Justice Anthony Kennedy. SCOTUS photo.
Justice Anthony Kennedy has announced that he is retiring from the Supreme Court, leaving a vacancy for President Donald Trump to fill, in what is seen as a massive blow to Democrats. AP. Though considered a center-right justice Kennedy was seen as the "swing vote" who often was the deciding vote between a conservative and liberal outcome for critical court cases. With Kennedy retiring the court is currently made up of four reliable conservative and four reliable liberal justices. Whoever Trump picks to replace Kennedy will give the court a solid conservative majority for quite some time. Democrats will not be able to block the appointment of a justice due to the 51-49 majority the GOP has in the Senate.
My Comment:
Very good news for the GOP and very bad news for the Democrats. Though Kennedy was a center right justice he is also a swing vote and has been crucial in the courts limited liberal decisions, such as in gay marriage and abortion. It is extremely unlikely that whoever replaces him would be the same way with likely candidates probably resembling Neil Gorsuch.
Kennedy probably retired now because of the 2018 midterm elections. Though I think the chances of the Democrats taking the Senate are overblown I do understand why a center right justice like Kennedy would want to retire now as opposed to waiting. With as obstructionist as the Democrats have been if the Democrats were to win I could see them not accepting ANY nomination from President Trump and the seat remaining vacant until Trump is out of office if they capture the Senate. That's too big of a risk for someone like Kennedy.
As it stands right now there is likely no way that Democrats alone can stop whoever Trump nominates. With the filibuster gone, they won't be able to stop it even if every single Democrat agrees to not vote for the candidate, which is no sure thing. They can't stop this at all. There will be a lot of sound and fury but when it comes down to it, they have lost.
But will Republicans stop themselves? Of the 51 Republicans we already know we can't count on John McCain. He's dying and even if he wasn't, he would likely block any pick Trump made out of spite at this point. That leaves one vote up in the air and Mike Pence waiting in the wings for any tie. I don't know if there are any GOP senators so stupid to piss off pretty much every Republican in the country by blocking Trump's nominee but it is something I worry about.
What does this mean for policy? Well I think that the people worried about gay rights are probably worried about nothing. There isn't any effort to repeal gay marriage and even if there was, a legislative solution would be easily made. There might be some more edge cases like the cake backing issues, but those aren't really anywhere as critical as Democrats are trying to make out. Gay marriage isn't going anywhere.
I'm not so sure about Roe vs Wade though. It seems extremely unlikely that ruling will survive with the kind of nominees that Trump is likely to pick. I don't think abortion is going away anytime soon but I am guessing there will be more restrictions and the idea that abortion is a right isn't going to be supported anymore.
For me, I think the issue that is most served by a new justice is gun rights. As it stands right now the court has been extremely cowardly and won't rule on any of the draconian laws put into place in blue states. Now I am thinking that there is a good chance with a new justice we will get some good rulings. And there is no chance that a new court will try to remove the right to bear arms like they would have if we had a liberal justice.
I do have to say that though I am happy with this, there is reason for concern. The Democrats and leftists in this country were already unhinged and were either very close to calling for violence or, like Maxine Waters, were doing so already. This was a horrible week for Democrats and one that may drive some people over the edge. I worry that there will be blood soon...
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