Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Saudi air defenses thwart attack on Aramco launched by Iran backed Houthi rebels.

An Aramco oil facility. Wall Street Journal/AFP/Getty. 

Saudi Arabian air defenses have thwarted a missile attack targeting Aramco oil facilities. Wall Street Journal. The missile attack comes four months after a massive missile and drone attack greatly damaged two of Saudi Arabia's main oil facilities, cutting off 50% of Saudi's oil production. It also follows a major ballistic missile strike that killed over 100 Yemeni fighters. Houthi rebels took credit for the attack but Saudi Arabia and America blamed their backer, Iran. The attack may complicate secret peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis. 

My Comment:
Looks like the Saudi Air defense worked better this time around. They were embarrassed by the last major attack where Iranian drones and missile penetrated their defenses and greatly damaged the Saudi's oil processing facilities. This time they had a much better outcome. 

The article didn't say what kind of missiles were used but I am assuming that they were using the Burkan 2 missiles that they have used in previous attacks. Those are serious weapons and I am guessing that the Saudis had pretty serious defenses to defeat them. As the attack on the Yemeni soldiers proved, they can do a massive amount of damage. 

I don't think it really matters who gets blamed for the attack. Even if Iran denies the attack, they still support the Yemeni Houthi rebels so even if they didn't plan the attack themselves they bear responsibility for it. The Houthis are their proxy army in Yemen so anything they do is on Iran. 

Of course Iran would have loved it if the Saudis hadn't been able to defend these sites. Not only would they cripple their main enemy outside of the United States they would bolster their own oil industry, which has been hampered by international sanctions. Even if they didn't order the attack they certainly would have benefited from it. 

As for the peace talks I am not sure much will come from them. Iran doesn't want the war to end because it is tying down the Saudi military and costing them millions of dollars. The suffering of the Yemeni people does not matter to them at all. The Saudis and maybe even the Houthis themselves may want the war to end but I don't think it will be up to them. And I also don't think there is a military solution either. Neither of the major players, the Saudis and the Iranians, have deployed enough forces to actually win the war. 


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