Senate deal that would fund the border and the wars in Ukraine and Israel appears to be falling apart.

 

Mitch McConnell. Politico. 

A Senate deal that would fund the border and the wars in Ukraine and Israel and appears to be falling apart. Politico. Both Republicans and Democrats have problems with the bill, but the bill is finding very little support from Republicans in the Senate. Mitch McConnell, who had advanced the bill, gave Republican Senators permission to vote against the bill if they do not like it in its current form. However, a revised deal is likely to see more opposition from Democrats if it is presented in a form in Republicans can vote for. The bill has been described as dead on arrival if it makes it to the house, so many Republican senators are openly wondering if there is any point in passing the bill in the first place. 

My Comment:

Everything I have heard about this bill in terms of the border has been terrible. Its reception on social media has been almost exclusively negative and most people believe that it will do nothing to actually stop the border crisis. The short list of complaints is that it would give Joe Biden full authority over when and if it would be implemented and it would give far too many loopholes to allow a large number of illegal immigrants into the country. 

It's no wonder that the Republican rank and file are opposed to the bill. Anything short of closing the border and mandatory deporting of anyone in the country illegally was not going to be popular among Republican voters, let alone one that empowers Joe Biden to ignore the bill if he wants, which he does. Indeed, the whole reason for this bill is the fact that Joe Biden is already ignoring the border. 

But the border isn't the only reason to hate this bill. Both the right and the left have reasons to oppose the funding of the wars in Israel and Ukraine. Israel is a rich country and doesn't really need our funding while the war in Ukraine is both immoral and lost. And the left hates Israel while the right is getting more and more frustrated with the war in Ukraine being dragged out. 

I almost think that this bill was meant to fail. I think everyone is looking for an offramp for the Ukraine war. It's pretty obvious that Ukraine can't win the war even with support from the United States. All US aid would do is prolong the war. But the American government can't admit they made a mistake in starting and funding the war. 

I have said for awhile that the Ukraine war funding was not sustainable and that both the Republicans and Democrats want to blame each other for the failure of the war. What better way to do that than bundling the Ukraine funding with a border bill that was doomed to fail? This is the offramp they have been looking for and I think that was the entire point. 

I also don't think any side is really serious about dealing with the border. Biden has the power to shut down the border right now, but he refuses to do so since he wants the border open. Partially because it will given his party more votes and also because he knows that the progressive wing of his party wants the border open for ideological reasons. 

And the Republicans? I think the more MAGA wing of the party does want to close the border. But the neocon "mainstream" Republicans want the border open as much as the Democrats. They want wages low and they hate their voters as much as the Democrats do. So I don't expect anything to get done about this issue unless Trump wins in 2024. Given that immigration was the main reason Trump won in 2016 I think there's a good chance that he will be able to do so. 

Will an 11th hour revised bill pass? I seriously doubt it. Again, this bill was designed to fail. It's an offramp for the Ukraine war and the leadership of both parties want the status quo ante where the border is open and neither side actually has to do anything about it. And even if a more palatable bill for Republicans is crafted, there is  little chance that the Democrats will support it.