Ukraine begins to withdraw troops from Avdiivka

 

An Ukrainian serviceman. NBC/AFP/Getty. 

Ukraine has begun to withdraw troops from Avdiivka in a major sign that the battle is not going there way. NBC News. Avdiivka is a critical city that allows Ukraine to shell targets in Donetsk and Russia has been trying to capture it for two years, and it held throughout the civil war. However, the city is now surrounded by three sides and most supply routes are blocked. One of Ukraine's last major units, the 3rd Assault Brigade, created from the notorious neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, has been deployed to the city in an effort to buy time for these redeployments. Troops from that brigade say that the fighting is more fierce than the battle in Bakhmut, a brutal battle under similar circumstances that Ukraine lost last year. Ukraine has been facing major supply and personnel problems for months now. 

My Comment:

I haven't mentioned the battle of Avdiivka on my blog yet but I have been covering it on my social media accounts on X and Gab. In short, the media is finally recognizing that Russia is winning the battle of Avdiivka. 

A quick note. Don't take my spelling the name of the city by the Ukrainian spelling (Avdiivka) instead of the Russian spelling (Avdeevka) as support of Ukraine or their actions. It's more an effort at simplicity. If you don't specifically search out the information, and even if you did it's hard to find, you wouldn't ever know the Russian spelling of the city. It's just another example of how incredibly biased western media in favor of Ukraine. 

They are also downplaying the identify of the 3rd Assault Brigade. They are essentially the Azov Battalion, a notorious neo-Nazi group that was guilty of several atrocities during the civil war. They are, to be frank, very bad people. 

I don't think their deployment to a city that is going to fall is a mistake either. There is a good chance that they will be trapped and destroyed in Avdiivka which probably suits Zelensky just fine. The far right neo-Nazi national faction in Ukraine is extremely dedicated to the war, largely because their punishment would be necessary in any deal with Russia. If the 3rd Assault Brigade is destroyed they are less of a threat to Zelensky and might make a coup against Zelensky less likely. 

As for the battle itself it's not going well for the Ukrainians. They have had a extremely rough time of it and are facing the exact same situations they faced during the battles of Bakhmut and Soledar. Pro-Russian voices have called these battles "cauldrons" and I think that's a good term for it. In all three battles Ukraine kept troops in battles where they were surrounded on three sides and their supply routes were under "control" of Russian artillery, the Russians hadn't blocked the supply routes but they could hit them easily with artillery fire. 

Avdiivka is a lot worse than Bakhmut and Soledar though. Why? Russia has air superiority now, Ukraine is largely out of anti-air defenses. Plus Russia has managed to fully deploy their equivalent of JDAM's, the KAB500S-E. These cheap guided bombs have been used effectively and dozens of them are being used every day. This has been absolutely devastating for the Ukrainians. Plus, the main supply route out of the city has now been cut by the Russians. 

One does wonder why Ukraine has held onto Avdiivka for so long. The correct military thing to have done is to pull out of the city and pull back to a different defensive line. Trade territory for lives. But instead they are fighting almost to the last man and are only withdrawing. Why? I honestly think its because they hate the people of Donetsk and want to continue to shell them. Indeed, even as they run out of shells they have continued to shell the city. 

With the city about to fall I do think that we are entering the end game for the Ukraine war. Even if some version of the $95 billion aid package passes in the House, it won't matter. Ukraine's supply problems are bad but the real problem is the number of troops. They simply don't have the manpower to continue to fight, most of their units are depleted and most of the fighters are men in their 40's and 50's. As someone that hit 40 last year, I can't imagine having to go to war at that age. 

And they don't have much manpower to draw from. Supposedly by April they are going to have a general mobilization but even if that happens, they don't have many young people to send to the front. Ukraine has a major lack of 18 to 25 year old men. Many of them have also fled the country and the ones that stay are absolutely critical for the economy. And even if they do, they would have to train them if they have any chance of surviving, let alone making an impact on the battlefield. By then it's likely to be too late.