Moscow says it will strike French military trainers if they show up in Ukraine

 

Russian fighter jets. Politico/AFP/Getty.

Moscow says it will strike French military trainers if they show up in Ukraine. Politico. A spokesman was quoted by AFP, the French wire service, as saying that no trainer is immune from attacks in Ukraine, no matter if they are French or not. Last week Ukraine announced that French trainers would be deployed to the country, though both countries downplayed the claim afterwards. It is unclear if foreign trainers will be sent to Ukraine or not. Russia says they believe France will do so and claim that France and other NATO countries have deployed troops there as "mercenaries". 

My Comment:

France and other NATO countries sending trainers to Ukraine is a terrible idea. Not only would they be valid targets they would be actively participating in the conflict, which gives Russia a valid casus belli to declare war on the alliance. 

Until now we have at least had the fig leaf of plausible deniability when it comes to NATO troops participating in the war. It's an open secret that NATO troops are operating the weapon systems and some are even working as infantry. NATO calls these troops "volunteers" and Russia calls them "mercenaries" but they are really just active duty soldiers that have been temporarily released from duty. 

But deploying trainers openly? That's about as dumb as allowing Ukraine to strike targets in Russia using US weapons... It's a terrible idea and again gives Russia the right to not only strike these trainers but even declare open war on the countries that send them. 

That's pretty unlikely, Russia has shown extraordinary restraint and though they have threatened to  use nuclear weapons, I don't think they actually will. They are winning the war at this point and the only way they could really lose, outside of some kind of unprecedented collapse, is if a nuclear war breaks out. They wouldn't win that war, but neither side would. 

For these trainers though, I think they will be priority targets for Russian forces. And I don't think that France would be able to protect them. Russia has pretty impressive long range strike capabilities now and Ukraine no longer has very effective anti-aircraft units. I am guessing that these trainers would be destroyed pretty quickly after being sent to Ukraine. 

And it's not like these trainers would do much anyways. Most Ukranian troops aren't getting much training anyways, at least compared to historical standards. They are just being thrown into combat without much beyond basic training. I am guessing these trainers will be used to train specialists in the Ukrainian military, like demolitions experts and tank crews. 

Still, there is still some doubt if this deployment will happen. I think it has to at this point for France to save face, but the big question is if anyone else in NATO will go along with it. I can't imagine the US doing so and there are others in the alliance, like Turkey, that won't go along with it at all. It's possible that the Baltic states and Poland will do so but that's probably it...