Crocus City Hall, the site of the Moscow terror attack. New York Post/Reuters.
Officials are warning that ISIS-K could infiltrate the open US border and conduct a Moscow-style terror attack. New York Post. An official said that ISIS is getting bolder and is looking for bigger targets to strike in the United States. 260,000 people were caught illegally crossing the border last year and that does not include ones that were not caught. Concerns are high that groups like ISIS could smuggle people in as the FBI has seen an increase in people on their watchlists entering the country illegally. 169 terror suspects were caught at the border last year. However, ISIS-K has mostly been active in Asia and would be more likely to strike Europe before the United States.
My Comment:
I think it's very possible that a Moscow style terror attack could happen here in the United States. The attack was not that complex or expensive. I am guessing the whole thing cost less than $100,000 and ISIS-K certainly has that kind of money to throw around, considering they control part of Afghanistan.
And they could absolutely get through the open borders either through Mexico or Canada. There is a very good chance that they wouldn't even get caught until they carry out their attack. With so many people crossing the border right now it would be trivial to blend in with the crowds, especially if you toss your ID's before you even get there.
But I don't really see ISIS-K being the one that does this. Why? Because they have a lot of targets a lot closer to home that are a lot easier to hit. Indeed, their attack in Moscow is probably the furthest away from Afghanistan they have gotten. Most of their other attacks have been in Afghanistan proper or in neighboring countries like the attack on Iran in January.
And if our borders are open, certainly things are even worse in Europe right now. I don't think anyone from ISIS-K would have a problem crossing over their borders. Europe is wide open to a major terror attack and I would not be surprised if the next major attack happens somewhere in Europe proper. And it would be extremely easy for terrorists to get armed up given the huge number of weapons flowing into Europe from Ukraine.
ISIS-K would have bigger problems here in the United States. Getting guns and explosives is a lot more difficult if you are in the country illegally, or just in general. The full-auto rifles terrorists prefer are simply not available here unless you are incredibly wealthy and sometimes not even then. And both our police and civilians are well armed, it would be a lot more difficult for a small team of terrorists to kill triple digit people without getting armed resistance.
The Post piece mentioned though that bombing and shooting aren't the only way ISIS-K could strike though. They mentioned car-ramming attacks, which have been used by terrorists in the past. Those are very easy to pull off as all you need is a heavier vehicle and a place where there is a crowd. I think that is more likely to happen than the other options.
I also think that ISIS-K isn't the terror group we should be worried about. All kinds of bad actors are crossing the border right now, including state backed groups. I am sure we have people from Hamas and Hezbollah, along with state actors from China and Iran. I'm even worried about the Banderites in Ukraine which might want to take revenge after Ukraine loses the war against Russia. As long as the border is completely open, these folks will continue to arrive here and it's likely that they will carry out attacks at some point if the politics allow it.
Regardless, though I think the threat of terrorism inspired by ISIS is high, I am not really expecting a major terror attack by them in the United States funded and carried out by the group directly. What I am expecting is a wave of "lone wolf" terrorists carrying out their attacks in the name of ISIS. We had seen that before in the wake of major terror attacks and I think that is the most likely fallout of the Moscow attack.
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