Peace proposal in Yemen. If adopted it will mean cease fire, Saudis stopping bombing and rebels giving up ballistic missiles.

Houthi Rebels watch as a ballistic missile is launched. Reuters. 

A new UN peace proposal for Yemen would result in a cease fire, a cessation of bombing by the Saudis and the Houthi rebels giving up their ballistic missiles. Reuters. The plan has yet to be adopted and may be modified, but would also result in a transitional government. The conflict is a humanitarian disaster and is widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The UAE, a major partner in the Saudi led coalition, has said the support the peace effort. 

My Comment:

I don't have a whole lot of hope for this peace deal to work. Since this war is a proxy conflict between the Iranians and the Saudis, and neither side has any reason to stop the war, I don't see it stopping anytime soon. Peace deals tend to only happen when one side is very weak and right now that isn't the case. Especially with so many foreign powers sending in troops and weapons. 

The Saudis consider the Houthi rebels to be a existential threat. They cannot be allowed to threaten the Saudi homeland and even if they give up their heavy weapons they are a major threat. The Saudis want to make sure that the Houthis are not a threat and a peace deal doesn't ensure that. 

The Iranians don't want the war to end either. The Yemen conflict greatly weakens their Saudi enemy and they are using their conflict to test their various weapons systems. The ballistic missile being fired at Saudi Arabia are largely coming from Iran and some of them have never been tested in combat before. 

The deal on it's face seems fairly fair. Giving up their weapons in exchange for not being bombed anymore is probably about as good of a deal the Houthis are going to get. Plus a new government would be formed and a cease fire would be put into place. Doing so would do a lot to stop the crisis in Yemen. 

But I just don't see it happening. Neither side really seems to want to quit. I did find it interesting that the Saudi's main ally, the UAE, seems to want out. They have sent quite a few troops and weapons into the conflict and they probably want out. They are threatened by the Houthi rebels as well, but I think they are more worried about the ISIS and al-Qaeda fighters left in the country at this point. 

Speaking of al-Qaeda and ISIS, they would be the real losers in any peace deal. Right now they are using the chaos to gain a foothold. Though both groups have been pounded hard lately, they are still a threat. With the other factions not fighting each other anymore, they can all gang up on the terror groups. 

But like I said, I don't see this war ending that quickly. Nobody really wants peace and the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia will continue, with the people of Yemen caught in between.