Vladimir Putin says that Russia will not go to war with NATO but would shoot down donated F-16 fighter jets.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reuters.

Vladimir Putin says that Russia will not go to war with NATO but would shoot down donated F-16 fighter jets. Reuters. Putin said that he had no designs on Poland, the Baltic States or Czechia, calling the idea "nonsense" and "drivel". However, he did not that his forces would destroy F-16 fighter jets, noting the jets would not change anything on the ground. But the fighters are capable of using nuclear weapons and would mean that Russia could target any bases launching them from outside of Ukraine. Ukraine claims it will receive the fighter jets in the next few months but it is unclear how F-16's, which require heavy maintenance, long airstrips and armored hangers, will operate from Ukraine. 

My Comment:

 Putin appears to be talking out of both sides of his mouth here. First he is saying that he won't attack NATO countries but at the same time he says that he would destroy airbases if they are being used to host F-16's, since they can use nuclear weapons. So he's promising not to strike at the same time threatening to strike? 

So what does this mean? I think this whole thing is a fairly obvious message to the west. Keep the F-16's in Ukraine and don't use NATO bases to launch attacks on Russian troops. If they do then the consequences are that those bases will be attacked and destroyed. It's a pretty clear message. But will NATO even listen?

I have expressed skepticism that F-16 will ever actually receive F-16's and this is a major reason why. It would be difficult to operate these jets out of Ukrainian airbases and there is an open question if any of Ukraine's air bases are even operational at this point. They have been launching Storm Shadow missiles at Russian targets, so they have some air forces left, so they must have some bases still operational.

But can they handle F-16's? From what I understand F-16's are rather picky about what kind of air bases they can be operated. They have low tolerance for debris and need a lot of maintenance. And they would need armored hangers to protect them from Russian air and missile strikes. These air bases would be priority targets for Russia so would they even last after the fighters have been delivered? 

Of course, like the other wunderwaffen deployed in this war, I doubt the F-16's would do much, especially at the low numbers being offered. 1000 of them might make a difference but we are talking about a squadron or two, not enough to actually do much. And Russia now has the advantage in airpower, air defenses and military power in general. My guess is that if these fighters try to engage with Russian fighter jets, they would be destroyed easily. And if they target ground forces they would probably get shot down by Russia's air defenses. About the only use they could be for is being launchers for Storm Shadows and equivalent long range missiles, and that would have a negligible effect at best. 

Given the negligible effect F-16's and the fact that Putin gave a pretty direct warning, will NATO use bases in their territory to launch these fighters? I would certainly hope not, it would be an absolutely idiotic move in a war that is already lost. In a sane world they wouldn't even consider it. But this is not a sane world and NATO has done nothing but double down and throw good money after bad in this war. I think we might see Russian airstrikes on NATO airbases...