Joe Biden will finally visit East Palestine Ohio, a year after the train derailment disaster. Too little too late?

 

The train derailment in East Palestine Ohio. New York Post/AP.

Joe Biden will finally visit East Palestine Ohio a year after the train derailment disaster. New York Post. Joe Biden had said that he would visit the site of the disaster but has not done so. Biden's presumptive opponent, Donald Trump, had visited the town quickly after the disaster. Trump sarcastically said that Biden will get a warm reception from the visitors while locals have said that the visit is a transparent election ploy from Joe Biden. The train disaster spread thousands of pounds of toxic chemicals, including vinyl chloride and four other dangerous chemicals. The residents of the town that did not move away report health issues and concerns. 

My Comment:

This is a fairly baffling move by Joe Biden to the point where I consider it an own goal. Though there would surely be some coverage of the disaster on the one year anniversary of the disaster, most people had forgotten about it and Biden's poor reaction to it. By going there Biden is making the story about him again and that will not go well for him. 

Of course, if Biden had been at all competent, he would have arrived soon after the disaster. All he had to do was show up, pass out some supplies and act like he cared. Trump did that. Senator JD Vance did that. 

But Biden? He didn't. He didn't act like he cared at all. And it's pretty clear why. This disaster happened in Trump country. Biden doesn't care about these people, he hates them and has done everything he could to make them miserable. It's flyover country in a state that Biden has almost zero chance of winning in 2024. And I honestly think that he views a bunch of Trump voters getting poisoned as a solution, not a problem. 

The people of East Palestine know this and that's why I half expect some kind of incident to happen in the town. The folks that live in this town know that Biden doesn't actually care about them and will probably let Biden know about that if they get the opportunity. Indeed, I expect to see a lot of Trump flags in the town and more than a few middle fingers directed at Biden. 

Of course, this will be a tightly controlled media event unless Biden's team has lost their mind. I am sure they will find the one Democrat in town to say thank you to Joe Biden for all his supposed work in helping the town. And the real people of East Palestine? They won't be allowed within 100 feet of Joe Biden. 

Donald Trump has another opportunity here. While Biden has his media event, Trump should again hold an event with the normal people of East Palestine. Have a meet and greet with the locals and show that unlike Biden, he was there from the start. It could totally undercut Joe Biden and make him look like a fool. Hopefully Trump will be able to make the trip. 

If there is good news in this it's that perhaps the people of East Palestine will be getting more help. With the media covering the story and both political parties having an interest in helping, perhaps the people  of the town will finally get some of the help they need. 

"Take our Border Back" protests to occur on border.

 

Take our Border Back protesters in Florida. New York Post/AP.

Take our Border Back protests will occur on the border on February 3rd. New York Post. Organizers expect as many as 700,000 people to show up in the small border town of Quemado, Texas, near the location of the standoff between Federal and Texas at Eagle Pass. They also say the event is not political and consists of people from across political classes and beliefs, but all agree that something has to be done about illegal immigration. A 2nd convoy is heading to Yuma Arizona from California. The rally will have speakers including victims of Fentanyl and homicides by illegal immigrants. The organizers say that they will not tolerate any actions done by infiltrators or racists. 

My Comment:

This appears to have been inspired by the Canadian protests against coronavirus restrictions. Those protests were extremely successful as Canada, and the rest of the world for that matter, rejected coronavirus restrictions afterwards. It's normal folks heading to these rallies in Texas and Arizona and that should make the powers that be nervous. 

However, it's also important to note that it doesn't appear that these folks are going to use the same tactics that were effective in Canada and are being tried in Europe right now with the anti-climate law farmer protests. It does not sound like these folks are going to actually do anything, like physically block the border or make the lives of the elites ordering this nonsense any harder. Canada's protests were effective because they made the elites lives miserable and actually hit their pocket book by blocking trade. A few people giving a speech isn't going to do much of anything. 

Of course, I think a lot of this is due to fear. Everyone knows what happened to the organizers and participants in the Canadian protests. Some went to jail, many lost their jobs and access to banks and they were generally made into 2nd class citizens. We all know that America under Biden isn't any less tyrannical than Canada under Trudeau, so doing something against the interests of the Biden administration is very dangerous. 

The shadow of January 6th protests hangs heavy over these protests as well. No wonder they are saying that they are going to kick out any infiltrators and that they will monitor anyone from three letter agencies. They are certainly afraid of both a false flag attack or people trying to infiltrate the rally to discredit it. 

But I doubt that much will happen. With these protests just being rallies I don't think much will be accomplished and I don't think that the government will care that much. If they were actually doing something more than an a rally I think there would be more of a response, but that isn't gong to happen. It will be a protest and it will probably make people feel better about things but not much else. 

On the other hand, people have to actually be willing to do something if things are going to change in this country. It's almost an article of faith now among the right wing, or even any group that's opposed to the Biden administration, that any protest is going to be infiltrated by the FBI. Though that is true, it does not mean that people should not protest against this government. They just have to be very careful to avoid any agent provocateur. 

As for the controversy itself, I do think that immigration is out of control in this country. It makes absolutely no sense to just let anyone and everyone who wants to come in to come in. Doing so has been an absolute disaster for both America and the economy. Illegal immigrants are a huge drain to America and are causing huge economic damage. It's a major reason why rent is so high and these folks are also taking billions of dollars in aid that could have gone to American citizens. 

Something has to be done. Biden is refusing to do anything about the border and though I doubt this protest will do much, it will at least send a message that ordinary people are sick and tired of what they are doing. But I doubt anything will change until Biden is out of office. 

Hamas appears to spike cease fire deal that would have released hostages.

 

Smoke rises from Khan Yunis in Gaza. New York Post/Reuters.

Hamas appears to have vetoed an idea that would have released hostages and could have perhaps even ended the war. New York Post. The deal would have given Gaza aid and the release of prisoners in exchange for the release of remaining hostages and remains and four months of a cease fire, which would be used to create a peace deal. The hostages would be released in phases with children and the elderly released first, then female IDF soldiers, then males and then remains. Hamas rejected the deal saying they wanted a cease fire first before they even wanted to talk. Last week Hamas rejected a similar proposal that fell apart after Hamas demanded Israel unilaterally withdraw from Gaza. 

My Comment:

This was a better deal than Hamas deserves and it's honestly surprising that they didn't jump on it. Hamas is losing the war and Israel is winning so they are the ones that should be dictating terms. A ceasefire and the release of hostages, along with a real path to the end of the war, is about as good as terms they are likely to get. 

It makes me wonder if Hamas knows something we don't know. Perhaps they want the Houthi blockade in the Red Sea to work. Perhaps they know Hezbollah is going to join the war. Or perhaps they know that the United States and Iran are going to go at it. All of those things are possibilities and it would make sense that they would reject this deal if they knew everything was going to change quickly. 

Indeed, we are all waiting for what Joe Biden's next move is in the region. If he does move against Iran, and that's what the rumors are saying, then Gaza will just be a sideshow in a much larger regional war. They are kind of that already as the attacks in Iraq, Syria, Jordan and in the Red Sea are a lot more important to non-Israel countries then their activities in Gaza. 

