The US and Britain have launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

 

A UK RAF Typhoon launching from Cyprus to strike targets in Yemen. Reuters. 

The US and Britain have launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, leading to a new war in the Middle East. Reuters. Defense Secretary Austin, who is the hospital, released a statement saying the attack was targeting Houthi drone capabilities, air defenses, radars, and cruise missiles. Aircraft, submarines and aircraft, including four RAF Typhoons, hit targets across Yemen. The Houthis have launched multiple attacks on shipping in support of Hamas and their war against Israel. In addition to the United States and Britain, Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands participated in the attack. 

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My Comment:

This is, of course, a major escalation in the Middle East and a good example of how screwed up American foreign policy is. Secretary Blinken has been flying all over the region trying to prevent a major escalation in the Israeli war with Israel preparing to attack Hezbollah. The point was to not inflame the region or have the Israelis overextend themselves. 

What does Biden do? He has inflamed the region and now we are overextending ourselves. We are already deeply involved in the Ukraine war and have massively depleted our stockpiles of weapons. And we are also knee deep in the war with Hamas. Not to mention the fact that our troops in Syria and Iraq are under almost constant attack. 

It's unclear how successful these attacks have been. There haven't been any reliable reports of any casualties on the US/UK side. The Houthis claim to have sunk a ship and shot down an F-22 but I doubt that is true. So far it seems as though we have gotten away without any casualties. 

Did we do any damage to the Houthis? Possibly. Some of the things we targeted are not easily replaced, like the radars and any airbases the Houthis have. But I don't think we seriously degraded their ability to launch attacks against targets in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Much of those attacks were launched via drones and ballistic missiles, which are both easily hidden and hard to target. We may have stopped their ability to launch helicopter and boat raids though. 

I do expect the Houthis to respond to this with attacks of their own. Though their attacks have been mostly unsuccessful so far, it is possible they have been holding back. If they are able to launch a major attack it's possible they could overwhelm one of our ships leading to damage or even destruction to commercial shipping or even one of our warships. And they could even get lucky with their remaining air defenses and shoot down one of our planes. 

And the retaliation could extend beyond Yemen. Our bases in Iraq and Syria are being attacked as well, which is status quo ante, but it could lead to other, more serious escalations. It's very possible that Hezbollah could join the war in Israel because of this and that would really escalate the war. 

The biggest question is what Iran does. They are the Houthis allies and have supplied them most of their weapons. While it is somewhat inaccurate to call the Houthis under the control of the Iranians they are allies of course and Iran may feel compelled to do something. 

What could that be? Most likely status quo ante where the Iranian provide weapons and support to the Houthis. I don't think that Iran is prepared for a full scale war with the United States. However, that is an option that they could take. And we have to remember that both Iran and Hezbollah have sleeper agents inside the United States and could absolutely launch terror attacks here. 

I have said that Joe Biden didn't have any good choices in the Yemen conflict and that he was going to screw it up anyways. I know that Biden had to do something about the attacks on shipping but was this what he should have done? I do think that he should have, at the very least, gotten the Saudis, Egyptians and other regional powers on board with the strikes. Only Bahrain is said to have supported these airstrikes and as far as I can tell only the UK actually participated in it. 

Either way, I think all of this could have been avoided. Biden deserves a lot of the blame since his presidency is so weak and because he was so focused on Ukraine instead of the Middle East despite the Middle East being a tinderbox for as long as I remember. If Trump was in power I don't think the October 7th terror attacks would have happened, let alone the Houthi attacks on shipping. 

Still, with things the way they are, I think some response to the Houthis was required. I don't think we had to go all out with airstrikes, a single attack would have been enough, but we should have done it weeks ago. And we should have offered to negotiate with the Houthis, use both the carrot and the stick, not just the stick. 

I don't have high hopes of this war going well. The Houthis are fairly formidable by the standards of third world countries. And our leadership? Biden's demented and our Secretary of Defense is currently incapacitated. Even if the war remains lower scale with the status quo being Houthi attacks on shipping and then airstrikes in return, I don't trust Biden to not screw it up...