Russia will create a "buffer zone" in Ukraine as a war goal.

 

Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Fox News/AP.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin says that they will create a buffer zone in Ukraine to prevent attacks on the Russian homeland. Fox News. Putin said the buffer zone is needed to prevent Ukrainian strikes and cross border raids. Such strikes have increased in pace as Ukraine has suffered defeats on the battlefield. They have launched drone strikes on targets inside of Russia and have attempted to raid across the border. Putin has been vague on his goals on Ukraine but has said that establishing a buffer zone is a war goal now. 

My Comment:

I don't know if this is new information or information that the media is just reporting now. I had known for awhile that Putin wanted a buffer zone in Ukraine but I have no idea where I had heard it. Probably on social media? But it's not surprising. 

Russia's war goals are pretty obvious, as they think that Ukraine represents a major threat to them and could be used to launch attacks against Russia itself. Given the events of the last few weeks, I think it's pretty obvious that they are correct. Given that the Ukrainians keep getting long range weapons, I think the Russians would have to push Ukraine back away from the borders of Russia. 

They would have a long way to go. In order to prevent the kinds of border strikes and cross border raids that the Ukrainians are doing the Russians would have to take the entire border region with Ukraine, up to the Dnieper river. And now they probably have to go past it, as both Kiev and Odessa would be able to threaten the border, with Odessa being a threat to Crimea. 

Can they do it? Yes, but it will probably take some time, unless Ukraine collapses quickly. Though Russia is on the offensive, they are hampered by mud season, which makes large scale offensives difficult at best, impossible at worst. That means that Russia will probably be limited to the smaller scale probing attacks that are showing quite a bit of success, but not the major breakthrough that would threaten these larger cities and take back some of the territory they lost in 2022. 

I do think it's bizarre that the western media acts like Putin's motives are hard to read. It's obvious he views Ukraine as a military threat and is especially sensitive to the threat posed by right wing groups in the country. Given Russia's history with the Nazis, that is not surprising at all. Putin also doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO and does not want it to be able to threaten to restart the war as well. Taking the buffer zone area would help in those goals as well, given the economic importance of the region. 

Finally, I probably should mention that Putin easily won Russia's elections. That is not surprising, though not for the reason that the media claims. They claim that Russia's elections are fixed, but I don't find them any worse than America's. Plus, given Putin's popularity and polling saying most Russians are in favor of the war against Ukraine, it would have been shocking if he didn't get the win at the ratio he did...