroyed or damaged it is hard to say the least to reopen. 

Still, it's not like the Biden White House has been good at disaster management. They failed in East Palestine Ohio, where they had to be shamed to even do anything. And the massive wildfire in Hawaii? They mishandled that one too. And I have no reason to believe that they will do better during this disaster. Indeed, Donald Trump is already planning on visiting Georgia tomorrow, but I have heard no evidence that Biden or Harris will be doing so. 

Keep in mind that a lot of people are still at risk. Asheville is probably the largest city in danger right now. Almost 100,000 live in the city and there is no power or city water there now. Food is a major concern as well, and if things aren't fixed with sanitation soon, disease could be a major problem as well. It's to the point where the city should be evacuated if possible, but how can they do that? Take them all out by helicopter? 

And Asheville is just the biggest city affected. What about all the smaller towns and cities that are even more cut off than Asheville and aren't getting as much attention? I worry for the folks in those towns, it might be awhile before they are rescued. 

Though this disaster isn't unprecedented, Asheville was largely destroyed in fairly similar circumstances back during the 1916 Charleston Hurricane, it's fairly surprising that the area was so devastated. You don't think of Western North Carolina when you think of hurricanes. And though the folks may have been somewhat prepared for a major storm, I don't think anyone could have prepared for this level of flooding. 

Though it is probably in bad taste to mention the political impact this disaster could have while the disaster is still ongoing, it's probably necessary. North Carolina was supposedly a swing state and this disaster could have unpredictable effects. Given the poor federal response so far and the fact that Harris is an incumbent VP, she could be hurt in the state. But the election could also be affected by the massive disruptions caused by the storm. It's about a month to the election, and it's very possible they won't have things up and running by the time the election comes. 

Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Zelenksy, and says the war between Ukraine and Russia needs to end.

 

Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump. Fox News/AP.

Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met together at Trump Tower in New York City. Fox News. Trump said that he and Zelensky had agreed that the war with Russia had to end and that he was going to push for a fair deal for both sides. He cited his good relationship with Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia. Zelensky had just met with Kamala Harris and, controversially, did a campaign event in Pennsylvania. Zelensky said he wanted to meet with both Trump and Harris because he wasn't sure who America was going to choose. 

My Comment:

Man, what I wouldn't have given to be a fly on the wall for that meeting. Things have been awkward between Trump and Zelensky for awhile now. Trump obviously wants an end to the war while Zelensky wants it to continue, largely because if it doesn't, he's probably a dead man. Hardliners in his government could indeed take him out if he tries to negotiate a settlement with Putin. 

So why did Zelensky meet with Trump? I think it's because he understands that Trump has a very good chance of winning in 2024 and burning bridges with him is not going to go well for him. He needs Trump to at least like him a little in case Trump wins, which is looking more likely now. 

But I am sure that Zelensky wants Harris to win, for much as the same reason as why Putin wants her to win. Both Putin and Zelensky want the war to continue, though for obviously different reasons. Zelensky needs the war to continue so he can continue to breath and his only hope now is for the USA to get dragged into WWIII with Putin and that is dramatically more likely under Harris than Trump. Putin wants the war to continue because he's close to victory and has a real chance to defeat Ukraine utterly. 

However, both sides should probably listen to Trump. If Ukraine cuts a deal they get to keep what is left of their country, they can stop the destruction of their people on the front line and they will probably get some kind of guarantee that the peace will hold. Russia will get to keep much of the territory they have taken, perhaps all, will keep Ukraine out of NATO and would probably get some sanctions relief from Trump. It's not the best outcome for either side but it should be one that both sides can live with. 

And I think Trump would be able to get a deal done. It's probably his greatest strength as a politician, he's more than willing to cut a deal if you are reasonable but is also willing to hold a grudge if you don't. Russia certainly thinks that Trump is less predictable than Harris and is also at the same time more trustworthy. And Trump has a good relationship with both Zelensky and Putin and could be able to leverage that into a deal. Indeed, he's about the perfect person for the job. 

However, the facts on the ground will probably make the whole discussion moot. Given how badly things appear to be going for Ukraine there is a real chance that Ukraine won't exist in its current form by election day, let alone inauguration day next year. They have been bled dry by Russia's attritional strategy and are losing ground on every front. Though it's not certain they have have a collapse across the front line, it's very possible. And if that happens, there would be little reason for Putin to make a deal. 

It's sad too, because Ukraine had two chances to settle the war on relatively positive terms, for them at least. Once Russia pulled back from Kiev there as a real chance at peace but Boris Johnson torpedoed the deal. Again, they absolutely could have made a deal after Russia retreated in Kharkov but before the stupid summer offensive that essentially decided the war in Russia's favor last year. But they squandered both chances and it's very possible that they won't get a third chance, even with Trump's help. 

Finally, I do have to wonder if the 2nd assassination attempt against Donald Trump came up in this discussion? Ryan Routh obviously had some very deep connections to Ukraine, though they claim that they had no involvement with the assassination attempt. Regardless, Trump almost died because he was skeptical of Ukraine funding and it's worth at least wondering if Ukraine had any involvement, and Trump had to be thinking about it. Like I said, it would have been a very interesting talk to watch... 

Donald Trump confirms that he is under threat from Iran.

 

Iranians continue to venerate General Qassem Soleimani. USA Today/Reuters

Donald Trump and the US government have confirmed that there is an active assassination plot against the former President and other US officials. USA Today. Trump confirmed on social media about the threats made against his life by Iran. Though no evidence has yet emerged that Iran was involved in the two assassination attempts on Trump's life, it is believed that Iran would attempt to assassinate Trump if they can and are plotting to do so. Iran wants revenge for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani by the Trump Administration in January of 2020. Iran has denied any plots but they have been involved in a plot against former Ambassador and National Security Advisor John Bolton. It is unclear if the Trump briefing was a reiteration of old threats or if there is a new threat. 