Still, it does show that Hamas isn't really serious about ending the war. This is a good deal for them and if they were smart the would take it for sure. The fact that they are not shows a lot about the morality of this war. Hamas cares more about killing Israelis than protecting the people of Gaza or ending the war.

I also think that the people calling for an end of the war won't exactly be upset about Hamas rejecting this peace deal. From what I can tell they just hate Israel and Jews and won't be satisfied by anything other than an Israeli defeat, which is about as likely as a Ukraine victory at this point. You would think they would be more happy with a four month cease fire, but I guess that's not in the cards.  

Three US soldiers killed in Jordan, Biden vows repercussions.

 

The US tower 22 base in Jordan that came under attack. AP/Planet Labs BBC.

Three US soldiers were killed in a drone strike on a US base in Jordan. AP. Dozens more were injured by the attack which has been blamed on an Iran-backed militias. Biden and his Secretary of Defense said that there would be retaliation against the people that carried out the attack. 350 troops are deployed at the Tower 22 base in Jordan which assists Jordan's military and assists the anti-ISIS operation in Syria. Iran-backed militias have been very active in attacking US bases in the region since the Israel-Gaza war broke out, but this is the first time anyone has been killed in these attacks. 

My Comment:

Already the warmongers in the Senate are calling for war with Iran over this incident. Both Linsey Graham and John Cornyn are calling for attacks on Iran, which would lead to a large regional war at best, and attacks on the homeland at worst. 

Are the warmongers going to get their wish? Probably not. I do think that there will be airstrikes after this attack, there pretty much has to be considering our response to these attacks in the past has been airstrikes, but I don't see much more beyond that. The risks of a major war with Iran are just too high. 

Some would say we are in a de facto war with Iran anyways, which is probably true. Though Iran hasn't attacked us or our troops directly, we are getting attacked by their proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, though the Houthis in Yemen are more independent than anyone gives them credit for. I doubt that these militias in Iraq and Syria are doing this on their own and they are absolutely getting their weapons from Iran. 

Speaking of weapons, this attack shows how powerful drones are in modern warfare. Such an attack on an American base would have been unthinkable a few years ago but they are now common. Most of them are not all that effective but this one resulted in deaths. They are extremely hard to defend against and I have heard rumors that our air defenses at Tower 22 was unable to intercept this attack, which would make sense given how weak American air defenses are. 

The real question is why the troops were in Jordan in the first place in this remote base. The answer is ostensibly to fight ISIS but ISIS has been defeated years ago. It really seems like all these troops are doing is drawing fire from Iranian backed militias. In a sane world people would be questioning that but apparently not, we just go along with it. 

I do think that we do have to respond in some way to this incident. After all US troops die. It's not like they shot down one of our drones, they killed three US soldiers. There has to be a response to that. And my guess that response will be bombing the bases of these militias. Will that accomplish anything? Probably not. It's very likely we will bomb some empty buildings and nothing will change. 

But it's not like there are any good options. Bombing Iran like the neocons want will lead to a major regional war. Given the fact that the US border is completely open and both Iran and Hezbollah have major forces in the United States as sleeper agents, we would have a major risk of widespread terror attacks on US civilians. Doing nothing isn't an option either so we are stuck with bombing the militias. 

Regardless, I don't see a way out of this. The war between Israel and Hamas is going to continue and it's likely that once they are done with Hamas they will likely go after Hezbollah in Lebanon. There isn't really a way out of this conflict for the United States, short of pulling our troops out of the region, which I can't see happening. As long as that is the case expect more of these drone attacks and more injuries and deaths among our troops. 

25 states join Texas is defying Biden administration and Supreme Court ruling over border.

 

A Texas Guardsman at the border. Politico. 

25 states have joined Texas in defying the Biden administration and a Supreme Court ruling over the open border. Politico. A coalition of Republican governors signed a statement supporting the actions of Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Texas had put up razor wire to prevent illegal immigrants from crossing the border near Eagle Pass, but the Supreme Court had ruled that the Biden Administration could order the wire cut. The governors argue that since Biden has abdicated his role in protecting the border, and is actively assisting the invaders, they have the right to protect the border. 

My Comment:

Politico made an error in their post saying only 24 states have joined Greg Abbott in defiance against the Biden administration. However, other sources have confirmed that it's 25, plus Texas of course. I am not sure why Politico got the number wrong. 

Counting Texas the majority of states are opposed to Joe Biden's actions on the border. They are all controlled by Republicans but I am guessing that there would be more states if we counted states that are controlled by the GOP in the legislative branches. The only GOP governor that didn't go along with this is Vermont's governor, Phil Scott, who presumably doesn't want to get voted out by his blue state. 

It's also important to note that some of these states have sent troops to the border. 14 states have sent troops and support to Texas to help enforce the border and those troops aren't going anywhere. That number may rise with this declaration. 

Supposedly Biden has said that Texas has until tomorrow at noon to remove the razor wire or allow the border patrol to do so. That seems extremely unlikely to happen, Abbott has zero reason to back down and everything to gain by keeping things going. And I don't think that Biden can actually do much here. 

Indeed, Biden's options are extremely limited. Keeping the border open is clearly a priority for him and his regime backers and I don't know if he can realistically back down. Not only would his handlers be extremely mad about it, he would also lose more support from the far-left. To be fair, those folks aren't going to vote for Biden anyways, due to the Israel-Hamas war, but Biden still doesn't want to risk it.

If Abbott backs down? Biden still loses. There's going to be cameras there showing border patrol agents cutting razor wire all over the internet and it will show that Biden cares more about protecting illegal aliens than he does about American citizens. This would almost certainly give Donald Trump such an advantage in 2024 that there isn't really a way for him to lose at that point, even considering voter fraud and other dirty tricks. 

But the worst case scenario? Abbott doesn't back down and Biden tries to use force to open the border. If he does there's a real chance the military or other government enforcement agencies tell him to pound sand. The Texas National Guard will almost certainly avoid his orders and I am guessing that there would be a lot of dissension in the ranks. It could even lead to a coup against Biden if he tried to use force against a State Government. 

The other possible result is also the least likely. I am, of course, referring to the idea that a gunfight between state and federal forces leads to a 2nd American Civil War. That is very possible given how unhinged Biden seems to be and I don't think people would tolerate actual violence used against Texas soldiers. Especially when the cause is something that is as clearly unpopular as illegal immigration. And at that point the American people would be more than justified in rising up against the Biden regime... 

What I do think is that the days of Americans simply going along with whatever Biden wants is over. People are sick of his actions and just because the Supreme Court gave him some minimal cover it does not mean that people are going to just give him a pass anymore. It's very possible that the States are going to tell Biden to pound sand on other issues as well... 

Arizona GOP chairman resigns after audio leaks showing an apparent bribery attempt against Senate candidate Kari Lake.

 

Kari Lake. NBC News/AP.

