Ukraine says that they destroyed a Russian patrol ship in the Black Sea, showing how much naval warfare has changed.

 

Screencap showing the attack on the Sergei Kotov. BBC. 

Ukraine says that they have destroyed a Russian patrol ship, the Sergei Kotov, in the Black Sea. BBC. The ship took multiple hits from drones. The Kremlin has not confirmed the loss of the ship, but many pro-Russia bloggers have confirmed the loss of the ship. Though Ukraine has been on the backfoot in the ground war, Ukraine has had several successes with the naval war in the Black Sea with several ships, including the flagship Moskva. Video was released by Ukraine showing the attack against the patrol ship. 

Ukrainian sea drones hit and sank a Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship off occupied Crimea in an overnight attack, according to the Ukrainian military https://t.co/rfFrGQlndH pic.twitter.com/F8AuJao8gt

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 5, 2024

My Comment:

In the big picture this incident is a fairly minor one. The Sergei Kotov was a small patrol ship, not a major vessel and its destruction will not change the fact that Ukraine is losing the war. But since the incident touches on a subject I want to talk about anyways, it's worth covering. 

Naval warfare has changed. The Black Sea has proven that. The Red Sea has proven that. And we will have to adjust what we are doing with our navies to prepare for the next war. It's clear that American Naval dominance is over and we should expect extreme naval losses in littoral combat in our next war. 

It's pretty clear that though Ukraine is unable to win on the ground, they are doing a much better job in the Black Sea theater despite an almost total lack of naval forces. Indeed, Russia's Black Sea fleet has taken heavy casualties, including their flagship and and a few other major naval vessels. And they have not been able to enforce a blockade on Ukraine, allowing Ukrainian grain to make it out of the country. 

This strike proves why. Though it is unclear if this attack was conducted with underwater, above water or aerial drones due to the lack of quality video, it does show how modern ships are vulnerable to modern weapon systems. Indeed, the Kotov is part of a ship class that is supposed to defend against these kinds of attacks.

In Yemen the Houthis have been able to largely shut down travel in the Red Sea. Though they have only sunk one ship, they have damaged many others and the threat of further attacks have mostly shut down shipping through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Indeed, it's the only victory the pro-Hamas side has made in the war between Hamas and Israel. 

It shows that the US Navy could be in trouble in a major war. Though our major ships should be safe as long as they are far out to sea, our destroyers and littoral warfare ships could fall prey to the same tactics that sank the Kotov in the Black Sea and the Rubymar in the Red Sea. Drones and missiles have absolutely changed the calculus when it comes to naval warfare. 

I am sure that countermeasures will eventually be made against these kinds of drone strikes but for now we are in a serious crisis when it comes to naval warfare. For now the Russians seem to have curtailed their Black Sea operations but that's not a long term solution for them. Either way, we need to learn from both conflicts to better protect our forces.