US Navy is stuck in the Red Sea battling the Houthis. Is it sustainable?

 

The Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier group, along with an Italian ship. Business Insider/US Navy.

The US Navy is stuck in the Red Sea in a high intensity battle with the Houthis of Yemen. Business Insider. The Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier group has fired over 500 munitions and logged tens of thousands of hours for their airplanes. The munitions alone have cost $1 billion, but the actual costs are a lot higher. The rate of fire for munitions is sustainable but the wear and tear on ships and sailors may not be. The carrier group is in its second extension and has been active since the war with the Houthis began. The mission has been a mixed bag. No US Navy ships have been hit but several civilian ships have been hit with drones and missiles and a few have been sunk. There is also no end in sight for the operation as the Houthis have vowed to continue attacks until the war in Gaza ends. 

My Comment:

Currently the US Navy has a carrier, a cruiser and two destroyers deployed to the Red Sea and they have been deployed there since the mission began. The attacks have been constant since them and though they have had a little help from other coalition members, they have been in heavy combat since. 

The only good news is that these ships have not been hit despite having come under attack frequently. The Houthis have certainly tried but so far the air defenses of these vessels have been effective. That should continue unless the Houthis get really lucky or the Navy gets overwhelmed. 

The problem is that the mission to actually protect shipping in the Red Sea isn't working. The Houthis are still able to hit ships at will and have sunk some as well. Indeed, the 2nd ship sunk was hit this week, with one civilian sailor missing and presumed dead. Airstrikes have not been able to stop the missile and drone strikes, which now include sea drones, and I don't see how this could change. 

I think the main problem is that there aren't nearly enough ships to cover all of both the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Even if there was a 2nd carrier group in the area I don't think it would be enough ships to cover and intercept all of the weapons being launched, even if you include more ships from friendly nations. Our destroyers and cruisers are extremely powerful but there's only three of them deployed and that's just not enough. 

I do think that this kind of operational tempo is not sustainable. The Pentagon is saying they can sustain the use of weapons, but what about the crews and ships? Burnout is a thing and constant combat is eventually going to lead to both human mistakes and equipment failures. At some point these vessels are going to need an extended break to rest, rearm and repair, but I haven't heard of any replacements being authorized.  

Things could get significantly worse given that Russia has said they could give weapons to US enemies. The Houthis are getting mostly Iranian tech now, which is not terrible, but not at the same level as the Russians. If Russia does give the Houthis advanced weapons not only could down our airplanes but threaten our ships as well. That might not happen anytime soon, but it is a real threat. 

Either way, we should be questioning if this operation is even worth it at this point. Keeping the sea routes open is important but we aren't even accomplishing that. It also seems as though we are half-assing it, with not enough resources. Regardless, I do think it's time that the Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier group is replaced in the Red Sea with fresh ships and sailors.