The chairman of the Arizona Republicans has resigned after audio leaks showed an apparent bribery attempt to get Senate candidate Kari Lake to drop out of the race. NBC News. Jeff Dewit offered Kari Lake a lucrative job in the private sector if she were to take a two year "pause" on her political ambitions. Dewit resigned saying that he did so to avoid having an even more damaging tape released. Dewit claims he did nothing wrong as was only trying to protect the party and Lake, who Dewit claims won't win the Senate race, despite it being a three way race. Dewit was quoted in the audio as saying "there are very powerful people that want to keep you out". Who "they" are is unclear but Dewit said it was "people out east". Lake responded to the offer by saying she "couldn't be bought". 

The audio was released in an exclusive report from the Daily Mail. 

My Comment:

This goes to show how deep the rot is in the Republican Party. Bribing a popular candidate to not run is not the action of a party that is healthy. And the fact that Dewit tried to defend his actions here is beyond parody. 

Was this a crime? I am not sure. I am not an expert on Arizona law of course. Plus, Kari Lake is currently a private citizen. So he can't be charged with attempting to bribe a public official. And I don't know if this kind of quid-pro-quo is illegal or not. But if it isn't? It absolutely should be. 

This incident does raise more questions then it answers. Who were the folks "out east" that wanted Lake to drop out? What were their names? Why do they think that Lake can't win despite it being a three person race and that Lake only lost the Governor's race because her opponent, Katie Hobbs, was literally in charge of the election? Who is willing to give Lake a lucrative job and what was the job? Perhaps some of that information would have been revealed if Dewit hadn't resigned in the second audio.

Dewit is claiming the audio is out of context and edited, which is the classic move when any damaging audio is released. Is it possible there was some context that was removed? Probably not. I can't imagine any context where what he said was acceptable. 

This has improved my impression of Kari Lake. She has proven that she can't be bought, which is probably why she had the audio released in the first place. This is about as good of a story she could get if the electorate is concerned about possible corruption. If she would turn down bribes as a private citizen, then she would presumably do it as a Senator for Arizona. 

It also means that Lake is probably going to be the candidate for the GOP in 2024 in the senate race. And it also means she has a decent chance of winning. Most polls have her tied with the Democratic candidate, Ruben Gallego, regardless if Krysten Sinema runs. This scandal should put her over the edge given how she handled the scandal. 

As for the Republicans, this was a good argument for electing outsiders like Kari Lake in the first place. It's clear that there is a sickness deep in the party that is more concerned with electing the "right" people that will play the game instead of people that actually represent the people. It's why we can't get anything done on the border, it's why Biden hasn't been impeached and it's why the GOP simply lied down and died when the Democrats stole the 2020 election. Hopefully by electing people like Lake we can finally start to change that. 

Donald Trump wins New Hampshire primary.

 

Donald Trump at an election party. Fox News/AP.

Donald Trump has won the New Hampshire primary over the last remaining primary opponent, Nikki Haley. Fox News. The New Hampshire race was called shortly after the polls closed, though Trump's margin of victory is in the single digits as of this writing. Joe Biden also won the primary race despite his name not being on the ballot due to New Hampshire refusing to move their primary date. New Hampshire has an open primary with Democrats and Independents allowed to vote in Republican races. Nikki Haley has not dropped out and is going all in on her home state of South Carolina, ignoring the Nevada Caucuses due to not being competitive there. Trump blasted Haley for acting like she won a victory despite losing the state. 

Live coverage:

Yahoo

CBS News

My Comment:

It's unclear just how big Donald Trump's victory will be tonight. It's very possible that Trump's win will be a double digit victory. Indeed, with 45% of the vote counted Trump has a 10 point lead, but that could change as the night goes on as the margin of victory keeps changing. 

Regardless, this shows the weakness of Nikki Haley and the strength of Donald Trump. Haley supposedly had all the advantages in New Hampshire. Ron DeSantis, her primary opposition, dropped out. Democrats and Independents were allowed to vote. Joe Biden was not in a comparative race and his name was not even on the ballot due to the DNC punishing the state for not moving their primaries around. Even with all of those advantages, not only was Haley not able to win, it looks like the race isn't even close. 

I personally think that Haley should drop out after this. If she had won the state or lost by a razor thin margin it might make sense to continue but with a major loss like this she doesn't really have a reason to keep going. 

And it's not like the next two states are going to go well for her. She's not even trying to play for Nevada as that is Trump country for the primary race (and possibly for the 2024 general). That alone is a very bad sign, so she is putting all of her remaining efforts into South Carolina, which happens to be her home state. According to 538, Trump's got 62% support in Haley's state, with Haley only getting 25% of the vote. 

If Nikki Haley was smart she would drop out now. Not doing so risks the humiliation of losing in her home state by a huge margin and getting totally embarrassed. And it's a pretty safe bet that Trump will win in South Carolina and once that happens I can't see Haley winning. Trump will have a large delegate lead and I can't see Haley catching up. 

The only thing I can think of is that Haley expects some kind of huge news that would knock Trump out of the race or, and I hesitate to even write this, she expects something to happen to Donald Trump. I can't think of any other reason for her to still be in the race. Unless she is really just that determined to destroy her political career. 

Supreme Court rules against Texas enforcing the border.

 

Barbed wire at the border in Eagle Pass Texas. AP. 

In a 5-4 ruling the Supreme Court has said that the Biden Administration may cut barbed wire and prevent Texas from enforcing the border. AP. The ruling will presumably allow US border agents to cut wire and allow illegal immigrants to again cross the border. The wire was placed near Eagle Pass Texas, a major artery for illegal immigrants entering the country. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has attempted to stop the flow by taking over a park and putting up razor wire. The Biden administration argued that putting up the wire made it more difficult for border agents to do their jobs. The case will continue after the ruling. 

My Comment:

The Biden Administration actions on the border are borderline treasonous and the actions of the Supreme Court here are baffling. It's insane that Texas isn't even being allowed to secure the border despite the inaction of the Biden Administration. The border is open and nobody is doing anything to stop illegal immigration. 

It is unclear if the Abbott Administration will even abide to this order. They are already keeping border agents from the border and have taken over sections of the border. It would be a major move to prevent border agents from cutting this wire and it's a real possibility that they will do so. 

If Abbott doesn't abide to the SCOTUS ruling it could result in a constitutional crisis. Abbott could decide to say "The Supreme Court has made their ruling, now let them enforce it" and that would be that. Biden would be out of options outside of physical force and that would lead to a civil war. Is Biden that stupid and/or crazy? I am not sure. But I doubt it's a move that his advisers would tell him to make. 

The inaction on this issue is political suicide for the Democrats and it's absurd that they are doing it in an election year. Trump won in 2016 because of illegal immigration and it was his biggest mistake to not focus on it in 2020. I cannot understand why the Biden administration would push the issue. 

It does seem to confirm the "great replacement" theory, that the powers that be want to replace the population of this country with illegal immigrants that will be more easy to control. The media has demonized the theory as being "white supremacists" but they also don't really argue that it isn't happening. I'd also say that calling it racist is also ridiculous as it's not just White people getting replaced. It's Black, Asian and Hispanics being replaced as well. And they are competing with these illegal immigrants. 

