Joe Biden. USA Today/AFP.
New polling shows Joe Biden is losing votes from Blacks, Hispanics and young voters, key groups that he would need in 2024. USA Today. In the USA Today poll Trump leads Biden 39 to 37% with 17% saying they will vote third party. When third party candidates are named Trump increases his lead by three points, 37% to 34% with RFK Jr taking 10% of the remaining votes. Biden has lost many of his Black supporters with only 63% supporting him, with most of those voters wanting to vote for a third party candidate. Young voters under 35 are now backing Trump 37 to 33%, which is significant as many of Trump's policies are less popular among that group. However, it is Hispanics where Biden is truly hemorrhaging voters. Trump leads Biden in the poll among Hispanics 39 to 34%, a massive drop compared to 2020 where Biden took a 65 to 32% lead.
My Comment:
More bad polling for Joe Biden and more indication that he won't be able to win in 2024 fairly. Biden's only real chance of succeeding is by removing Donald Trump, which is why we are seeing the efforts to remove him from ballots. I also don't see Biden stepping down so another candidate can run, he's running to keep himself and his son, Hunter Biden, out of prison.
So why is this happening? I think the most obvious reason is that Joe Biden is a failure as a President. He's been terrible in almost every aspect of his job and it's becoming obvious even to his die hard supporters.
The economy is probably the biggest reason. Though Biden is trying gaslight people into believing it is fine because the stock market is doing ok, people aren't buying it. Inflation was an absolute killer and people know that you can barely leave the house without spending $100. Though inflation has slowed from its peak, it still remains true.
Biden has also broken a lot of his promises to his supporters. He never did get student debt relief passed and he hasn't had much in the way of legislative success. Indeed, many of his key issues, including abortion and gun control, have seen fairly massive reverses'. That was due to SCOTUS, of course, but Biden still got a lot of the blame for it.
Biden also faces a credible third party threat in RFK Jr. Cornell West is also running and he could take a few voters as well, but RFK is at least someone that has a better reputation that Biden. It was feared that RFK would take voters away from Donald Trump, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Most Republicans are all in on Trump and won't be going to RFK with only a few voters being drawn away.
Immigration is probably a huge issue for Biden as well. As someone that works at a multicultural workplace, I can say that Blacks and Hispanics have a major problem with immigrants as well. Both groups are having to compete with immigrants and aren't exactly happy with it. And it's also true that many of these migrants aren't even Hispanic at this point, or, possibly the wrong types of Hispanic.
Still, a lot of things could happen between now and November. The fact that most of these voters are going to third party candidates mean that if those candidates drop out these voters could go back to Biden. But I think that things are going to get a lot worse for Biden. The economy is a paper tiger and could collapse at any moment, we are on the verge of a new war with Yemen while we are currently losing the war in Ukraine and the attacks against Trump are actually helping him.
The real question is how reliable our voting will be in 2024. Nothing really has been done to ensure the nonsense that happened in 2020 will be any better in 2024. The good news is that an election is a lot harder to steal when the votes aren't close, it's why Trump managed to win in 2016 even though the Democrats cheated there as well. At some point there aren't enough votes to find and I think that we are at that point in 2024.
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