Ukraine is moving troops to the border with Belarus. Are they seriously considering expanding the war?

 

Ukrainian troops firing a mortar. Reuters. 

Ukraine is moving troops to the border with Belarus raising concerns of a wider war. Reuters. The troops are massing in the Zhytomyr region near the border with Belarus and Poland. Belarus and Russia are allies and Russia initially attacked Ukraine from the country during the early stage of the war. Belarus has responded by sending their own troops into the border area and included MLRS units as well. Last week, several security incidents happened in Belarus including the destruction of a quadcopter drone that crossed the border and explosives were discovered. Belarus also says a pro-Ukraine militia is active in the area as well. 

My Comment:

This is somewhat baffling by Ukraine. This area is extremely far from the active war zones and is in a part of the country that has largely been unaffected by the war. It's the extreme northwest of the country, near the tri-border area with Poland and Belarus that Ukraine is putting troops.

What is more, Russia does not really have troops in the area either. Russia does have troops in Belarus but it seems unlikely that they would attack in this area and the places that Russia is building troops up is nowhere near this area. 

It makes almost zero sense for Ukraine to attack Belarus. Though the country does not have a good military they do have one and opening a new front against them would make things worse for Ukraine. Belarus also has nuclear weapons now and they could use them if they came under attack. 

And it's not like Ukraine really has troops to spare. They had to through their last reserves to stem the bleeding in the Kharkov region, to the point they had to pull troops from other fronts. You would think that they would send these troops to the front or keep them as a reserve instead of sending them to part of the front that is completely inactive. 

So what is the point of this? One possibility is that they are trying to draw both Belarus and Poland into the war. If they attack Belarus it might draw Poland into the war since it's happening on their border too. Doing so could draw NATO into the war as well, which is about the only hope that Ukraine has of actually winning the war (though even then it's no sure thing). If that's their plan it's a bad one as I doubt Belarus would give Poland a casus belli just because Ukraine attacked them.

The other possibility is that they could be using the area to stage attacks by pro-Ukraine militias that aren't officially part of the government. The post said that there was one such unit, a pro-Ukraine group of Russian nationals (allegedly) deployed to the area. Such a group could attack across the border with plausible deniability for Ukraine.

The purpose would be to draw Russian troops to Belarus and far away from their front lines. Would that actually help Ukraine? Probably not. It's not worth it to give Belarus a casus belli to join the war, even if they have plausible deniability. 

It's also cross purpose to their more recent efforts to end the war. I think Zelensky sees the writing on the wall. Not only is Russia winning the war, it's also clear that his number one cheerleader, Joe Biden, is likely on the way out. Plus, Ukraine skeptic parties across Europe are winning so there is a real good chance that Ukraine gets cut off of funding from the United States and Europe as soon as next year. Zelensky also knows that Trump is likely to demand new elections in Ukraine, which would also be the end of the Zelensky regime and they want to end the war before that point. 

So I am guessing the third option is the most likely. This is nothing more than a feint to spook Russia and Belarus into moving troops around but with no actual attempt to attack Belarus. It also might be a good place far from the front lines where their troops can rest and rearm. My hope is that I am right and nothing much comes from this.