Illegal immigrants and asylum seekers are also a major reason why housing prices are out of control. These people are given places to live and that drives up the prices of both homes and rent. If these folks were getting deported prices would go down. But they aren't and everyone is feeling the pinch of high prices. 

The problem is going to be difficult to deal with if/when Donald Trump wins back the Presidency. Deporting these people is going to take a long time and many of them are having kids here. And we would still have until 2025 before the border would be closed. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better, assuming they get better at all.

And that's assuming that Abbott doesn't force the issue. I would support him doing so. Illegal immigration is a huge threat to American workers and given the current geopolitical situation, it's also a threat to national security. Perhaps a sleeper cell infiltrating the border and committing a major terror attack would be the thing that actually forced Biden to do something about the open border... 

Ron DeSantis drops out of 2024 Presidential Race, endorses Donald Trump. What went wrong with his campaign?

 

Ron DeSantis in Iowa. AP.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has dropped out of the 2024 GOP presidential race and has endorsed rival Donald Trump. AP. DeSantis said that the GOP base clearly wanted Donald Trump and blasted the only other major candidate in the race, Nikki Haley. DeSantis got 2nd place in the Iowa Caucus but he was not polling well in other early states like New Hampshire and South Carolina. Though he got 2nd in Iowa he did not deal a killing blow to Nikki Haley who was only a few percentage points behind him. Despite strong buzz before his run, DeSantis did not have a good campaign with a buggy and glitched opening. 

My Comment:

I have been thinking about writing this post for a long time as it was clear that not only was Ron DeSantis going to lose, he was going to lose in spectacular fashion. That has come to pass and it's now time to detail exactly why DeSantis went from a promising governor to essentially a joke. 

Ron DeSantis never should have run in the first place. I know some people thought that he could take down Donald Trump but that was never in the cards. Trump was essentially an incumbent and is the most popular Republican in generations. Taking him down was never going to be easy in the first place, but even by those standards DeSantis did poorly. 

So why did DeSantis fail? Well for one thing he turned a lot of people off by running in the first place. A lot of people, including myself, defended DeSantis when he was doing his pre-campaign world tour. I honestly though that he wouldn't run and everyone was worried for nothing. But then he announced his campaign and everyone had to eat crow.

DeSantis also had a lot of problems with the opening of his campaign. Instead of announcing it in a crowd in his home state of Florida, he did it on X and it didn't work out at all. The announcement was glitched out and buggy and widely mocked by just about everyone. Had he done a more traditional campaign announcement he would have started his campaign on the right foot. 

DeSantis also angered a lot of people by his flip-flopping on the Ukraine issue. At times he was very critical of the war but then he would go right back to criticizing Vladimir Putin. It was very clear what DeSantis was doing, he was trying to peel off Trump voters who were a lot more skeptical of the war but also wanted to appeal to the neocons in the party that supported the war. This backfired on him as nobody really knew where he actually stood on the issue. 

The biggest problem had to have been his army of online "influencers". These folks, like Bill Mitchell and Christina Pushaw were absolutely insufferable. I have blocked and muted a lot of people on X but Bill Mitchell remains the only one I have muted that has never directly contacted me, his posts were that bad. I did briefly look at his account today just to see the meltdown, but it was the behavior of these folks, more than anything else, that turned a lot of people away from the DeSantis campaign. 

So what did those influencers do that was so bad? They picked a fight with anyone pro-Trump and, eventually, pro-Haley and did it in the most annoying way. Indeed, if it wasn't for the gator emoji that many of them would have passed for the most obvious Democrat shills. Indeed, I saw these accounts spouting the exact same debunked crap that the Democrats were spouting and it was terrible. 

I am sure that the DeSantis supporters would say that there were pro-Trump accounts that acted like jerks as well. I would agree with that, there are bad actors in every political movement. The problem is that there were plenty of more reasonable people on the Trump side, but the only people that got any attention at all from the DeSantis side were the bad actors. They even drowned out DeSantis himself to the point where I rarely heard about anything he did, just what his supporters were doing. 

DeSantis also went all in on Iowa, which appears to have been a mistake. He did manage to get 2nd place, but it was not a convincing win against Haley. When go go all in, you risk losing everything and that is what happened. Contrast to Haley's campaign. Though I don't like Haley, she didn't go all in on one state. She will still lose but she will hang on longer than DeSantis did. 

The DeSantis base was also pretty small. From what I could tell DeSantis supporters fell into one of two camps. The first group was people that voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but thought he was too damaged to win in 2024. This group appears to be on board with supporting Trump, albeit reluctantly, now that DeSantis dropped out. 

The 2nd group was hardcore antivaxxers that blamed Trump for everything that happened with the Coronavirus vaccines. Though Trump was responsible for the early rollout of the vaccine, these folks blamed him for things that happened after he was out of office. They are also single issue voters and will probably jump to RFK Jr. I honestly don't think this group is particularly large but they do make up a large number of very noisy people on social media. 

I don't think that Ron DeSantis has much of a future. Though I am sure people are appreciating the fact that he endorsed Trump, the timing of this withdrawal was suspicious. Though he was doing extremely poorly in New Hampshire, I suspected he would drop out after. DeSantis was never going to get more than single digits but dividing the anti-Trump vote would have been helpful. Though given that DeSantis and Haley fans do not like each other all, I think most of DeSantis supporters will vote for Trump instead. 

As for 2028, I don't see how DeSantis can do well. People don't like failure and that's what DeSantis and his 2024 race was. If he hadn't ran and spent the rest of his governorship supporting Trump and then served again as a congressman, he would have been a shoe-in for 2028. But he has shown himself to not be ready for the main stage. And his army of "influencers" has turned a lot of people off. 

North Korea is moving away from possible unification with South Korea in major policy change.

 

Kim Jong Un. BBC/Reuters

Kim Jong Un has said that North Korea will no longer have unification with South Korea as a goal and that the constitution should be changed to declare South Korea as a "principal enemy". BBC. Three organizations founded for the purpose of unification will also be shut down. Kim also said that if a war with South Korea were to break out North Korea's goal will to be to conquer South Korea. Tensions between South Korea and North Korea are growing. Last year both South and North Korea dropped their five year deal to reduce tensions after North Korea launched a satellite. Experts say that war between the two Koreas is more likely than any time since the war ended. 

My Comment:

This story is a few days old but I thought I should post about it anyways. North Korea isn't in the news despite how dangerous the situation is. This is due to a busy news cycle and the actual wars that are happening. The Red Sea Crisis, the Gaza War, everything Iran is doing and, of course, the Ukraine war are sucking up a lot of the media attention. Not to mention the 2024 Presidential race here in the United States. 

But this is a serious threat and could be the next major war to break out. This is Kim Jong Un giving up on any diplomatic solution to the Korea conflict and the fact that his rhetoric has reached levels that we haven't seen before is very concerning. 

Of course the same is true for South Korea. They withdrew from the deal they had first after North Korea launched a satellite. In retrospect that seems like a terrible idea. Abandoning a deal like that just because the other side launched a satellite seems like an extreme over reaction. But they did it anyways and now Korea is close to war. 

