Democrat poll shows Biden falls behind in all swing states as well as some "safe" blue states after debate

 

Joe Biden. New York Post/Zuma.

Democrat poll shows Biden falling behind in all swing states as well as some "safe" blue states after his disastrous performance at the debate. New York Post. The new poll from Open Labs shows that if the election were held today Biden would lose not only the seven swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he would lose traditionally blue states as well. Biden would also lose New Hampshire, Virginia and New Mexico to Trump, all states he won in 2020. Shockingly, though Biden led in three blue states, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota, they were within reach for Donald Trump. Biden has vowed to stay in the race despite the polling and the poor debate performance. 

Leaked Dem polling shows that not only does Biden lose every swing state, he puts a bunch of blue states in play for Trump. https://t.co/DchmVJlyOX pic.twitter.com/Gm70Z1GPd3

— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) July 2, 2024

My Comment:

Absolutely devastating polling for Joe Biden. If this comes to pass Trump would win in a landslide, 335-203.  And there is no guarantee that things won't get worse for Biden. Like the poll said, some other blue states, like Minnesota, Colorado and Maine are in play now too. And they didn't even ask about New York or New Jersey. 

Some of these states are more surprising than others. Nevada has been trending red for awhile now, same with Virginia. But to see New Mexico is shocking and having Colorado and Maine in reach is beyond crazy. Even Minnesota, which basically always goes for Democrats, is in play. That's just absurd.

Indeed, the margins we are seeing should protect against the threat of voter fraud. You can make up for a close election with voter fraud but you can't make up a 10% margin in Georgia and Arizona. And even if they did, the fact that blue states are going red makes voter fraud untenable. You can easily steal an election if you only need to pump out a few ballots in a few select counties. But if it's most of the country? You can't do it. 

To be fair there is a lot of time left. Perhaps Biden could do something to turn it around? But I struggle to think what that is. The image of a slack jawed Biden unable to even debate isn't going to go away anytime soon. People aren't going to be willing to vote for a man that certainly appears to not be capable of running the country. 

And it does seem like if any black swan event happens it will happen on Biden's side, not Trump's. I have said for awhile now that Biden faces three major threats, Ukraine, Israel and the economy. Any one of those things could blow up in his face and that could push his poll numbers down even further. Given there are rumors that Israel is now going to go to war with Hezbollah soon, I think this is a very strong possiblity.  

However, it's not like replacing Biden is going to help much. The other candidates being floated are not polling all that much better than Biden is. And replacing him does not seem at all viable at this point. For one thing Biden is so far refusing to step down and as long as that case any discussion about replacement is a moot point. But even if he were to step down replacing him would be so chaotic that it might hurt the Democrats more than letting Biden still run. 

Unless something changes it looks like Donald Trump is going to win in a landslide, just by default. He's likely to drag the Republicans to victory in the House and Senate as well, meaning that the Republicans/conservatives will control both all three branches in government. Democrats risk being wiped out entirely.