A video posted in 2022 on an Iranian website has gone viral in the wake of the threat which shows an CG created dramatization of an assassination attempt on Donald Trump. 

This was posted on the Ayatollah’s website. I guess we should expect nothing less from a terrorist regime. My father had Iran almost bankrupt… then the Biden/Harris administration game them billions making the world a far more dangerous place. Enough! pic.twitter.com/THucg4ASID

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) September 25, 2024

Donald Trump made comments about the threat on X and Truth Social. 

 

Big threats on my life by Iran. The entire U.S. Military is watching and waiting. Moves were already made by Iran that didn’t work out, but they will try again. Not a good situation for anyone. I am surrounded by more men, guns, and weapons than I have ever seen before. Thank you…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 25, 2024

My Comment:

This is a very serious situation and one that I don't think has a precedent in American elections. If an attempt on Trump is made, even if it doesn't succeed, it could lead to a major war with Iran. And for once it would be totally justified. Trying to assassinate a former president during an election season is a casus belli for a war if I have ever heard one. 

The assassination of General Soleimani is cited as the reason why they are going after Trump. I think that is a major factor. Iran lost a ton of face when Soleimani was killed and he remains a folk hero in Iran. Having him get killed was both a huge blow to their military plans as he was not replaceable, it was hugely embarrassing. 

But I don't think that is the only reason why Iran wants Trump dead. They probably greatly prefer a Kamala Harris presidency. For one, she will be as weak as Biden was and is more inclined to be easy on Iran. Trump will obviously be tough in Iran as he was in his first term, including ending the much maligned Iran nuclear deal. And that was before they put a hit on him! 

How serious is the threat? I'd say fairly serious. Iran has sleeper agents in America, both their own forces and their Hezbollah proxies and even if they didn't our border is completely open and they could easily get some into the country. They have the means and motive, the real question is if they are going to get the opportunity. 

The good news is that the failed assassination attempts against Trump work against Iran. Certainly Iran will have a much more difficult time with any attempt now that security has been tightened dramatically. Had they been the first to try they might have succeeded, but now it will be a lot more difficult. 

What would happen if such an attack were to happen? Well, hopefully Trump would be ok, but even if he is there is a real chance of a war between the United States and Iran. I mean, there would have to be right? And I think it would be a certainty if Trump was injured or killed in an attack directed by Iran. I know I would be baying for blood. 

But that doesn't mean that an attack will happen. It's possible that Iran will back down from the attempt and it's also very possible that they simply can't pull it off. It's fairly difficult to launch an attack on a major presidential candidate like this and it certainly seems like Trump himself has nine lives, he's had three assassination attempts against him so far and they have all failed miserably. Security might be too tight now, at least that is my hope. 

As for Trump himself, he seems to be handling this well. He understands that his life is in danger but he isn't fundementally changing the way he does things. He's still out there shaking hands with people and giving speeches. It does make me wonder how Kamala Harris would act if the threat was against her, I doubt she would handle it as well. Indeed, here's Trump talking about the threat in a recent speech:

BREAKING: Trump- “No threat will shake me, no enemy will intimidate me, and I have never been more determined.” pic.twitter.com/FAkWAyGRw3

— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) September 25, 2024

Finally, I have to say that it is possible that Trump himself wouldn't be the target for this attack. John Bolton was mentioned as someone who has been targeted before and could be again, along with other former members of the Trump administration. JD Vance, high ranking politicians and even Trump's family could be at threat...  

What to make of the sorry state of national polling for the 2024 election?

 

My best guess of the current state of the race. 270 to win. 

As you are certainly aware, the race for the White House is getting closer to a November conclusion. However it's hard to tell who is actually winning, especially in the wake of several new polls. Depending on which polls you are listening to, Harris is winning in a landslide, the race is tied or Trump is winning in a landslide and could take the popular vote. 

Let's go through a few of the polls. Reuters has Harris up by 7 points (!), Morning Consult has her up by 5 and so does NBC News. However, CNN has the race as a tie and so does NYT/Siena. Quinnipiac has Trump with a comfortable 1 point lead while Atlas Intel has Trump with a 3.3 point lead. The state polling is all over the place but with the main swing states being the upper Midwest, where polling shows a tight race in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  

The state polls are flooded though with low quality polls, new polling companies and some obvious nonsense. If you cut through the fat though it seems clear that the southern swing states appear in Trump's column. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada all seem to be safe Trump states this year. If that's the case than Trump would only have to win one of the greyed-out swing states I posted in the map above, or win the at-large Nebraska district. I also think that Pennsylvania is pretty solidly in the Trump camp as well. Republicans have been working since 2020 to win back the state and Harris really screwed up by not picking Shapiro to be her running mate. I would be shocked if Harris won the state. 

But that's if my take on the polling is right. What is my reasoning? I think that it's clear that the polling companies are still consistently missing Trump's strength. Trump is now polling better nationally than he did in 2016 and 2020 and we all know what happens in both cases. If the margin of error in the polling is correct, then Trump is actually way ahead right now and is sure to win. 

How could Harris still win? Well, if the polling averages are perfect and there is no error in Trump's direction, she could potentially win. But she would either need to win all of the states I grayed out and keep the Nebraska district or she would have to somehow peel off a red state, like Texas or Florida, which seems like a pipe dream. I don't see that to be too likely. It's also possible that I am dead wrong on Pennsylvania and if I am that obviously changes things quite a bit as well. 

So does this really offer much in the way of clarity? Not really. At some point you either have to trust the polls or go with your gut and instincts. I have more trust in that than I do the polls. My gut says that Trump wins and probably picks off at least one traditional blue state, with Virginia being the most likely. 

