After signing defense pact, Russia may send weapons to North Korea.

 

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un in North Korea. Reuters.

After signing a defense pact Russia may send weapons to North Korea. Reuters. Vladimir Putin mentioned that he might send weapons to North Korea in a tit-for-tat move to counter America giving weapons to Ukraine. North Korea is already providing artillery shells and small arms to Russia and it would make sense for North Korea to get weapons in return. North Korea wants advanced fighter jets, tanks, anti-aircraft systems and ballistic missiles for their nuclear program. The weapons would help North Korea catch up with South Korea, which currently had a military advantage in terms of technology. The defense pact signed between Russia and North Korea is not an official alliance but both sides have vowed to defend each other in the event of an attack.

My Comment:

Putin has been threatening a tit-for-tat move ever since Biden announced that Ukraine could launch attacks into Russia with US weapons, a threat they have now expanded to any region Russia is attacking from. I had speculated that Putin might give the Houthis, which are causing so much trouble for the US Navy in the Red sea, these weapons but it seems as though North Korea is going to get weapons instead or as well. 

North Korea has a manpower advantage over South Korea but in terms of technology the South has a massive advantage. Outside of a few 4th generation MIG-29's North Korea's air force is hopelessly outdated. They also have a major disadvantage in missiles and drones, which Russia can now fix. They do have a major advantage in artillery, which is why they can give so many shells to Russia, but that and manpower are their only advantage to the North. 

But it's not South Korea that the United States is concerned about. It's the fact that Russia could easily give North Korea missiles that could hit the United States with nuclear weapons. They can either give those weapons directly to North Korea or help their scientists to do it themselves. That would be a game changer and would make any war between the United States and North Korea a lot less one sided  affair, especially if Russia is serious about defending North Korea. 

This is, of course, a result of Joe Biden's foreign policy. Under Trump, relations between the United States and North Korea, and North Korea and South Korea, were a lot better. But now North Korea is in the sphere of influence of Russia and it will be difficult, if not impossible, to get them back out. Had Biden continued Trump's efforts to normalize relations with North Korea things might be different. And if he hadn't played his role in the Ukraine war things absolutely would be different. 

Is a war between North Korea and South Korea happening? Possibly. If either Ukraine or Taiwan escalate to World War III, I would not be surprised if North Korea joins to add another front for the United States to deal with. But I don't see them doing so any time soon. 

Another thing to consider is that it will take a long time to modernize North Korea's military even with Russia's help, which isn't even 100% guaranteed. There is still a chance that Russia only gives token support and not all the weapons North Korea wants and needs. But even if North Korea gets everything they want it will take a very long time for them to receive and train with those weapons.