US-North Korea summit is back on.

President Trump, Sec State Mike Pompeo, and North Korean General Kim Yong-chol. BBC.

The US-North Korea summit is back on and will happen on June 12th in Singapore. BBC. Trump announced the meeting after meeting with North Korea's General Kim Yon-chol, who is visiting America. Trump was delivered a hand written letter from Kim Jong Un. Trump said that officially ending the war in Korea, which ended in an armistice, is on the table, but noted that more summits or meetings may be necessary.

My Comment:

As expected, the summit is back on. I always expected this to be the case after President Trump surprise canceled it last month. I said back then that Trump was doing what he outlined in his book, Art of the Deal, where he would walk away if he wasn't getting a good deal. Well it looks like I was exactly right as now Trump is negotiating on a stronger position.   

However, President Trump seems to be tempering expectations a bit. He's making it pretty clear that the Singapore summit won't be the end all be all of this issue. I doubt he and Kim Jong Un will come out together with a grand de-nuclearization deal. But it will lay the ground work for such a deal and major concessions may be made on each side. 

The biggest deal that is likely to be made is the end of the Korean War. Since South Korea's president Moon Jae-in may be showing up as well, I think that is very likely if the meeting goes well. With Kim, Trump and Moon in the same place it would be the perfect opportunity to do so. And it is a necessary first step to making a real deal on de-nuclearization. 

So what will North Korea want in exchange for getting rid of their nukes? For one thing I think they will probably demand some kind of assurance that the United States won't invade. I think they can trust Donald Trump's word here but I worry that they are worried about whoever the next president is. A more aggressive, pro-intervention candidate, in the style of Hillary Clinton, could go back on Trump's word and pull a Libya on Kim Jong Un. How we counter that is unknown but I hope it is something we can deal with. 

I am guessing that North Korea will also want some economic help. Sanctions have crippled the country and they have had some serious natural disasters that have wrecked their economy. Lifting sanctions and perhaps even sending aid would go a long way to having the North Koreans come around. Doing so would basically be free for us and would mean the world for them. 

What could derail the summit? Human rights. North Korea has a horrible human rights record and if we start making demands on them about it, it could ruin everything. On the other hand we have to make some kind of token objection to it as it really is horrible in North Korea. That's about the only thing I could see running everything. 

I am extremely hopeful that this summit happens as it would finally solve one of the worst tinderboxes in the world. Doing so would probably be helpful for both our economy and the North Koreans and would greatly improve the life of North Korean civilians. It won't fix all of North Korea's problems, it will still be a police state with a cult of personality, but at least the people won't be starving. Let's all hope that it works out.