 And you also have to look at what the campaigns are doing. Trump seems to be a lot more confident than Harris. You don't see Harris campaigning in red states like Texas and Florida despite polls that indicate they are close. What you are seeing is Trump campaigning in places like New York, where he probably doesn't have a realistic chance of winning, but does have a chance of flipping house seats. You don't do that if you are behind in your internal polls. 

The Harris campaign seems to be in a panic. There have been reports of infighting between staffers, poor internal polls showing Harris behind in Pennsylvania, second guessing of the VP pick and shrill calls to get out the vote and act like they are the underdogs. Some of that would be inherent to the system, but it seems like they are a lot less confident than they should be if the polling is legit. 

I also think that the Harris is going to be blindsided by the Israel issue. I only have a few contacts with the anti-Israel far left but from what I understand they are quite upset about Harris and her lack of condemnation to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, including the pager and radio attacks that they describe as terrorism. This is a switch from the enthusiasm I saw among them when Biden was dropped and Harris was installed and it could cost them big in swing states. Michigan could be swung by this issue alone given the high number of activists and Muslims in the state. 

So what is my prediction? I think Trump wins. And I think he does it on election day. Trump's path to victory is a lot easier and I don't buy that Harris is actually popular, especially given how terrible the Biden administration has been. Can I be wrong? I could be. I called 2016 right when everyone else got it wrong, but I was wrong in 2020, though due to the extreme circumstances and out and out fraud in that race, it might be forgivable. But I absolutely could be wrong about 2024 as well. 

All I know is that there is little that I can do to win Trump the election. My vote is critical as I live in a swing state and I am going to give it to Trump. And I, of course, would suggest you to do the same. You shouldn't let the crazy polling this cycle demoralize you and you should vote no matter who you think is going to win. 

Department of Justice releases letter from Ryan Routh, who tried to ambush Donald Trump.

 

Ryan W. Routh, who had set up an ambush with a rifle at Trump's golf course. Fox News/Reuters. 

The Department of Justice released a letter from Ryan Routh, the man who tried to assassinate Donald Trump. Fox News. The letter was given to the FBI by a witness who was mailed it months ago. In the letter Routh accepted responsibility for the attack and said he was indeed trying to assassinate Trump. He also offered a $150,000 bounty to "finish the job". The release has come under withering criticism, including from former Attorney General Bill Barr. Barr said that releasing the letter was rash, served no purpose and would only incite further violence. He also questioned why the information would be released unredacted saying that there was more than enough evidence to hold Routh without bail. 

My Comment:

I was debating posting this for several reasons. The first is that I am afraid that Facebook will nuke the link if I post it. That happened the last time I wrote about Ryan Routh and his assassination attempt. I received no explanation why my post was removed and it showed no actual policy violations. Hopefully that won't happen again and I will avoid using the word "assassination". 

The other problem is that I do think that the statement by Routh is an incitement. He's arguing for others to try and succeed where he failed. It's very possible that someone could see his letter and decide to take him up on the offer. Especially since he supposedly put up a bounty. Though it would obviously be unlikely to collect, to say the least, given his current incarceration, it's still possible some nutjob could see the offer and take it seriously. And it's even possible that there is someone out their that would pay given how uncertain we are if there was a wider conspiracy targeting Trump. 

In the end I decided to write the blog post. The letter is already out there and being discussed by millions of people on social media and the release raises major questions about the DOJ. I think discussing that is important for pretty obvious reasons. I sincerely hope that I don't contribute to the problem but this is very important to discuss. 

Releasing this is either one of two things. The first possibility is that this is just gross incompetence by the DOJ. It's possible that they either didn't read the letter closely or just didn't realize what the implications are. Maybe they think that the letter is harmless and that Trump isn't at risk for further assassination attempts. 

Of course that doesn't make any sense. What does make sense is that this was malice. They released this hoping that someone would see this and take Routh up on his offer. They hate Donald Trump and want him to be assassinated. That's the other theory and the one that makes more sense. Though we should be reminded of Hanlon's razor, which states you shouldn't assume malice when stupidity is just as possible. 

Either way, this is a fairly disturbing incident from the DOJ. Either they are grossly incompetent or they are actively encouraging further assassination. It's possible that they are even involved in one or more plots against Trump. None of those options are good, but the one thing we can be clear is that the powers that be are not acting in the best interests of President Trump. 

I do fear that there could be further assassination attempts on Trump, even without this letter. The chances are even higher now, but they were high before. The media has whipped the left into a frenzy with their lies about Trump. Trump's really just a run of the mill Republican President with a better foreign policy and is skeptical of immigration. He isn't going to end democracy or put Project 2025 into place, he's just going to be like he was in 2016-2020. But gullible people on the left really believe that he will be a tyrant and that could lead to further attacks. 

I think that the Democrats and the media are responsible for this. Maybe even directly. They certainly hate Donald Trump and are willing to lie about him to keep him from power. Indeed, they hardly even covered the 2nd assassination attempt and went right back to negative coverage over Trump. If something happens where Trump is hurt or, God forbid, killed, and it isn't from a foreign agent, I am going to blame them. 

Of course we don't know if Ryan Routh is a foreign agent or not. Routh had ties to both Iran and Ukraine, two countries that were recently named by Congressman Matt Gaetz as having assassin teams working against Trump. It's surprising that that kind of thing isn't being publicized but his letter threatening Trump is... 

Israel and Hezbollah are getting even closer to war after major cross border attacks from Hezbollah.

 

A damaged house in Israel. AP. 

