Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Fox News/Iranian Government photo.
Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a strike on Israel after they assassinated a Hamas leader in Tehran. Fox News. Ismail Haniyeh was killed in a strike in Iran and was a major leader of Hamas. Israel has not confirmed that they have killed Haniyeh but have taken credit for killing a Hezbollah leader in Lebanon. Khamenei condemned the assassination and said that there would be retaliation for killing their "guest" who was visiting from Qatar for the inauguration of Iran's new President, Masoud Pezeshkian. Israel has said that there was nowhere they couldn't strike.
My Comment:
Just when it was looking like we might avoid a major war between Hezbollah and Israel, this happens and now things look like they were worse than earlier this week. The assassination of Haniyeh is going to require a response of some kind if Iran wants to save any face at all. The only real question is how bad it will be and what form it will take.
I think the best we can hope for here is a repeat of April's tit for tat strikes between Iran and Israel. Those strikes were mostly limited and did not really involve a larger regional conflict. Iran and Israel both did enough to each other to save a little face but also didn't do so much that a war had to break out.
It's possible this could happen again. A major conflict between Israel and Iran is not in either sides best interests. Israel is still bogged down in Gaza and Iran has stability problems due to the death of their former President. The off ramp is a quick military exchange where not much happens and both sides can claim a victory. They did it before so why not again, so the argument goes.
But I don't know if we will be that lucky. I think that Israel did give Iran a valid casus belli in attacking Iranian soil directly, even if they had a valid target in the Hamas leader. As bad as the embassy attack was in April, it was at least not within the borders of Iran. This strike is different and probably requires a more powerful response from Iran.
What that could look like is up in the air at the moment. The last attack failed because it was unable to get through Israel's Iron Dome defenses. This time the strike might be even larger, which is really saying something as the last one was the largest drone attack in history. I am guessing that if they go with that option Iran will call on their proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and their various Iranian backed militias in Iraq and Syria and have them launch along with Iran. And it that is the case than Iron Dome could very well be overwhelmed.
The other option is the more scary one. Iran and Hezbollah both have agents around the world that could carry out terror attacks on Israeli targets. They could hit Israeli embassies, consulates and business interests across the world. They could also target Jewish civilians as well. Indeed, I would not go anywhere near an Israeli building in the next few days until this situation is resolved in one way or another.
It's also possible that both strategies could be used at the same time. If that's the case then things are going to go really bad in the Middle East and possibly the world. Israel has been able to hold off most attacks so far but I am sure there would be at least some casualties on their side if Iran goes all out them. And if there are widespread terror attacks a lot of innocent people that have nothing to do with the conflict whatsoever could be killed or hurt.
Israel would of course respond and they can do a lot of damage as well. Though they are a lot more likely to use conventional strikes against Iran than the reverse I do think they have a capability to launch terror attacks against Iranian targets abroad as well. They have done so in the past. But they can also launch major airstrike and missile attacks against Iran and their proxies.
The problem is that neither side is powerful enough to actually destroy the other sides ability to make war. They are strong enough to do a major amount of damage but not so strong that either side will get destroyed. Unless, of course, the war goes nuclear. Israel absolutely has nuclear weapons and it's likely that Iran does now as well, though I am unsure if they have a secure delivery system. Plus Iran probably has chemical weapons as well. Things could go very badly very quickly if a major war happens.
The war would also have a large chance of drawing in the United States into another horrible war in the Middle East. It would probably not go as well as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan either. Iran is a lot more credible in terms of power and we haven't been able to do much against the Houthis in Yemen either. Though we would probably win in the end, for a given meaning of wining, it would be one that could result in heavy casualties and perhaps the destruction of some air and naval assets. And that's assuming that this really isn't the start of World War III...
I do hope that cooler heads prevail. The World War III outcome is possible but it is also fairly unlikely. The tit for tat strikes and responses is probably the most likely outcome regardless, but it really depends on how Iran's strikes go. If they actually succeed and manage to kill a large number of Israelis and do a major amount of damage than I think it's game on for a major war. Same if there is a wave of terror attacks. Let us all hope the attack fails like the last one so Israel will not have to launch a major strike of their own in response.
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