Houthis make a deal with Russia and China for transit in the Red Sea.

 

Houthis in Yemen. Politico/AFP. 

The Houthis of Yemen have made a deal with Russia and China for safe transit in the Red Sea. Politico. In return, China and Russia will provide diplomatic support for the de facto leaders of Yemen. This presumably includes providing veto cover against UN resolutions against the Houthis. Negotiations between the Houthis and China and Russia have been ongoing since last year. The Houthis have largely closed the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to shipping and US efforts to stop missile and drone attacks on shipping has not succeeded. Airstrikes against the Houthis have been attempted but have so far failed to stop the attacks on shipping. 

My Comment:

This is a diplomatic coup for Russia and China. Not only are they going to be able to get an economic advantage over everyone else in the region, they are also strengthening ties to the de facto government of Yemen, the Houthis, who could prove useful allies to them in the future. 

Who would have thought diplomacy could be useful? The US certainly doesn't think so. Instead we have tried to bomb the Houthis into submission, and it hasn't seemed to have accomplished anything. The Houthis are still launching drones and missiles and they have hit even more ships. It's only a matter of time before another one sinks or someone else gets killed. 

And it doesn't seem like China or Russia had to pay much for this deal. Indeed, they were probably inclined to block any UN resolution against the Houthis anyways, mostly just to spite the Biden administration. As it stands now they won quite a bit with this deal. 

Does that mean that Russian and Chinese flagged ships are totally safe in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden? Probably not. From what I understand the Houthis attack based on publicly available information and signals intelligence. I am sure that Russia and China will have transponders on their ship to inform the Houthis that their ships are there, but there is always a chance that the Houthis will make a mistake and hit the wrong ship. It has happened before. 

Regardless, Russia and China will have a major advantage over Europe and the United States. They will be able to ship their goods through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden saving weeks of travel and millions in costs. Their insurance rates will likely go down as well. 

As for the United States, I still think that our options are essentially nil. In order to prevent these attacks we would either have to invade Yemen or actually attempt diplomacy. The 1st isn't viable, there is no desire in the United States for a major war with Yemen and the 2nd option isn't on the table either, since Biden doesn't appear to believe in it at all. So as long as both of those things are true I think this war will continue.