Israel and Hezbollah are getting even closer to war after a major cross border attack from Hezbollah. AP. Hundreds of rockets and missiles hit Israel across the border with Lebanon, with some weapons hitting near Haifa. Several civilians have been wounded in the Hezbollah attacks. Hezbollah is responding to the Israeli pager and radio attacks, along with many airstrikes including one that killed a senior Hezbollah commander, Ibrahim Akil. Hezbollah said that there is an "open ended battle" between Israel and Hezbollah. Low level fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has occurred since the October 7th Hamas attack, but the pace of attacks between both sides have massively increased. The UN has said that the region is on the "verge of catastrophe". 

My Comment:

I wrote about the upcoming war between Hezbollah and Israel last week, but it seems like it's getting a lot more likely now. The tit for tat attacks between both sides is continuing but it seems like the pace is increasing quite a bit. Indeed, Hezbollah is launching a lot more rocket than they have at any other time in the war. 

Hezbollah is even using new weapons, the Fadi 1 & 2 missiles. Those missiles aren't particularly advanced but they are more accurate and powerful than some of the other rockets they have been using. Both weapons are modified Syrian weapons and it shows how powerful Hezbollah can be. Most terror groups can't modify weapons like this and Hezbollah is joining the ranks of the Houthis for very advanced terror groups. 

Hezbollah is still taking the worst of it. They suffered a massive twin blow from the pager and then radio attacks and their communications have to be entirely disrupted. They can no longer trust any electronics. Plus they had a major blow to their leadership with the death of Ibrahim Akil. The fact that they were able to launch one of the largest rocket strikes of the war shows how resilient they are. It's actually pretty impressive given how hard the Israelis are pushing right now. 

As for Israel, it seems very clear that they are going hard on Hezbollah. I don't think there is any question that there will be a lot more airstrikes, the Israelis are obviously going to continue that. The real question is if Israel will invade Lebanon itself. It seems a lot more likely today than it was last week, given that the airstrikes do not seem to be stopping Hezbollah. 

What is curious is why now? Hamas is not the threat they used to be but Israel is still in major combat in Gaza. Starting a new front while you still have a good portion of your troops bogged down in Gaza does not make a whole lot of sense. and it is very possible that an out and out invasion would not go well for Israel. Hezbollah is dramatically more capable than Hamas ever was and the main Israeli advantage right now is that Hezbollah is on the backfoot from the pager attacks. 

It has been speculated that Israel had to launch the pager attacks as the explosives were about to be discovered. If so, the timing wasn't that great. I am guessing they would have preferred to wait until the Gaza war was over, but they had to launch it early.

So can the war be avoided? I just don't see it at this point. There is no diplomacy right now and both sides have a need for this war. Israel won't tolerate strikes on the border region anymore and Benjamin Netanyahu needs the war to stay in power. And Hezbollah needs to do anything they can to try and save some face after the embarrassment that was the pager attacks. Neither side is going to back down and there is a very good chance of a wider war. 

What I don't think will happen is the war dragging in other foreign powers. I do think the various militias in Iraq and Syria might get involved but I don't see Iran stepping into the fray after a major war was averted earlier this year. 

And I also don't think America would get involved in any war with Hezbollah either. The last thing the Biden-Harris administration wants is more damaging involvement with the Middle East. Middle America has no desire for a war and the pro-Hamas left, already infuriated with the Democrats for not being anti-Israel enough, would absolutely stay home on election day. Stranger things can happen, but I just don't see America getting involved. 

Israel launches air strikes against targets in Lebanon in the wake of the pager and radio attacks. Is a new front opening in the war?

 

Smoke from an airstrike in Kfar Kila Lebanon. ABC News/Reuters.

Israel launched air strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in the wake of the pager and radio attacks. ABC News. Hundreds of targets in southern Lebanon were hit just a day after the 2nd round of sabotage attacks. Those attacks over two days involved explosives in pagers and radios and left at least 37 people dead and thousands wounded. Israel wishes to push back Hezbollah from the border as they have evacuated thousands of civilians from the region. Israeli officials are saying the war is entering a new phase and there are reports of troops being pulled from Gaza to redeploy to the northern border. Given the deployment and the vows from Hezbollah for a response, there are fears of a major war breaking out between Hezbollah and Israel. 

My Comment:

Looks like things are heating up in the northern border area in Israel. This is a major escalation in the region after the massive pager and radio bombing. Hezbollah has been damaged pretty severely by these attacks and now these airstrike have done more damage as well. 

Does that mean a major war is coming? I'm not sure. From what it sounds like the pager attack was launched because they had to do so because it was about to be discovered. I don't think it was the opening strikes of a new conflict, just an opportunity being taken. Indeed, if this had been the opening to a new conflict the troops would have been already moved, not in the process of doing so. 

Can Hezbollah do much about this? They did launch rockets at Israel and reportedly killed a couple of IDF soldiers but so far that's been about it. They do have a very large army and some decent conventional weapons but I don't see any evidence that they are building up more than normal. 

Indeed, it seems like they are on the backfoot right now. Though the pager and radio attacks didn't kill many people they did maim and cripple thousands of Hezbollah fighters. And it massively disrupted their communications, as right now they can't trust anything other than direct messages delivered by couriers. And that was before these airstrikes. I am sure Hezbollah will regroup but it will take them time. 

But I do think that it's likely that something will happen on the Hezbollah front. Hamas is no longer much of a threat and I think if they had given up their hostages the war would be over by now. Hezbollah is the one that still threatens Israel (along with the Houthis in Yemen). Netanyahu wants to bring the civilians back to northern Israel and he can't do it without taking the fight to Hezbollah. 

Still, there is a major question as to why they would open up a new front when they haven't finished off Hamas in Gaza. Though Hamas isn't capable of much anymore, it does seem odd to open up a major front against a much more powerful enemy before your first enemy has been utterly defeated. But it looks like that is what they are going to do. I guess there is a chance that this will continue to be status quo on the northern front, but it sure doesn't feel that way. 

