Does Donald Trump have a chance in 2024?

 

Donald Trump. 

As you are probably aware, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have won their respective primary campaign races and we are looking at a rematch of the 2020 race. This was not at all surprising as the race essentially had two incumbents. Biden may be the one in the White House but there was no question that Trump still controls the Republican Party. 

With the rematch confirmed, the obvious question is if Trump can win the White House in 2024. Trump essentially won in 2020 but was denied the White House due to voter fraud. He absolutely should have been President but will 2020 happen again?

I think there is a strong argument that this election will be different. The threat of voter fraud is still obviously still around, but I don't believe that it will be the deciding factor like it was in 2020. Indeed, I believe there was massive fraud in 2016 but since that race was a lot less close in the swing states, it was impossible to find the votes Hillary Clinton needed to win. 

Plus, the Republican Party seems to be taking things a lot more seriously this time around. They are using some of the same tactics, like ballot harvesting, to make this more equitable. And some of the worst abuses have been corrected or countered. There is also the fact that the Democrats don't have the excuse of the Coronavirus pandemic to change laws at the last minute where there was almost zero time to counter or adjust to the new situation. The GOP had four years and I think they have done something. 

Another factor is that Joe Biden was more of an unknown factor back in 2020. Biden was a non-entity as a VP and a Senator and people mostly voted for him because they didn't think he was Trump. But now we know how absolutely abysmal Biden has been, it's enough to make Trump look really good in comparison. 

This is reflected in the polls that mostly show Trump ahead of Biden, especially in the crucial swing states that handed Biden the election in 2020. Trump is ahead in all of the major swing states in most polls I have seen and there is even a chance that non-traditional swing states could be in play as well. Biden just isn't anywhere near as popular as he once was. 

Biden has also angered many of his own party with his failures. The Gaza issue alone has thousands of his voters turned off. Many of those folks won't forgive him and I think the Democrats have lost many Muslim Americans forever. And more than a few people are angry and various other failures Biden has had. 

I also have seen polling that traditional groups that usually go for Democrats, like young people, minorities and even college educated men are running away from the Party. The Democrats are not in a position to lose any part of their coalition but many minorities are sick of their actions. It was a historical accident due to the civil rights movement that conservative blacks, Hispanics and Asians were on the same side as the Democrats and that appears to be going away. 

There is also the elephant in the room that is the fact that there is an actual third party candidate running, along with a few minor candidates. RFK Jr. is a legit candidate that is taking about 10% to 15% of the vote, and Cornel West and Jill Stein are in the mix as well. And there are rumbles that the No Labels group will be running a candidate as well. Of these only RFK Jr. takes votes from Trump, the rest take from Biden and even RFK Jr's support mostly come from former Democrats. 

 

Another factor is that the legal crusade against Trump has absolutely turned people off from Biden and gained support for Trump. None of the legal cases against him are on solid ground and the lawsuits against him happened in obvious kangaroo courts. Everyone knows what is happening to him could happen to any of us and the only real way to protest against it is to vote. 

A lot could change between now and November. Indeed, it's a real question if the election itself, let alone the Trump vs Biden matchup, will even happen given how much could happen. Biden could mishandle the Ukraine conflict so badly that we all end up getting nuked.

But without something crazy like that happening, I do think that Trump has a good chance of winning. Could Biden turn it around? Possibly, but I honestly don't know how. It would really have to be something amazing at this point or vote fraud at the level where it becomes extremely obvious for Biden to win as thing stand right now.