Protests erupt in Iran after the country admits that they shot down a passenger plane.

Protesters in Iran. Reuters.

Protests have erupted in Iran after the country admitted that they shot down a passenger plane. Reuters. The plane crashed during an incident where Iran launched missiles at Iraqi military bases that held American troops. However, it took them three days to admit that the airline had been hit by a surface to air missile, destroying the plane and killing all 176 passengers. The mishandling of the situation caused anger to flare up against the regime and it's religious leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran has had frequent protests recently and most of them have been put down harshly. 

My Comment:

Iran made a mistake here. There was going to be anger over the plane being shot down no matter what. 176 people were killed and most of them were of Iranian descent. However, they made things worse when they tried to cover up the fact that they were the ones that shot the plane down. 

If they had just admitted it I think people might have been more understanding. After all, in a high tension situation like this incident, the fog of war is a real thing. The Iranian air defenses were expecting a American attack and they didn't take the time to verify their target. It's incompetence of course, but that would be less of a sin as the combination of incompetence and dishonestly. Much like the anger over the death of Jeffrey Epstein here in America, people tend to get angry when they are lied to so obviously. 

These protests are fairly widespread but they are nothing new for Iran. The country has faced quite a bit of civil disorder in the past decade or so and these protests against the regime are fairly common. So are the inevitable harsh measures to put down these protests. The reason why these people are in the streets have changed, but it remains a fact that many Iranians are not happy with their government. This time it was because they shot down one of their own planes, the last time it was due to higher fuel taxes. 

And like the older protests I expect this one to fade out as well. The Iranians haven't shown much interest in actually rebelling against the regime and I doubt they have the arms and supplies to do so. The military is loyal to the government and I don't expect the protesters to get actual outside help. The status quo of calm leading to disorder leading to a crackdown will likely continue for the predictable future. 

That being said, there might be some electoral consequences for this incident. Khamenei pissed away some of the national unity he got when General Soleimani died. Though there were many Iranians that were happy he was dead, many Iranians were infuriated that America killed him. This incident wipes away that unity as people are upset at the incompetence displayed here. Khamenei's favored candidates may face an uphill battle now. 

I do have to say that it was pretty interesting to see how the killing of General Soleimani played out. Once again, the pundits, neocons and fair weather Trump supporters were wrong. Not only did no war happen, Iran is now in a much weaker position than they were before. They lost their biggest general, their retribution attack did next to nothing and now their own people are angry because they were incompetent enough to shoot down one of their own planes while defending from airstrikes that weren't coming. Iran has lost a ton of respect here and may be forced in coming back to the negotiation table.