I am sure the Biden administration will try and get Israel to back off, as a new front in the war would enrage the pro-Hamas faction of the Democratic Party and could cost Harris the election, if she even has a shot in the first place. Unfortunately for them, the Biden administration has almost zero influence on Israel now so Israel is going to do whatever it wants to do. 

Teamsters Union declines to endorse either candidate in a major blow to Kamala Harris.

 

Teamster President Sean O'Brian. BBC/Getty. 

The Teamsters Union has declined to endorse either candidate in a major blow to the campaign of Kamala Harris. BBC. The Teamsters are the 4th largest union in the country and have 1.3 million members. The union said that neither candidate was committed to Teamsters issues and said there wasn't broad support for either candidate. However, polling indicates that Donald Trump has the support of a majority of Teamster Union members. The Harris campaign will be denied the resources and mobilization of the union. Trump came close to getting the endorsement, as union president Sean O'Brian spoke at the RNC convention, but did not secure it after Trump made comments with Elon Musk saying that striking workers should be fired. However, the Democrats did not even invite Sean O'Brian to speak. 

My Comment:

This is a pretty huge blow to the Kamala Harris campaign. The Teamsters Union is huge and they have been a reliable force in turnout for Democrats for years. This year it's not happening. There are a few smaller chapters that are trying to turn out Teamsters for Democrats but they do not have the support of the main union. 

It's disappointing that Trump didn't get the endorsement. It's clear that most teamsters support Trump. The polling said that Trump was getting around 60% support from the members and that's pretty huge. But the union itself declined after he made his comments about firing striking workers, a statement that wasn't going to be popular with unions. 

Regardless though, this is not good news for Harris. The Teamsters have a big presence in swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and there is a chance that an endorsement could have gotten her over the finish line in one or more of those states. Instead she isn't going to get any major help from the union itself, with only local chapters offering an endorsement. 

Of course with 60% of Teamsters supporting Trump, perhaps the endorsement wouldn't have helped that much either. Indeed, I think a lot of this non-endorsement is self defense by the leadership of the Teamsters. Had they endorsed Harris there would have been a revolt in the ranks and perhaps even a change in leadership. 

I do think this is another example of the country going through a political realignment. It's clear that the Democrats are no longer the party of blue collar workers. The Democrats really have nothing to offer the working class at this point other than competition from immigrants, legal and otherwise, higher rents and home prices and a huge helping of disrespect. Though the Teamsters didn't endorse the Republicans this time around, they might do so in the next election cycle... 

Exploding pagers in Lebanon deals severe blow to Hezbollah.

 

A car that was damaged in the attack. AP. 

Exploding pagers in Lebanon have dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah. AP. At least nine people have died, including an 8 year old girl, and thousands have been injured after thousands of pagers exploded at the same time across Lebanon and Syria. The pagers had been sabotaged with explosives and were set off by a signal. Hezbollah had ordered their members to switch from cell phones to pagers to avoid intelligence gathering from Israel. The attack was extremely complicated and involved exploiting the supply chain. Though Israel has not taken credit for the attack, Hezbollah and Lebanon have blamed Israel for the attack. Hezbollah has vowed retaliation for the attack. Iran's ambassador to Lebanon was also injured in the attack. 

My Comment:

This was a very important and devastating attack in Lebanon and one that will probably draw blowback. Thousands of people were injured and it's amazing that more people weren't killed. Given how devastating this blow was I am guessing that Hezbollah will be forced to respond. 

The attack is honestly incredibly impressive. Israel saw an opportunity and took it. They had to get these pagers into the supply line and they sent them across both Lebanon and Syria. The attack didn't kill many people but it did injure thousands of people, many of them members of Hezbollah. This kind of thing is mostly unprecedented and we haven't really seen anything like this before. 

I do worry that many of the people killed in this attack had nothing to do with Hezbollah. The charges in these pagers were not super powerful but they were big enough that someone standing next someone with it could have been injured or even killed as well. The one video I saw (which I won't post here) had a guy shopping in a market and it looked like the guy next to him, which could have just been some random guy, got hurt too. And were these pagers sold to the general public? Hezbollah were the main targets but they aren't the only people that could be using pagers. I don't know what the culture is in Lebanon, but I know pagers are popular with doctors here in the USA, so perhaps something similar happened here?

The problem with this is  that there is absolutely going to be blow back. Hezbollah has been damaged but not defeated and I am guessing they might even start a war with Israel after this. They would almost have to, they lost a lot of face by falling for this attack. 

This does seem like the kind of thing that is only going to work once. People across the world now will be checking their electronics for explosives. I don't think Israel will be able to do this again and I don't really think anyone else will try. 

The side benefit for this attack is that Hezbollah (and other Israeli adversaries in the region) are not going to be able to trust their communications devices. I am sure they will find a workaround eventually, but that is probably going to be cell phones and those can be monitored. I don't think they can move back to pagers after this... 

Putin orders Russia to increase their number of soldiers by 180,000.

 

Vladimir Putin. AP.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered an increase of the size of the military by 180,000 active duty troops. AP. Once the troops are mobilized and trained the number of active troops in Russia will be 1.5 million. Counting reserve forces, but not paramilitary forces, the total number of troops Russia will have will be 2.4 million, making them one of the largest militaries in the world. Russia uses both conscripts and volunteers in their military but in Ukraine most troops being used are volunteers, due to resistance for using conscripts in the war. Putin said that 700,000 troops were serving in the Ukraine conflict as of June.

