World leaders believe that Iran accidentally shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet.

Wreckage from the crashed airliner. BBC/AFP.

World leaders believe that Iran shot down an Ukrainian passenger jet, probably by mistake. BBC. The plan crashed near Terhan and all passenger and crew, 176 people, died in the crash. US intel sources say that satellite coverage detected two lights that were likely missile launches and a third that was likely an explosion. Other sources say that the jet was hit by a Russian made Tor anti-aircraft missile. The incident came as Iran was launching ballistic missiles at targets in Iraq and it is beleived that they mistook the airliner as a US warplane. The leaders of America, Canada, Ukraine and the United Kingdom all said that the incident was an accidental shootdown. Canada had 63 citizens on the flight. Iran blames the crash on a engine explosion.

My Comment:

World leaders already telling us what we already know. I don't think anyone really buys that this plane crashed due to mechanical failure. If it had happened any other day than the day Iran decided to launch missiles at Iraq I might be more sympathetic. But the coincidence there is too big to be believable. 

I think it's very unlikely that this incident was on purpose. There is no reason for Iran for shoot down a plane that had a bunch of their citizens on it. And I am guessing the foreign nationals on the plane were mostly Iranian as well. Plus it's not like Iran would gain any sympathy for this.

A mechanical failure is unlikely as well. Planes rarely have their engines explode for no reason and I think the plane was too far up for a birdstrike. The Ukrainians say this was one of their more well maintained planes and the model itself is pretty reliable. 

I think what most likely happened is that Iran's air defenses were on high alert. They were likely expecting a relation strike from the United States. Even though all commercial flights have transponders they probably mistook it for an American bomber. Instead of waiting for a positive identification or reports of an attack, they just launched a missile or two and shot down a civilian jet. 

This is pretty much exactly what happened with Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was shot down by Ukrainian rebels in 2014. That plane too was flying over an area that was expecting air attacks and was mistaken for an enemy plane and shot down. Of course America did the same thing to Iran during the Iran Iraq war so it's not like this is unprecedented or anything. 

So why don't the Iranians admit to it? Because it's very embarrassing and they would be liable for damages the families of the people that got killed. They don't want to admit that their military screwed up and quite frankly and admission of guilt would make them look incompetent. 

But think it would be better for the Iranians if they just admitted it. Fire the people responsible, open an investigation and then cut a check to the victims families. Doing so would be embarrassing but it might give Iran some credit internationally. That won't happen though. 

Finally, I do have to question why these flights weren't diverted or grounded. Given how high the tensions were and how likely something like this happening was on both sides, these flights should have been nowhere near Tehran. This accident was totally avoidable but both the air defense group and the air traffic controllers are responsible for it.