Vivek Ramaswamy has dropped out of the GOP presidential race after a disappointing 4th place finish in the Iowa Caucuses. BBC. Ramaswamy said that there was no path for him and endorsed Donald Trump, saying he would campaign for him. The 38 year old son of Indian immigrants had made a splash in the campaign but was unable to pull support from the MAGA wing of the party. Ramaswamy had made his money in the pharmaceutical industry and hoped that would translate to success in the Republican Party. Though Trump and Ramaswamy mostly stayed cordial through the race, there was some tension between them before the Iowa caucus, but that appears to be water under the bridge now.
My Comment:
Vivek Ramaswamy was one of the few interesting developments in the 2024 GOP race, along with the collapse of Ron DeSantis. The 38 year old went from someone nobody had heard of to a household name and it's clear how he did it. He was essentially Indian Trump in the race, and he made all the right people angry. But it didn't translate into success.
The obvious reason why is why would you vote for the knock-off version? Trump was in the race and there just wasn't a lane for Ramaswamy to occupy. There were a few people that liked Trump's policies but didn't like the man, or thought that he was at too high of a legal risk to support him in 2024, but those folks were few and far between. Without Trump dropping out or something else similar happening, Ramaswamy never really had a chance.
Though I always thought that Ramaswamy never really expected in do well in 2024. Some people run because they think they can be President and others do so to increase their visibility and perhaps secure a posting in the new administration. Trump and DeSantis are in the first category while Ramaswamy is clearly in the second, with Nikki Haley being in both. Ramaswamy's a smart guy, he had to know that he never really had a chance of being the GOP candidate. I always said he was running for the VP slot or some other similar position, but he could also have been laying the groundwork for a 2028 run.
If raising his profile was the goal, I think Ramaswamy succeeded. He's a household name now and most people in his party know who he is. He's a controversial figure, yes, but name recognition is worth its weight in gold when it comes to politics and it could mean that he has a future in the party. I don't know if he will ever be President but I could see him as a congressman or senator. And there is a decent chance that he could end up in Trump's administration, though I don't see him as the VP.
Speaking of Trump, this is very good news for him. He already had an amazing night in Iowa, winning the caucus by the biggest margin in history, but now he should be getting the lion's share of Ramaswamy's voters. A few of those voters might go to Ron DeSantis but most have Trump as their 2nd choice. Given that neither DeSantis or Haley dropped out it means that Trump faces a divided opponent while picking up, if the numbers from Iowa translate, around 8 or 9% of the vote. Given that he got 52% of the vote in Iowa that could mean he's above 60% and this campaign is over.
Of course, what is true for Iowa may not be true for New Hampshire, the next state to have primary elections. I think that Iowa was an outlier in terms of the support Ramaswamy had and New Hampshire is more liberal. However, 538 says that Ramaswamy was getting about 5% in the polls before he dropped out. If Trump got all his votes that would put him at 48%, well above Nikki Haley at 30%. That means that Trump should almost certainly win in New Hampshire.
As for Ramaswamy, this is certainly not the last time we have heard from him, not even in this election cycle. He is expected to go to New Hampshire to campaign for Trump and I think we will be hearing about him for a long time. I don't know if he will be President one day, but I do think that he has a future in the party.
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