My Comment:

A somewhat ominous story that could bode poorly for the state of the world. Russia clearly thinks they need more soldiers than they currently have but the question is why? Is it really because of Ukraine or are they worried about a wider conflict. 

Troop numbers have always been a problem for Russia in Ukraine. Indeed, much of the difficulty they have had in this war is because they didn't bring anywhere near as many troops as they needed. Russia only send 200,000 troops to fight in the initial phase of the war, and they split them up. They did pretty well considering but it isn't surprising they had to pull back from the Kiev front. 

I don't think that the issue is the Kursk incursion, which is currently being retaken. The problem Russia has is that they can't use their conscripts in Ukraine due to the law. However, Russia can absolutely use and is using, conscripts in the Kursk area. Those troops are directly defending Russian territory so they don't have a shortage of troops that can fight there. There were few troops deployed in the area when the attacked happened. 

Does Russia need more troops in Ukraine itself? Probably. They still are outnumbered by Ukraine's depleted and damaged forces. If they had more they could probably advance even quicker than they already are. Having a larger force would help if the Ukrainians manage to launch another offensive like they are rumored to be thinking, insanely enough. Plus it would help to be able to rotate troops out so they could rest and rearm. But it's not like they don't have enough troops now. They could always use more but 180,000 troops aren't going to matter that much. 

But I think this has less to do with Ukraine and more to do with NATO and the United States. Russia issued a warning last week that allowing Ukraine to use long-range precision missiles would be a casus belli for war against NATO, since only NATO troops can operate those weapons. It's very possible that Russia is not bluffing there and they want to build up their own forces just in case the Biden administration is dumb enough to approve the use of those long range weapons. 

The one thing I do know is that I doubt Russia will have any trouble getting volunteers for this force. The Russian military pays pretty well and there is a genuine wave of patriotism. Indeed, it's another reason why Ukraine's Kursk offensive was ill advised to say the least, Russians can rightly claim that their country is under attack and will be willing to defend it...

A 2nd assassin has made an attempt at Donald Trump's life.

 

Donald Trump arriving in Las Vegas this weekend. AP. 

A 2nd assassin has made an attempt on Donald Trump's life, this time at his gulf club in West Palm Beach Florida. AP. The former President was golfing and the assassin, identified as Ryan Wesley Routh, had a scoped rifle, supposedly an AK variant, and a GoPro video camera. The Secret Service saw a rifle poking through a fence line and fired at the assassin, driving him away. He was picked up in a neighboring county after a good Samaritan identified his vehicle. This is, obviously, the 2nd major attempt on Trump's life, with the first one coming in Pennsylvania where Trump had his ear grazed. It is unclear what the motivation for the attack was. The suspect was captured alive. 

The following news outlets have live updates pertaining to this story.

Associated Press

USA Today

BBC

Breitbart

The Guardian

As this is a breaking news story and as such, news will likely change quickly. Check the linked live updates for the latest news.

My Comment:

I don't think too many people are surprised with this, after the shooting in Pennsylvania, which Trump barely survived, I think everyone expected that someone would attempt this again. Given the huge threats against Trump both domestically and internationally, it was only a matter of time before it happened again. 

Thankfully the Secret Service was able to stop it this time. They were able to engage with the shooter before he even got a shot off. It doesn't reflect well that he was able to jump into an SUV and get away from the scene of the crime. I also think that if the shooter had been smart enough to not poke his rifle through the fenceline, he might have been undetected when Trump got into range. Thankfully, he was an idiot and the Secret Service was able to stop him. 

As for the attacker, it is good that he was taken alive. This time we should be able to determine his motive a lot easier and it will be harder for the powers that be to actually cover it up. Indeed, there are reports that this is the shooters X/Twitter account, though that hasn't been verified. If it is legit then it's clear that it was Trump's Ukraine policy that he was upset with, but time will tell if that was just an unfortunate person that both looks like the assassin and has the same name. 

Either way we are in unprecedented times. This is the 2nd attack in less than a season on the leading presidential candidate that has a very good chance of winning. It seems clear that Trump might not make it to election day. And if Trump does get killed? I think we end up in the American version of the troubles, with tit for tat attacks targeting politicians, celebrities, or perhaps ordinary civilians on both sides. 

Without knowing the motivations for the shooter it's unclear who should bear the blame for this attack. What is clear is that the rhetoric around Donald Trump is out of control. The Democrats talk about Trump in apocalyptic terms, saying that he is a threat to democracy and that if he gets in there will be no further elections, and other such nonsense. The truth of the matter is that Trump was a fairly moderate president with fairly moderate policies and would certainly be a lot less dangerous than a Harris administration, but even then there is nothing that would justify violence in the 2024 election. But if Trump gets killed, then pretty much everything is on the table. 

Finally, I honestly don't know how much more of this I can take. The country is a very dark place right now and it's hard to keep up with all the violence and threats. This has been, by far, the craziest presidential season I have ever seen. Between the 1st assassination attempt, the lawfare against Trump, Biden collapsing and then dropping out, the anointment of Kamala Harris and now the 2nd assassination, is it any wonder that I just want this all to be over with? 

Donald Trump says he will end taxes on overtime pay if elected president.

 

Donald J. Trump. 

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced today plans to end taxes on overtime pay if elected president. The Hill. Hourly employees would only have to pay taxes on 40 hours of work and anything after that would be payroll tax free. Congress would have to approve the measure but a bill was introduced in Congress earlier this year. Trump has also campaigned on ending taxes on tips, a proposal that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris stole, while he has also proposed ending taxes on social security payments as well. 

My Comment:

As an hourly worker this would be huge for me. In 2023 I had about 300 hours of overtime and if I could have gotten all that money tax free it would have been great. It would have also kept me in a lower tax bracket, though, to be fair, very little of my income was taxed at the next level. Getting more money on my paycheck each week (and yes, I usually have a few hours of OT on each biweekly paystub) would be amazing. 

