Quick reaction to Iran's attack on US bases in Iraq.

Screenshot of one of the missiles hitting the al-Asad air base in Iraq. Reuters. 

As you are most certainly aware Iran launched a series of missile attacks on US targets in Iraq. Reuters has a round up of the event here, but the quick rundown is that they launched about 20 missiles. 15 hit the al-Asad air base and 1 hit another base in Erbil with the rest failing. No US casualties are reported but some Iraqi casualties may have happened. 

The attack seems to be over and Iranian officials are saying that nothing more will happen unless America responds with an attack. What we will do in response is unclear but it does seem clear that nothing will happen tonight. President Trump opted not to address the nation and has tweeted that he will make a statement tomorrow. 

All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2020

Social media and the other various websites are freaking out and even cable news is hysterical. But me? I think the whole situation is a joke. I knew that the Iranians were going to do something in response to the Soleimani killing and this seems like all they were able to do. It looks like a very minor face saving measure that might not have much of an effect on anything.

Indeed, the whole attack seemed pretty pathetic. Unlike the attack in Saudi Arabia where they were able to greatly damage Saudi Arabia's oil production, this attack seemed to accomplish nothing. No Americans were killed or even hurt as far as I am aware. Iran could have done much more but this attack basically did nothing. (and as a reminder, the Saudi Arabia attack was much more significant and damaging and war didn't happen there).

So what happens next? I am not sure. If a large number of American troops were killed or hurt I think we would see some major strikes like President Trump threatened. But given that nobody American was even hurt, I think there is a possibility that nothing much will happen. My guess is that President Trump will do what he did when Iran did when they shot down a US drone. Basically nothing.

Am I sure about that? No. It's possible that President Trump will want to save some face of his own and could launch some more attacks. But I doubt it. President Trump doesn't want a full scale war in Iran and I think he's made his point. I think there will be new sanctions but I also think there is a possibility that we might actually see a peace deal forming. The Iranians seem to be backing down so maybe there is an opening?

Either way, all the people screaming about World War III are being stupid. A small missile attack isn't going to lead to much of anything, much less a nuclear war with the entire world. I think the worst case scenario is an escalation of the tit for tat attacks we have had for awhile now. But it remains to be seen. I will continue to watch this story and if anything major breaks I might have another post up tomorrow.