French President Emmanuel Macron. Politico/Getty.
French President Emmanuel Macron has doubled down on the idea of sending troops to Ukraine. Politico. The statement occurred during a TV interview where he was asked to explain comments he had made saying he would rule out sending combat troops to the war zone. Macron argued that Ukraine must win the war and it was an existential threat for Europe. Macron argued that everything was on the table with the only exception being France being in the lead of any offensive against Russia. Macron's comments are controversial to say the least, with many of his NATO partners disagreeing with the idea of sending troops to Ukraine. Most of France is against him as well, with 68% of French people surveyed said Macron's words about sending troops a wrong.
My Comment:
Macron's statement was worse than Politico is reporting as he also said there is no point in negotiating with Russia, despite the fact that a negotiation is the only way this war ends without Ukraine losing. Indeed, the entire speech seems utterly unhinged.
From what I understand is that the basic plan is that NATO troops would be deployed to the border with Belarus in the and Odessa on the southern coast. Doing so would free up border Ukraine units and would perhaps reconstruct their reserves. It would also supposedly deter the Russians from again opening up a 2nd front on the Belarus border and would keep Belarus from joining the war in the late stages of the war. And they want to keep Odessa because it's the only port that Ukraine has.
France would likely not be able to accomplish these goals by themselves. They have a small army compared even to Ukraine and though their units are good, they are not large enough to secure the entire border with Belarus. They would need support from other NATO countries and there is zero evidence that most of the alliance would go along with it.
I also think that it would be insanely optimistic that Russia wouldn't target NATO troops in Ukraine. I think they would and it's pretty obvious that they would. Though Macron says this war is existential, he doesn't actually mean it. Putin and Russia as a whole absolutely know it is for their part and if that means blowing up French troops then that is what will happen.
France also doesn't have the logistics to actually accomplish this mission in Ukraine. The supply lines aren't really secure due to Polish farmers blockading the roads into Ukraine, meaning they would either have to resolve that situation somehow, which has already completely vexed NATO, or they would have to ship everything through Odessa and that would invite a naval clash with the Russian Black Sea Fleet, a clash they probably wouldn't win, despite Russia's depleted fleet.
There is also the question of what the French would be fighting with. All of NATO has depleted their weapons stocks and it's not like France is going to go into a full war mobilization. Even if they do it would take a very long time to get French military production up to full speed and they still wouldn't even be able to match, let alone beat Russia's massive weapons production.
I generally think that this is just a bunch of nonsense from Macron. He's trying to distract against domestic issues and is desperately trying to save face in a very misguided adventure in Ukraine. He's far behind in the polls right now and will likely lose the next election. He wants to drum up support for his unpopular Ukraine policy and by doubling down he is hoping to get some more of the 68% of the French against his comments.
What is bizarre about these statements is that he is making them now. Everyone knows that even with western support Ukraine will lose the war. The real question is how long it will take. I think even if NATO sent troops it wouldn't matter. Russia has the advantage in troops, ammo and technology and is in a war footing. NATO has no advantages and the Ukrainian Army is on the verge of breaking...
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