Qasem Soleimani.
The Iranian leader of Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani has been killed by an American airstrike. Fox News/AP. Soleimani was a very influential general and had lead the Quds force in Syria and Iraq, as well as attacks against US forces. Most recently Iranian backed militias killed a US contractor and attacked the US embassy. Along with Soleimani a leader of an Iranian backed militia, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed in the attack. President Trump had threatened Iran after the attack on the US embassy and the US military has taken credit for the attack.
My Comment:
Huge news from Iraq. It's hard to understate how important Qasem Soleimani was. He was Iran's most experienced commander and his Quds force was instrumental for Iranian efforts in Syria and Iraq. He helped fight ISIS but he also has launched many attacks on American forces. He has a lot of American blood on his hands, including the contractor death that started all this. Quds Force is Iran's elite guard and their most capable fighting force.
This was a tit for tat action that happened initially because Iranian backed militias killed a US contractor. The US launched an airstrike in return and Iran launched an attack on the US embassy in Iraq. This attack was in response to that but also to the fact that Soleimani has been a thorn in our sides for years now.
Losing Soleimani is a huge blow for Iran. He was a very experienced military commander and he won't be easily replaced. He was also something of a celebrity for them and was influential for their troops on the ground. This is a huge price to pay for Iranian ambitions. They will be weaker in both Iran and Iraq and won't be able to recover quickly.
I do wonder what Iraq will think of this. I doubt they were on board with us killing a major Iranian leader. They may try to file a protest about this and might even want us to leave the country. Time will tell what will happen as Iran was very influential in Iraq and they still can pressure the leadership there.
The biggest question is what Iran is going to do now. They not only lost one of their most important leaders they were humiliated on the world stage. Their attack on the US embassy was an unmitigated failure and now they are out their most important military leader.
They may feel like they have to respond even though doing so is not in their best interests to say the least. It's very possible that they will launch some kind of attack against US targets across the world. Iran certainly has a capable military and have the support of the Hezbollah terror group.
So what would an Iranian response look like? The most likely thing is more attacks on US targets in Iraq. The US Embassy is probably too hard of a target now but there are always other targets and they could always decide to hit one. Doing so would probably fail and could result in more retaliation, but if anything happens I think it will be this.
Of course a more substantial attack is possible as well. Iran famously attacked Saudi Arabia's oil fields with a massive drone and missile strike and there is no reason they couldn't do the same thing again. They might not hit Saudi Arabia again but could hit targets there or in Israel, Iraq or other regional powers allied with the United States.
The worst case scenario is an act of all out war. Iran has Hezbollah and they have cells in the United States and Europe. They could use these proxies to launch terror attacks against civilian and military targets across the world. They could even use their limited nuclear capabilities to launch a dirty bomb attacks. This would be the worst case scenario but also the least likely to happen.
The response to this incident will be interesting. My gut would say that Trump opponents would support this attacks and Trump supporters would dislike it. However, that doesn't seem to be playing out that way. The anti-war right that supports Trump seems to be in favor of this attack, perhaps because it was a proportionate response instead of a full scale attack. And the pro-war Trump critics will hate this move for the same reason and because they hate anything President Trump does regardless if it is the right move or not.
Was it the right move? I'm of two minds. On the one hand I do think that killing the leadership of terror groups, and the Quds Force was one, is the way to do things. Killing Soleimani did bring him to justice and will likely devastate Iran's plans for Syria and Iraq. But is it worth the backlash? That remains to be seen. Iran picked a fight with us but their response to this attack might change my mind on how good of a decision it was.
That being said, I'd keep an eye on things. If Iran decides to go all out and launch a major war than there could be domestic attacks within the United States. It might be a good idea to keep your situational awareness up and updating your plans for civil unrest and disorder.
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