The Biden White House appears to be out to lunch on this issue, which is not surprising. To be fair, they have screwed up so badly on so many other foreign policy issues, they may simply not have the diplomatic resources to deal with this crisis along with all the other ones. They have nobody to blame but themselves of course, I doubt any of this would have been happening under Donald Trump, or even any halfway competent president of either party. It's just another example of how the Biden administration is uniquely bad. 

Speaking of Trump, I'd also like to point out that under Trump North Korea was a solved issue for all intents and purposes. Trump had a good relationship with Kim and was able to improve relations. He wasn't able to get a deal to end the war, but if he had been able to get a 2nd term he probably would have been able to. Alas, that didn't happen. 

So is war coming? It's possible. Usually North Korea only saber rattles like this when it wants something. But unlike other times I haven't heard any issues that North Korea is dealing with, such as famine. This could indeed be something more serious. And it's also possible that Kim just wants attention from the United States but given the situation right now, he's not likely to get it. 

The other factor is that the United States is both weaker than any other time in recent history. The United States is under siege and is very foolishly wasting huge amounts of resources in Ukraine. We are also getting dragged into a war with Yemen and possibly Iran as well. Though I doubt that North Korea could legitimately win a war with South Korea, if there was ever a time to try... 

 

After removing the terrorist designation in 2021, the Biden administration has again designated the Houthi movement as terrorists.

 

Houthi fighters with their cheeks stuffed with khat, a common drug in the region. CNBC/Reuters. 

The Biden Administration has re-designated the Houthi movement as a terrorist group, only three years after removing the designation. CNBC. President Donald Trump ordered the Houthis to be considered a Foreign Terror Organization (FTO) but Biden removed the designation as one of his first acts in office. The move was controversial at the time and after the Red Sea crisis broke up, Biden came under pressure to re-label the group. However, Biden did not designate them as a FTO, but as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). That level means that the Houthis will still receive foreign humanitarian aid. The designation was said to deter attacks by the Houthis on shipping targets in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. 

My Comment:

Removing the Houthis from the terror list was always a baffling decision. Supposedly it was so that humanitarian aid could be brought to the Houthis, but that could have been done by changing the classification from FTO to SDGT. Instead, Biden removed the designation entirely. Presumably this was done out of spite because Donald Trump was the man who put it in place in the first place. 

It was an obvious mistake as we ended up in a de facto war with the Houthis. Indeed, we had incidents today where one of their drones hit an American ship in the Red Sea and we launched airstrikes in return. The Houthis are absolutely our enemies now and it's ridiculous that Biden took this long to re-designate them. Again though, it's probably because the Biden administration couldn't admit that Donald Trump was right about anything. 

This won't do a damn thing to deter the Houthis. They are inviting a war a country dramatically more powerful than them. Do you think they care about a terror designation? Bombing them didn't deter them, why would a random declaration like this do anything? 

Though I don't think that's the real reason they did it. I am guessing they were under political pressure to do so as everyone was pointing out how dumb this whole situation was. This was a PR move by the Biden White House and mostly nothing else. As with so many things in this administration, Biden is doing things because of bad PR, not because it's the right thing to do. 

It's also kind of absurd that we are going to continue to give them humanitarian aid. If we actually wanted to deter them, cutting off food and medicine might actually do something. But it's crazy that we are bombing the Houthis and giving them help at the exact same time. Sure, there is the argument that Yemeni civilians are not the same as the Houthis but I've always thought it's a dumb argument. 

I'd also like to point out that the picture I used for this post shows that the Houthis are very fond of Khat, a drug common in the region. That's why their cheeks are puffed out like that. The fact that many Houthis are basically drug addicts does not bode well for our war against them. They are a lot less likely to care about being bombed if they are all on drugs. 

Iran has launched missiles at three different countries, including Iraq, Syria and now Pakistan.

 

File photo of an Iranian MLRS. BBC/Reuters. 

In a major escalation, Iran has launched missiles at targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan. BBC. Today, Iran launched missiles at targets in Pakistan which they claimed were training bases of the terror group Jaish al-Adl, in the border province Balochistan. Pakistan condemned the attack and said that two children had been killed by the Iranian strike. 

The attack comes a day after Iran hit targets in Iraq and Syria. AP. Iran said they had hit an Israeli Mossad target in Erbil Iraq. They also said they hit targets in Syria linked to ISIS. The attack in Erbil was near the American consulate there. Israel did not confirm that they had a base in Iraq. 

My Comment:

Keep in mind, Iran is supporting the Houthis in the Red Sea crisis and Hezbollah in their fight against Israel. They are also supporting the militias in Iraq and Syria that are attacking US bases there. And now they are launching missiles at their neighbors as well. It's a major escalation. 

The attack on Pakistan is even more shocking. Pakistan is a country with nuclear weapons and to launch missiles at such a country is inviting disaster. It's a minor miracle that a nuclear war didn't erupt between Iran and Pakistan. 

The only reason it didn't happen is because they targeted Balochistan. The region is a lawless area that does indeed have terrorists. But what is crazy to me is that Pakistan also fights the terror groups there, like Jaish al-Adl. It's insane to me that Iran didn't try to work with Pakistan to fight these terrorists or, at the very least, didn't use their diplomatic lines to warn the Pakistanis that an attack was coming. 

As for Iraq and Syria, I think the Syria strike could be legit. ISIS is still active there and ISIS is of course a legitimate target. And since Iran is basically occupying Syria at this point, there isn't really much of a reason for Syria to be upset about it. Iran and Syria are close allies so they don't have much standing to complain when Iran bombs their territory. 

Iraq is a different manner. Though Iraq is also a close ally, Iran's excuse for attacking them is pretty nonsensical. I doubt that Israel had a spy base in Erbil. It's possible but I doubt they would be that sloppy. It's possible that Iran had bad intelligence about it as well. 

It does seem like Iran appears to be picking a big fight and that they aren't acting smart at all. Picking a fight with Pakistan, of all countries, is just so utterly insane to me that I can't think of a reason for them to do it. Pakistan is ostensibly an US ally but tensions between the country are fairly high. This attack could push Pakistan back into the arms of the United States. 

I almost wonder if Iran is trying to draw the United States into a major war. If so we have absolutely taken the bait. We are stuck fighting in Iraq and Syria and now we are getting involved with Yemen, with more strikes happening today. I think Iran senses that the United States is weak and is trying to push us into a conflict that we probably won't be able to win and it is using these attacks on its neighbors to do so. 

Vivek Ramaswamy drops out after disappointing 4th place in Iowa Caucus.

 

Vivek Ramaswamy. BBC/Reuters.

Vivek Ramaswamy has dropped out of the GOP presidential race after a disappointing 4th place finish in the Iowa Caucuses. BBC. Ramaswamy said that there was no path for him and endorsed Donald Trump, saying he would campaign for him. The 38 year old son of Indian immigrants had made a splash in the campaign but was unable to pull support from the MAGA wing of the party. Ramaswamy had made his money in the pharmaceutical industry and hoped that would translate to success in the Republican Party. Though Trump and Ramaswamy mostly stayed cordial through the race, there was some tension between them before the Iowa caucus, but that appears to be water under the bridge now. 

