Donald Trump speaks at his victory party. AP.
Donald Trump has blown out Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina. AP. Trump has now won every contest in the 2024 primary race, including Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, the US Virgin Islands and South Carolina. Despite the loss Haley says she will continue the race until Super Tuesday, which is March 5th. The Associated Press called the race almost immediately after polls closed. Though Haley hasn't dropped out, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are treating each other like they are the nominees. Haley's path to nomination appears even narrower now. The next major race is next Tuesday in Michigan, where Trump is expected to win as well.
My Comment:
As of this writing, with 84% of polls counted, Trump is leading Haley 60% to 39.4% and will take almost all of the State's delegates, with Haley only getting 3 of 50. This is a better performance for Haley than I was expecting but also close to what the polling was saying. Either way, it's an utter humiliation for a candidate to the point where I don't understand why she is running anymore.
Indeed, it's not like things get any easier for Haley after South Carolina. In Michigan, the last poll had Trump at 80% support, thought that was probably an outlier. But in many of the Super Tuesday states, Trump does get 80% of support or better and I don't know if Haley can win a single one of those states. Maybe California if there are a ton of Democrats that cross over? Maybe Utah, which has never been a super popular Trump state? Even then, one or two states isn't going to do it and it seems very unlikely that Haley will even do that.
I already speculated as to what Haley is even doing at this point so I won't belabor the point. But I have to think she is humiliated by these results. She not only lost her home state, she did so in a landslide, and that's with Democrats crossing over to vote for her as South Carolina is an open primary state. This is the kind of defeat that ends political careers, but Haley is apparently still ready for more.
As for Donald Trump, I think it's safe to say baring something terrible or unprecedented happening, he's the 2024 Republican nominee, for better or worse. Voters clearly want him to have a 2nd term and it's also clear that the neocon wing of the party, which Haley is part of, will not be able to win with him still in control of the party.
I will say that I think it was Haley's neocon tendencies that killed her in South Carolina. AP exit polls said that 6 of 10 Republicans want to cut off funding for Ukraine, and nobody has been a bigger Ukraine backer than Haley has been. Given that she lost the race by about the same percentage I think that's very relevant.
2024 appears very likely to be a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Unlike a lot of people, I am expecting Biden to be the candidate in November. He arrogantly believes that he is the best shot the Democrats have at beating Trump and he is also running to keep his son out of prison. And it's pretty clear that Trump has the nomination locked up. I am guessing most of the legal nonsense he is locked up in will simply go away after Super Tuesday, unless Democrats really double down and try to keep him off the ballot or otherwise deal with him.
Who will win in 2024? In a sane world it should be a landslide for Trump, Biden has been a terrible president and the polls mostly indicate Trump's in a decent lead. But I fear nothing has been done to secure elections after the 2020 and 2022 debacles. I think Democrats will try and cheat in 2024 as well, but election fraud can only take you so far and I am hoping that the race isn't so close as it was in 2024.
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