US estimates that Ukraine will be out of ammo by the end of March.

 

Ukrainian artillery. ABC News/AFP/Getty.

The United States has estimated that Ukraine will be out of ammo by the end of March. ABC News. The US officials quoted said that the Russians won the battle of Avdiivka due to a lack of weaponry. The United States has sent $44 billion in military aid but further aid is hung up in Congress. Anti-air weaponry is a major problem as it has allowed Russia to use their airpower against Ukrainian front lines, including devastating strikes with guided bombs. Ukraine is also largely out of the weapons they had been using against Russia, including rockets for the HIMARS launchers. It is unlikely that new funding for Ukraine will be secured in Congress due to disagreements with the war in general and conflict over funding for closing the US border. 

My Comment:

First of all, I have to point out how ludicrously biased the ABC News report was against Russia. They unironically quoted Ukrainian estimates of Russian combat casualties and that's absolutely ridiculous. There is no way that Russia has lost 2200 tanks and 315,000 casualties. Those numbers are absurd, even if Russia has faced heavy casualties in the war. And Russia has obviously had some major victories since last May, they were able to completely blunt the Ukrainian offensive to the point where they barely breeched the first line of defense. 

But even with the bias, the article does speak to something true. Ukraine is basically out of ammo and that means that they are in very deep trouble. They are right that Ukraine is not going to be able to do much if Russia achieves air dominance. 

I would argue that Russia already has. Ukraine's air force is a joke now and they are essentially out of air defenses. Russia is now able to use their KAB-500SE glide bombs to utterly destroy enemy fortifications. And that is a pattern that is going to continue as I am guessing most of Ukraine's remaining air defenses are going to be arrayed around Kiev. 

I don't think Ukraine is going to get any help either. I have said for awhile that both the Republicans and Democrats know that the gig is up in Ukraine. Both sides will blame each other for the failure to make a deal, Republicans will say it was because Democrats didn't want the border closed and Democrats will say they didn't care if Ukraine lost and both sides kind of have a point. 

I could be wrong and some kind of grand bargain will be made, but I think it's a moot point. The real issue is that even a major funding bill getting passed it's too late. The bill will be to produce more weapons, not send Ukraine stuff that has already been made. It would take years to produce the weapons Ukraine would need to fight off Russia. New funding will do almost nothing. 

And, of course, the ABC News article ignored the elephant in the room. All the weapons in the world are meaningless if you don't have the soldiers to use them. Ukraine does not. They have been so desperate for people they have been sending women, the disabled and the wounded to the front lines. And most soldiers are far too old to actually be soldiers now. Ukraine doesn't have any young people to begin with but Ukraine isn't even drafting them, they are just picking men in their 30's, 40's and even 50's. 

There is a major mobilization coming where they are supposedly going to draft 500,000 people. That will be pretty useless too since those people will not get the training they need to actually fight. From what I understand Ukrainian soldiers only get a few weeks of training and then are thrust onto the front lines. They obviously don't last long there as they don't have the skills they need to survive. 

Either way, it seems clear that the media can no longer deny what has been obvious from the start. Ukraine has no chance to win this war and we are only throwing good money after bad. Indeed, I think the whole issue might be moot as it seems like Russia is advancing all over the front lines.