My Comment:

Vivek Ramaswamy was one of the few interesting developments in the 2024 GOP race, along with the collapse of Ron DeSantis. The 38 year old went from someone nobody had heard of to a household name and it's clear how he did it. He was essentially Indian Trump in the race, and he made all the right people angry. But it didn't translate into success. 

The obvious reason why is why would you vote for the knock-off version? Trump was in the race and there just wasn't a lane for Ramaswamy to occupy. There were a few people that liked Trump's policies but didn't like the man, or thought that he was at too high of a legal risk to support him in 2024, but those folks were few and far between. Without Trump dropping out or something else similar happening, Ramaswamy never really had a chance. 

Though I always thought that Ramaswamy never really expected in do well in 2024. Some people run because they think they can be President and others do so to increase their visibility and perhaps secure a posting in the new administration. Trump and DeSantis are in the first category while Ramaswamy is clearly in the second, with Nikki Haley being in both. Ramaswamy's a smart guy, he had to know that he never really had a chance of being the GOP candidate. I always said he was running for the VP slot or some other similar position, but he could also have been laying the groundwork for a 2028 run. 

If raising his profile was the goal, I think Ramaswamy succeeded. He's a household name now and most people in his party know who he is. He's a controversial figure, yes, but name recognition is worth its weight in gold when it comes to politics and it could mean that he has a future in the party. I don't know if he will ever be President but I could see him as a congressman or senator. And there is a decent chance that he could end up in Trump's administration, though I don't see him as the VP. 

Speaking of Trump, this is very good news for him. He already had an amazing night in Iowa, winning the caucus by the biggest margin in history, but now he should be getting the lion's share of Ramaswamy's voters. A few of those voters might go to Ron DeSantis but most have Trump as their 2nd choice. Given that neither DeSantis or Haley dropped out it means that Trump faces a divided opponent while picking up, if the numbers from Iowa translate, around 8 or 9% of the vote. Given that he got 52% of the vote in Iowa that could mean he's above 60% and this campaign is over. 

Of course, what is true for Iowa may not be true for New Hampshire, the next state to have primary elections. I think that Iowa was an outlier in terms of the support Ramaswamy had and New Hampshire is more liberal. However, 538 says that Ramaswamy was getting about 5% in the polls before he dropped out. If Trump got all his votes that would put him at 48%, well above Nikki Haley at 30%. That means that Trump should almost certainly win in New Hampshire. 

As for Ramaswamy, this is certainly not the last time we have heard from him, not even in this election cycle. He is expected to go to New Hampshire to campaign for Trump and I think we will be hearing about him for a long time. I don't know if he will be President one day, but I do think that he has a future in the party. 

Trump wins the Iowa caucus in a landslide.

 

Trump during the Iowa Caucus. Yahoo News/AP.

Donald Trump has won the Iowa caucus in a landslide. AP. At the time of this posting, Trump got 53% of the vote with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis battling for 2nd place with both getting around 20% of the vote. The caucuses happened despite chilly weather and bitter windchills, which had raised concerns that some of Trump's supporters would not show up. Those concerns appear unfounded as Trump did better in Iowa than he did in 2016, where he lost the state. The results also show that Ron DeSantis has a difficult path. DeSantis needed a solid 2nd place performance, but with a statistical tie with Nikki Haley his path becomes much more difficult. Nikki Haley had been an afterthought in the Iowa race but gained momentum after major add buys and positive media coverage. The other two candidates still in the race, Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson were in the single digits in terms of results. 

Live results:

NBC

Fox News.

CBS

My Comment:

This is a major victory for Donald Trump. There were some, quite frankly, delusional takes on Twitter where Ron DeSantis was going make a surprise comeback and win the state, but that obviously didn't happen. Trump was always going to win and it looks like he's got the nomination locked up barring something horrible or unprecedented happening. 

It's bad news for both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. With them very close in the polls neither of them accomplished their goals in knocking the either out. Given how much in terms of funding and time both candidates spent there it's bad news for both of them that neither of them have a solid 2nd place. 

Some people will say this was a victory for Haley since she was way behind in earlier polls. I don't think it really is as she is currently in 3rd place. To be fair, that could obviously change as the results come in, but even if she does overtake DeSantis it's still not the victory she was looking for. 

The real disaster here is for Vivek Ramaswamy. He didn't even get to 10% and though he will win a few delegates, it's pretty clear that he is in a distant 4th place. Ramaswamy made a big push in Iowa and spent a lot of time there and had very little to show for it. It's actually surprising that he has gotten as many votes as he did since his only real appeal is to Trump voters and with Trump obviously in the race there isn't much of a reason to support him unless you are really worried about Trump being taken out before the race. 

As for Asa Hutchinson, I was honestly surprised he is still in the race. As of this post he doesn't even have 100 votes and some guy named Ryan Binkley has 200 move votes than him. Given he's just Chris Christie lite, another guy that is only running because he hates Trump, I am not surprised that nobody voted for him. 

The real question is who is going to drop out after this. I mean, other than Hutchinson who isn't a serious candidate anyways. I am guessing that both DeSantis and Haley are going to continue until New Hampshire. But I think that this is probably the end of the campaign for Ramaswamy's campaign. I don't think he has a path and I think he will probably run out of funding. 

Will the Red Sea crisis cause a return of the global supply crisis?

 

A ship in the Suez Canal. Fox Business/Getty.

The crisis in the Red Sea is causing concerns that the global supply crisis could return. Fox Business. Shipping prices have already increased as most ships are no longer braving the Red Sea due to attacks from Houthi rebels from Yemen. 15% of all shipping and 30% of container shipping used to go through the Red Sea via the Suez Canal. Shipping is now being routed around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, adding weeks to the journey and costing thousands of dollars a day. Compounding the global shipping industry is the fact that the Panama Canal is also facing issues due to drought, which is also delaying shipping. The fear is that the shipping delays and higher shipping costs could lead to even further inflation and even shortages of certain products that pass through the legion. 

My Comment:

This is a pretty bad situation for the global economy. The Red Sea is a key shipping route and though it hasn't been closed entirely, shipping is a lot less common through it now than it was before the war started. That is costing the world millions of dollars and the war is just starting. Who knows what will happen if the war really heats up?

The Panama canal situation is going to just make things worse. From what I understand if ships can't go through the canal, they either have to go the long way around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa or take the extremely treacherous route around the Cape of Magellan in South America. Neither is a good solution and both would add millions in terms of shipping and insurance costs. 

And I don't think the situation is going to get better anytime soon. All the Panama Canal situation needs is rain, but the Yemen conflict? That's not going away anytime soon. From what I understand the strikes on targets in Yemen did little to damage the Houthis offensive capabilities. And there is very little chance that the Houthis will give up the war when the war in Gaza is still happening. 

The United States is somewhat insulated from the crisis. Most of our shipping comes from the coasts and very little of our goods go through either canal. We also get most of our energy domestically so we shouldn't be facing any kind of economic collapse if this war goes on for months or years. 

