News media admits that Russia has regained the initiative in the Ukraine War.

 

Ukraine drone operators practicing with their drones. Reuters.

Ukraine is outnumbered and outgunned by Russia and is being ground down. Reuters. Russia had a major victory in taking the long contested city of Avdiivka, a battle where the Russians outnumbered the Ukrainians 7 to 1. Ukrainians soldiers complain about a lack of weapons and troops, and how much pressure Russia is putting on the front lines. Ukraine does have a good supply of drones, but even those are outnumbered by the drones on the Russian side. But now both sides are using anti-drone electronic warfare as well. 

My Comment:

There were quite a few of these kinds of articles today all with similar themes. Ukrainian soldiers complaining of a lack of supplies. An admission that there are attacks all over the front lines. And finally recognizing the scale of Russia's victory in Avdiivka. It's obviously a trend and it shows that Russia is on the assault. 

I'm on record saying that Russia was always going to win the war in Ukraine. It was obvious given the scale of Russia's military, manpower and production compared to Ukraine's that they had every advantage. They were always going to win short of NATO joining the war directly and even then it wouldn't be a sure thing. 

That isn't to say that Russia hasn't faced setbacks. Ukraine is doing pretty well on the naval side of the battle and Russia had several major setbacks where they lost a lot of the territory they took early in the war. Much of that is because Russia tried to do the war on the cheap during the early days of the war and did not commit much of their forces. That has obviously changed and it's clear that Russia is all in on the war. 

Russia's mistakes were a lot more affordable to them then it was for Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine, Russia was smart to trade territory for the lives of their soldiers. Ukraine did the opposite, fighting to almost the last man in Soledar, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. And they launched an extremely ill advised summer offensive that not only failed in its goals, it lost a huge amount of equipment and lives. 

The situation is a lot more dire than the media is admitting though. Ukraine has largely run out of troops and they don't really have much in the way of reserves. Russia is attacking on basically all fronts. They are attacking in five major areas, Avdiivka, Marinka, Robotyne, Kremmina, and Bakhmut. Ukraine does not have the reserves to cover all of those fronts. And Russia is strong enough that if Ukraine does move forces to plug these holes, they will face new attacks on new fronts. 

It's too the point where I would not be surprised if we see a major collapse of the Ukrainian Army. Not a full collapse, perhaps, but I would not be surprised if the territorial stalemate the war has been stuck in changes. If the front line units break or surrender we could see Russia regain much of the territory they lost.