This should be popular among both workers and businesses. Workers are obviously going to like getting paid a lot more for having to work more than 40 hours a week. But this is a big win for businesses as well. After all, I can't tell you how many times I have heard people saying it's not really worth it to work OT because the "government takes it all" anyways. That's not strictly accurate, but getting rid of the taxes would incentivize taking overtime shifts, which makes things easier for managers. 

Will the proposal pass? It's possible. I think Republicans can get on board with this proposal and the GOP should have enough votes in the house and senate to pass the bill. There might be a few hurdles with deficit hawks who will be upset about the loss of tax revenue but I also think that more than a few Democrats would be willing to vote for this as well. 

And I don't think the lost income will be that extreme, largely because these tax decreases will be coupled with tariffs on foreign goods. Those tariffs should be able to raise enough funds to more than cover this proposal and the no taxes on tips one. Though I don't know if it would counter the no taxes on social security (which is not a proposal I expect congress to pass). And since Trump's tariffs were deflationary in nature it might help with that issue as well. 

The other problem is that Kamala Harris is likely to steal this idea and pass it off as her own, like she did with no taxes on tips. I don't think Harris has any inclination to actually pass either tax break but she will probably desperately want to get rid of a winning issue for Trump. And since that seemed to have worked on the tip tax, which wasn't mentioned in the debate once as far as I remember, it could happen again. 

Regardless, I think this is another example of the new Republican party being more "progressive" and pro-worker than the Democrats. The Democrats make a lot of noise about being pro-worker but then they import competition from other countries and cause inflation. This would at least help me as a worker more than anything the Democrats have come up with this election cycle. I'm all in on Trump anyways, but if I wasn't I would probably vote for him now just out of naked self interest. 

Donald Trump leads nationally in new New York Times/Siena poll.

 

Donald Trump. Fox News.

A new poll shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris nationally in a New York Times/Siena college poll. Fox News. Trump beats the vice president by one point in the poll, in a 48 to 47% lead. The polling was similar to the last time this poll was taken in July, right after Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Trump had seen a dip in support after Kamala Harris entered the race but that did not show up in this poll. Harris did manage to claw back some support from traditional pro-Democrat demographics compared to Joe Biden but is well behind what other Democrats have gotten in previous years. Harris should also be concerned about 60% of voters wanting change and only 25% of those voters saying Harris would accomplish that, compared to 53% for Trump. The only good news for Harris in the poll is that Democrats hold an enthusiasm lead over Republicans at 91% compared to 85%. 

The New York Times poll can be found here (paywalled).  

My Comment:

This is fairly devastating for Kamala Harris. For the record in 2020 this poll showed Joe Biden 8 points ahead and was off about four points in terms of national vote total. Biden barely won with those margins so to see this for Harris is very bad news for her indeed. 

The best case scenario for Harris is that the errors in the polling are corrected and this is basically accurate. But I don't see how she could possibly win if she is a point behind in the national vote. Republicans have an advantage in the Electoral College and a national lead means that Harris does not have a path unless something in the electorate has changed massively. 

But if the poll has the same error in 2024 as it had in 2020? Then Harris is done. Completely. It would mean that Trump is up by five points nationally, which means not only is a victory ensured it means that Trump could start seeing the kinds of scenarios we were envisioning before Joe Biden dropped out. Blue states like New Jersey, Minnesota and New Mexico could flip red too, along with more traditional swing states that have trended blue, like New Hampshire and Virginia. 

Of course this is just one poll, but it is in line with many others that show that the summer of vibes for Harris are at an end. Other polls show her still in the lead but doing much worse than she was after entering the race while the betting markets and Nate Silver's model are giving Trump an advantage. Silver's model has Trump at a 62% chance of winning. And keep in mind that the New York Times/Siena poll is one that is considered reliable. 

So why has this happened? I think some of it generally was the polling companies giving Harris a few points for free to try and build momentum for her and that had to end at this point at the race if they want to keep any credibility in the future. Under this model the Harris vibes were never real and I am guessing that is a major factor. 

But events have a lot to do with it as well. I think the RFK Jr. endorsement was huge as he was drawing more from Trump than Harris and he is bringing his substantial ground game on board as well. He also brought a lot of folks on board that were angry with Trump over the covid vaccines, but those people will be satisfied now as RFK Jr. looks to be involved in the campaign. Meanwhile the best endorsements the Harris camp can get are Dick and Liz Cheney, folks that were persona non grata among Republicans anyways and may even turn off a few Democrat voters who thought Dick Cheney was the devil during Bush's term. 

Some of it too is the fact that Harris actually had to be seen in public. She had her convention speech and a disastrous interview on CNN and those served to remind Americans that she isn't a good speaker and they never liked her all that much. 

Of course this is all leading to the debate this week. That debate could prove critical given that Trump is a decent debater and Harris is not. Harris had to drop out of the 2020 race due to her poor debate performance and the fact Tulsi Gabbard had her number. Gabbard is now assisting Trump which should give him an even larger advantage than he already has. Keep in mind Trump was able to destroy the political careers of Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden during his debates with them and all of them were more competent at it then Harris is. 

On the other hand Harris is the benefactor of low expectations, I don't think anyone outside of the most rabid Democratic partisans believe that Harris has a chance of victory against Trump. If she manages to hold her own it could be a victory for her. But is it already too late? 

Vladimir Putin "endorses" Kamala Harris, but does he actually want her to win?

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Fox News/Reuters.

