Donald Trump says he would cut off aid for Ukraine

 

Donald Trump. Politico/Getty.

Donald Trump says that he would cut off aid for Ukraine. Politico. Trump made the comments over the weekend and said that he would have the issue settled. Trump was critical of Ukrainian President Zelensky, calling him the "greatest salesman of all time". Trump also said “He just left four days ago with $60 billion, and he gets home, and he announces that he needs another $60 billion. It never ends,” The Biden administration and Europe have tried to future-proof Ukraine aid in the event of a Trump presidency. The same day Trump made the comments, Kamala Harris announced another $1.5 billion in aid.

My Comment:

Donald Trump is saying all the right things here. I have never supported supporting Ukraine, even before the invasion from Russia. Indeed, one of the main criticisms for Trump that I had is that he gave any support to Ukraine at all. In a perfect world we would be allied with Russia and give them a free hand in Ukraine in exchange for help against China, but that ship has sailed... 

Biden on the other hand is continuing to send billions of dollars in aid and weapons and has almost nothing to show for it. Ukraine is losing the war and the best the aid can do is continue to drag things out. Instead of cutting off Ukraine, Biden is continuing to double down. 

Indeed, the entire thing is deeply cynical. I doubt even the true believers in the Pentagon and State Department believe that Ukraine can even get a favorable peace settlement now, let alone take back all the territory they have lost, including Crimea. They know Ukraine can't win but they are continuing to fund the war. 

Why? Because they don't want to take responsibility for the failure and want to delay the consequences until after the 2024 election. In their eyes it's win-win, if Trump wins then they can blame him for the failure. And if Biden wins, they can bank on people forgetting on an Ukraine debacle much like many people have forgotten about how Biden lost Afghanistan. 

I guess it is possible that the powers that be honestly believe they can still win the war. I have no idea what is going on behind closed doors in the White House and Pentagon, but if that's the case we could be in massive trouble. It is dangerous to have leadership this completely deluded. 

As for Trump, I do think he will be able to cut off aid from Ukraine. He might not be able to stop all aid that has already been allocated but the Presidency does have power over how money is spent. And he could use national security as a justification for doing so. Congress might have a problem with it though, so he might be forced to make some kind of deal to do so. 

It might depend on how things are going in the war. Russia is in no hurry to take territory back from Ukraine and mostly content in just destroying Ukrainian troops and infrastructure. Their attack near Kharkov has largely fizzled out, mostly because they didn't send all that many troops. There is still plenty of time for an actual major offensive over the summer, but Russia might be content to continue to keep up what they are doing with massive airstrikes and minor territorial gains. On the other hand, Ukraine probably won't be able to continue to fight for much longer given the almost total destruction of Ukraine's power generation. 

I do think that Trump can end the war in Ukraine. As it is both sides are putting out feelers but neither side is serious. But Trump can force new elections in Ukraine and after that a real peace deal could be made. I think Russia will probably get most of what they want. But the real problem is that Trump is term limited after a 2nd term and Russia would not be able to trust any deal he makes. I am still guessing the actual end of the war will require the collapse of the Ukraine government.