The rest of the world is not so lucky. Europe gets a lot of their goods and services through the Suez Canal and this is going to cost them a lot. I would expect a major increase of energy prices for them, and it would probably affect us as well due to the interconnectedness of the global economy. Unlike the United States though, Europe is a lot less energy independent so there is very little they can do. 

The real big losers out of all of this is probably Egypt. Unlike the other players in the Hamas war, they had very little to do with the situation. But they are losing billions of dollars in transit fees for the Suez Canal. That is going to do huge damage to their economy and it's honestly surprising that they haven't joined the conflict against the Houthis... 

I've been on record as saying that the economy is a lot weaker than the media and the Democrats say it is and I am expecting a major recession, or even a 2nd Great Depression. Could this be the shock that pushes it over the edge? Despite the problems the Red Sea crisis is causing, I don't think it alone is enough to do so. But if we have some other kind of global economic shock on top of it, like another major war or huge natural disaster? Absolutely...  

The US and Britain have launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

 

A UK RAF Typhoon launching from Cyprus to strike targets in Yemen. Reuters. 

The US and Britain have launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, leading to a new war in the Middle East. Reuters. Defense Secretary Austin, who is the hospital, released a statement saying the attack was targeting Houthi drone capabilities, air defenses, radars, and cruise missiles. Aircraft, submarines and aircraft, including four RAF Typhoons, hit targets across Yemen. The Houthis have launched multiple attacks on shipping in support of Hamas and their war against Israel. In addition to the United States and Britain, Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands participated in the attack. 

Live updates:

BBC.

The Guardian

My Comment:

This is, of course, a major escalation in the Middle East and a good example of how screwed up American foreign policy is. Secretary Blinken has been flying all over the region trying to prevent a major escalation in the Israeli war with Israel preparing to attack Hezbollah. The point was to not inflame the region or have the Israelis overextend themselves. 

What does Biden do? He has inflamed the region and now we are overextending ourselves. We are already deeply involved in the Ukraine war and have massively depleted our stockpiles of weapons. And we are also knee deep in the war with Hamas. Not to mention the fact that our troops in Syria and Iraq are under almost constant attack. 

It's unclear how successful these attacks have been. There haven't been any reliable reports of any casualties on the US/UK side. The Houthis claim to have sunk a ship and shot down an F-22 but I doubt that is true. So far it seems as though we have gotten away without any casualties. 

Did we do any damage to the Houthis? Possibly. Some of the things we targeted are not easily replaced, like the radars and any airbases the Houthis have. But I don't think we seriously degraded their ability to launch attacks against targets in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Much of those attacks were launched via drones and ballistic missiles, which are both easily hidden and hard to target. We may have stopped their ability to launch helicopter and boat raids though. 

I do expect the Houthis to respond to this with attacks of their own. Though their attacks have been mostly unsuccessful so far, it is possible they have been holding back. If they are able to launch a major attack it's possible they could overwhelm one of our ships leading to damage or even destruction to commercial shipping or even one of our warships. And they could even get lucky with their remaining air defenses and shoot down one of our planes. 

And the retaliation could extend beyond Yemen. Our bases in Iraq and Syria are being attacked as well, which is status quo ante, but it could lead to other, more serious escalations. It's very possible that Hezbollah could join the war in Israel because of this and that would really escalate the war. 

The biggest question is what Iran does. They are the Houthis allies and have supplied them most of their weapons. While it is somewhat inaccurate to call the Houthis under the control of the Iranians they are allies of course and Iran may feel compelled to do something. 

What could that be? Most likely status quo ante where the Iranian provide weapons and support to the Houthis. I don't think that Iran is prepared for a full scale war with the United States. However, that is an option that they could take. And we have to remember that both Iran and Hezbollah have sleeper agents inside the United States and could absolutely launch terror attacks here. 

I have said that Joe Biden didn't have any good choices in the Yemen conflict and that he was going to screw it up anyways. I know that Biden had to do something about the attacks on shipping but was this what he should have done? I do think that he should have, at the very least, gotten the Saudis, Egyptians and other regional powers on board with the strikes. Only Bahrain is said to have supported these airstrikes and as far as I can tell only the UK actually participated in it. 

Either way, I think all of this could have been avoided. Biden deserves a lot of the blame since his presidency is so weak and because he was so focused on Ukraine instead of the Middle East despite the Middle East being a tinderbox for as long as I remember. If Trump was in power I don't think the October 7th terror attacks would have happened, let alone the Houthi attacks on shipping. 

Still, with things the way they are, I think some response to the Houthis was required. I don't think we had to go all out with airstrikes, a single attack would have been enough, but we should have done it weeks ago. And we should have offered to negotiate with the Houthis, use both the carrot and the stick, not just the stick. 

I don't have high hopes of this war going well. The Houthis are fairly formidable by the standards of third world countries. And our leadership? Biden's demented and our Secretary of Defense is currently incapacitated. Even if the war remains lower scale with the status quo being Houthi attacks on shipping and then airstrikes in return, I don't trust Biden to not screw it up... 

Chris Christie drops out of GOP race.

 

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. NPR/AP.

Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, has ended his campaign against Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination. NPR. Christie was never popular and was polling at 3.6% in national polls, while Trump was polling at 61%. Though Christie was a foe of Trump in the 2016 race, he made up with the President during his first term. However, Christie turned on Trump over perceived mishandling of the 2020 election results and January 6th. Unlike other candidates in the race, Christie made his campaign entirely about Donald Trump, which proved to be unpopular. The announcement that he was dropping out of the race was overshadowed by a hot mic moment where he trashed fellow non-Trump candidates. He said that Nikki Haley had "punched above her weight" but also said "she's going to get smoked". He also said that Ron DeSantis is "petrified". 

My Comment:

I have always disliked Chris Christie, even back when he was the governor of New Jersey. Much of it is his policies on gun rights during his time as governor, New Jersey has extremely strict and obviously unconstitutional gun laws and Christie was just fine with that. His transformation into the supposed Republican that says worse things about Donald Trump than the Democrats do was not unexpected. 

And to prove that I do actually criticize Trump when he makes a mistake, letting Chris Christie into his circle was a major one. Christie is, if nothing else, an opportunist and when he thought it would advantage him to support Trump he did. When he thought he could wrangle his way to the oval office by criticizing him, he did. And I am sure if Trump wins the Presidency in 2024 Christie will come slithering back on his belly to try and get back into his good graces. 

The problem is that Trump has a decent chance of doing so. His belief that he can cut a deal with anyone belies the fact that some people are just rotten to the core, like Chris Christie. It has helped him in the past as he was able to cut deals with more rational and less evil people, like Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin, but Christie was always going to betray him. 

Christie's obvious flaw is ambition. I don't think the man has any principles whatsoever. He does what he thinks will help him, not what he thinks is right, if he thinks anything is wrong at all that is. He didn't support gun rights because he thought it would harm him. He has flip-flopped on Donald Trump three times now and I fully expect him to do so again. I don't believe for a second that he is actually outraged about January 6th, he just used it as an opportunity to advance his own agenda, much like the Democrats. 