Vladimir Putin appeared to endorse Kamala Harris at an economic event. Fox News. Putin said that it was up to the American people to decide but said that Joe Biden supported Harris so Russia would as well. Putin also joked about her laughter saying that it means everything is fine with her. Biden had previously endorsed Joe Biden saying that he was more predictable than Donald Trump. It's unclear how genuine Putin's statements were though he did note that Trump had sanctioned Russia more than any other American president. However, the intel community says that Russia is trying to get Trump elected. And unlike Harris, both Trump and his VP candidate JD Vance have been skeptical of funding the war in Ukraine. 

She laughs so expressively and infectiously. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a surprising endorsement for who he wants to win the 2024 US election. #USpresident #vladimirputin #russianpresid pic.twitter.com/2lsorHmkED

— Hawk Insight (@hawk_insight) September 6, 2024

My Comment:

It seems pretty clear that President Putin is making fun of our politics here in the United States. Given that he's heard Kamala Harris laugh and is a sane rational person, there is no way that he would actually complement her for that. And given his bemused expression and cadence in the video above it's clear he was having fun with the American media which either took his statement literally, on the right, or condemned it totally, on the left.  

It's unclear what Putin is really thinking though. There's an argument to be made for both candidates in terms of what benefits Russia the most. The pro-Kamala side is pretty obvious. She's incompetent and will double down on the failed policies of the Biden administration. Those policies have helped the Russian economy, greatly damaged the rest of Europe and is gradually pushing more support for Putin from the third world. Indeed, Russia and China are in a de facto alliance now because of Biden and it's clear that Harris will just be more of the same. 

The pro-Trump side is sort of obvious as well. Trump and Vance want an end to the war in Ukraine and will make it a priority to end the war. Trump also has a decent relationship with Russia and would at least be willing to meet with Putin to try and sort the relationship out. 

But I do see a major problem for Putin if Trump does get elected. That desire to end the war means that there will be a big diplomatic push to end the war. And given that Trump is a skilled negotiator that means that Putin may have to give up some of his war aims in Ukraine. With Harris there won't actually be a diplomatic push and instead they would continue the status quo which means that there is a good chance Ukraine collapses and Putin wins everything. 

Regardless though I think what Putin really wants is chaos in the United States. His statements here, along with the nonsense that happened this week with Tenent media. After all, Putin had his goons make a few Facebook posts back in 2016 and it hampered all of Trump's 1st term and still causes division today. By fanning the flames here again, he's trying to make it so that both sides believe that the other candidate is inauthentic. 

Of course none of this would work if it wasn't for the fact that the Democrats allow it to. The fact is that most countries try to interfere with our elections. Iran is doing the same thing and we know that China and Israel do so regularly as well. But somehow Russia captured the imagination of the Democrats and they made a few Facebook posts in 2016 the biggest story in the world... 

Russia is advancing to Pokrovsk and could take the city soon, which would threaten to collapse the front.

 

An Ukrainian artillery unit firing on Russians near Pokrovsk last month. UnHeard/Getty.

Russia is advancing rapidly to the critical city of Pokrovsk and if they take the city it could cause a collapse of Ukrainian troops in the Donbas region. UnHeard. The war in Ukraine was long stuck in an attritional warfare stage but has evolved now to rapid advances for the Russians. They are now advancing close to the city of Pokrovsk, which is a major transportation hub in the region. Taking the city would prevent their efforts to supply and reinforce their troops in Donbass. The rapid advances underscore the failure of the Kursk offensive, which took limited territory in Russia but exhausted Ukraine's reserves. If Pokrovsk falls there would be no major obstacles for Russia until they hit the Dnieper River, especially if the Ukrainian military collapses.  

My Comment:

It's clear that the war in Ukraine has entered a new phase. For a long time the war was one of attrition with only minor gains on either side. It was grinding warfare with heavy casualties on both sides but only rare gains of territory. 

That has obviously changed now. Russia has taken quite a bit of territory in the last few months and is advancing rapidly on multiple fronts. And Ukraine launched a major attack of their own in the Kursk region. After a long stalemate the front lines are moving again. 

I do think that the Kursk offensive essentially lost the war for Ukraine. They were losing regardless, but the fact that they launched a rather pointless offensive into Russia itself will advance the failure. That offensive sent their best troops to a strategically unimportant area of Russia and those units are getting mauled. They would have much better served as a reserve force that could have been rushed to the area around Pokrovsk. This could have delayed Russia's offensive, perhaps to the point where winter would set in and slow both sides due to "mud season". 

But now? Ukraine is pretty much screwed. Russia has penetrated Ukraine's main defensive lines and there isn't much standing in the way of the Russians and Pokrovsk. I don't think they are going to be able to stop it and once it happens Ukraine is going to be cut off. Taking the city would cut off a major salient to the southeast of the city and would threaten to do the same thing to the north if Russia manages to advance in Chasiv Yar. Both salient could turn into major cauldrons if the the front lines don't collapse immediately. 

If they do collapse? Then Russia could advance all the way to the Dnieper River and many Ukrainian units could be cut off completely. It wouldn't be the end of the war, not by a long shot, but it would be a massive blow to the Ukrainians. And it might cause Ukraine to pull troops from other fronts and allow the Russians to advance there as well. 

With that being said Ukraine is said to be building up forces near the Zaporizhzhia front. It's possible that they are going to launch another attack there, which would be insanity. But I have said for awhile now that they are obsessed with causing a nuclear incident and capturing the nuclear power plant there could cause that. Regardless, those forces would be better served in the Donbas region. 

What can Ukraine do to stop this? Not much. They didn't have much in reserve before the Kursk offensive. They could pull troops from the border with Belarus but the military build up there is going to make that a very risky proposition. I still don't think the Belarusians will join the war, but they could and that greatly limits Ukraine's options. I really don't think that Ukraine can fix the situation in Donbass and the best move would probably be to withdraw now while they still can...