Venezuela's opposition says they can prove that they defeated Nicolas Maduro in contested election.

 

Protesters against Maduro. AP. 

Venezuela's opposition says that they can prove that their candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, defeated incumbent socials President Nicolas Maduro in a heated and contested election. AP. Gonzalez says he has 70% of ballot tally sheets and they show that he got double Maduro's votes. Maduro claims that he won, 54% to 44%. Though there have been widespread protests against Maduro's victory claims, there has been little violence. Maduro's party controls the electoral system that declared him a winner. Many other governments have openly question election. Maduro's socialists have been in power since 2007 and has maintained that control despite sanctions and the unpopularity and incompetence of their rule.

My Comment:

It's tempting to compare this situation to what we see here in America, but I don't think it has too much value in pointing it out. After all, I want people to vote in 2024 and they won't do that if they think the election will just be overturned. But I will say that the voices in the United States complaining about this result are beyond hypocritical given all the questions we had about our elections in 2020 (and 2022 for that matter). 

With that being said, I do think that Gonzalez did beat Maduro here. Both exit polls and traditional polls showed Maduro far behind the opposition and I don't think the polls could be off by more than 20 points. Maduro does have some support but his regime is unpopular and I doubt they could get over the hump legitimately. 

Can the opposition prove it? If they do have the ballot tally sheets I think they can prove that at the very least that Maduro is lying about the margins. With only 70% of the tally sheets they might not be able to prove it entirely, but I think it would be crazy to think that 100% of the 30% remaining would be for Maduro and that's probably what it would take. 

Though it hardly seems to matter. It sure doesn't look like Maduro is going to step down regardless. The opposition could prove their case 100% and Maduro could still hold onto power if the people aren't willing to press it. 

What really matters for Maduro is if one of two things happen. The first thing could be widespread protests to the point where he gets removed. That could happen and happen quickly, if proof is given that he lost the election. What would have to happen is the opposition holding the course and not blinking because the second they did Maduro could crack down and win. 

The other possibility is that that the military could decide to intervene. I don't know how solid the control of the military Maduro has, but if they decide that they no longer back him he could be gone very quickly. Such a coup is unlikely but certainly possible. 

But my guess is at this point Maduro stays regardless. There is still a chance of him losing power, or even a civil war, but that would require more spine than I think the opposition has. I am guessing they will make a big stink but then do nothing... 

Still, it's absolutely absurd that Maduro is still in power. Ever since the socialists took over in 2007 Venezuela has been a basket case. Venezuela should be the richest country in South America since it has the biggest oil reserves in the world. But instead they have run their country into the ground by letting the socialists in power. And it sure seems like you can't vote them out when they get in. 

This is also bad news for the United States as any disorder from a contested election will probably result in more people fleeing the country and entering ours illegally. And once they are here there is no indication that anyone is willing to get rid of them. If Maduro had left many of those folks would self deport but that seems pretty unlikely now.