As for Christie's campaign, it's probably not a good idea to run against a popular de facto incumbent with no actual plan for the country other than stopping the popular incumbent. The only time he got into the news is when he said something outrageous about Trump. He never had any real policy and his only real purpose was to bash Trump. Say what you want about Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley but at least they have actual policy positions and can talk about things other than Donald Trump. 

Christie's hyper focus on Trump hurt him in other ways. His only real chance of being the candidate, a long shot at best, was to win in New Hampshire, which Trump will win but with Nikki Haley in a healthy 2nd place. But Christie never really attacked Haley, which is a massive mistake. Though I despise the man, I do know that he has the ability to destroy week candidates but he never really tried to do so against Haley. Doing so would have at least given him a slim chance but he didn't and now he has dropped out. Given her pretty obvious weakness as a candidate and the fact that everyone, including Trump, has treated her with kid gloves, it was a missed opportunity for him. 

Speaking of Haley, she's probably the biggest benefactor of Christie dropping out. With Ron DeSantis floundering and Haley getting propped up by the media it's likely that Christies few supporters will go to her. Though it's possible that they won't, Haley hasn't been anywhere near as vulgar and shrill when it comes to Trump and Christie's supporters might now trust her to be anti-Trump enough. 

I do have to say that Christie did accurately describe his also-ran opponents during the hot mic moment. Haley is going to get smoked by Trump, that much is obvious. And Ron DeSantis is petrified, to the point where he's rumored to drop out after he fails in Iowa. It's the only amusing thing that Christie has done this entire campaign. 

As for Christie, I don't think he has a political career after this. Despite my reservations, I doubt that Trump will let him anywhere near his 2nd Administration, and I can't see him entering into the 2028 race. Everyone hates the guy and I can't see him ever winning a race at the national level. His only hope is to do the news show circuit as the token "Republican" who does nothing but attack his fellow Republicans and there is a lot of competition for the role. If we are lucky, Christie will fade into well deserved obscurity. 

Massive farmer protests break out in Germany

 

Parked tractors in front of German Parliament. CNBC/Getty.

A massive protest of farmers have broken out in Germany in response to economic restrictions. CNBC. The farmers are upset about proposed removals of fuel subsides and tax breaks for farming. The farmers say that this would destroy their livelihood as they would not be able to pass the cost increase onto consumers. The government backed off on some of the restrictions, saying the tax breaks would continue but the subsidies would be phased out over three years instead of instantly, though the protesting farmers rejected this. Germany is facing a massive budget crisis worth tens of billions of euros due to a court ruling saying that Coronavirus emergency funds could not be used for the general budget. The protests have involved blocking roads with vehicles, hay and manure.  

My Comment:

This reminds me of other major protests against the government such as the Canadian trucker protests and the farmer protests in The Netherlands. Unlike far-left protests these folks are actually protesting something valid, the attack against farmers in Germany. 

I don't agree with some of the tactics here. I am opposed in general to blocking roads and highway given how counterproductive they are. Even when the cause is just it just isn't worth it most of the time and it is pretty much guaranteed to push fence sitters against you, even if your cause is just. I do have to say that it is absolutely hilarious that they are using manure to do this though.

The elephant in the room is the fact that Germany could very easily cover their massive budget problems if they just changed their policies. The article didn't mention it but a major reason that this shortfall exists is the absolutely moronic stuff Germany is spending their money on. The country is wasting billions of dollars on green energy for basically no reason. If they simply reduced that nonsense they could absolutely pay off their budget shortfall. 

They are also wasting money on the war in Ukraine. Not only has Germany provided billions of euros to pay for Ukraine's government, they utterly destroyed their own economy with their economic sanctions on Russian fuel. Would these subsidies even be necessary if they hadn't artificially raised prices with their sanctions? 

This is another example of normal people protesting instead of far-left activists. These protests have had mixed results. January 6th was a failure in the United States and the Yellow Vests protests in France had a limited effect. But the Canadian trucker protests were successful in ending most Coronavirus restrictions, not only in Canada but globally. The Canadian truckers paid a huge price for it though and it remains to be seen if the Germans will go as tyrannical as Justin Trudeau did in Canada. 

I do think that they can put a lot of pressure on a German government that is already under siege. I think they will have to either give the truckers what they want or try to go full tyranny and break these protests up. Of course, the smart thing to do would be to make cuts elsewhere but if they were going to do the smart thing they wouldn't be in this mess in the first place... 

Report: China's corruption purge was due to problems with their rocket force, including missiles filled with water.

 

Chinese missiles. The WarZone.

A new report alleges that China's military purge was due to corruption in the rocket force. The WarZone. The corruption led to the firing of China's Defense Minister and many other high ranking officials in China's Rocket force. Some of the graft included filling missiles with water instead of fuel and many new missile silos having defective lids, meaning those weapons could not be used in conflict. The missiles were likely the liquid fueled DF-5 series ballistic missiles. It is possible that the water filled missiles could be due to poor maintenance, but watering down fuel is a common form of corruption worldwide. President Xi has made rooting out corruption a cornerstone of his presidency. The report says that the corruption may have affected military readiness and delayed any military action against Taiwan. 

The original report can be found on Bloomberg but it is paywalled.  

My Comment:   

There are questions if this report is even true. There are no cited sources in the Bloomberg article and that is always a red flag when it comes to news reports. Supposedly they are supporting Western intelligence agencies which is a 2nd red flag. It's also a negative story against at US competitor, which is a third red flag. 

Despite all that I think the general idea of the report is probably true. There has to be a reason why China fired and disappeared their defense minister and this would be as good as explanation as any I have heard. And Xi is focused on corruption and finding corruption in his rocket forces would be a good reason to purge a bunch of them. 

Are the specific allegations about water filled missiles and faulty missile silo lids true? It's possible. Like the article said, watering down fuel is a common corruption tactic throughout the world. And if officials are cutting corners on building new missile silos that's hardly unbelievable. 

But I also wouldn't rule out incompetence for explanations for both issues. People could just be lazy and stupid and not trying to make a buck. Never assume malice when stupidity and laziness could explain it. 

Of course each explanation would explain the purge. When you have missiles that won't fire due to being fueled with water or because the lid on the missile silo won't open, then you are more than justified in firing a bunch of people. No military can tolerate that so if the reports are true then it is no surprise that a bunch of people lost their jobs and possibly more. 

Will it effect any attack on Taiwan? Very possible. If the US is aware of this, and they are, that means they would be a lot less afraid of China's nuclear deterrent if they know that many of their ICBM's won't work. That's got to be totally unacceptable for launching a war of choice. 

I do wonder if we don't have the same problems with corruption and incompetence in our own nuclear forces. It absolutely seems like our entire government is rotten from the head on down so I wouldn't be surprised if there was some amount of graft and idiocy running in our missile programs. Indeed, given the quality of some of our weapons given to Ukraine I would not be surprised if we wouldn't face similar issues as the Chinese if a war actually came. Indeed, the only country that I would trust to not have the problem is Russia, which was probably able to discover and root out the rot when the war with Ukraine broke out...