The Biden Administration is worried that Israel may go to war with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

 

Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu with the military. Washington Post/AP.

The Biden Administration is worried that Israel may go to war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would expand the war. Washington Post. Hezbollah has been attacking Israel since the start of the war in Gaza with regular exchanges of rocket fire. The intelligence community in the United States thinks that Israel would be hard pressed to win a war with Hezbollah while also fighting in Gaza. They also believe that Hezbollah may be willing to avoid a war with Israel if they are negotiated with. A war with Hezbollah would be deadly on both sides and could draw the United States into the war. In addition to Hezbollah targets the intelligence community claims that Israel has hit the forces of Lebanon's Armed Forces (LAF) and the Biden administration has pressured Israel on the issue. 

My Comment:

I almost never use the Washington Post as a source, given their editorial board's obvious bias against anything remotely conservatives and the fact that they are pretty much controlled by Jeff Bezos and serve as a mouthpiece of the State Department. Unfortunately, they were the only one that had this story and, credit where credit is due, it appears to be a good piece of reporting. 

Hezbollah has always been the wild card in the war in Gaza. They have remained mostly quite by the standards of the war, mostly content to launch a bunch of rockets at Israel and not much else. They are absolutely capable of much more, they have thousands of rockets and missiles along with drones and fighters. They could do a lot of damage if they were fully committed to the war. 

The harassment by Hezbollah does have a major effect on what Israel can do. Not only have they had to evacuate thousands of civilians that live near the border with Lebanon, they have to keep some military forces to counter the threat in the region, forces that would have better been used in Gaza. Is that something they can tolerate? That's an open question.

There is an argument that going after Hezbollah without finishing Hamas first is a bad idea. Israel is a small country with a small military and trying to fight a war on two fronts would be extremely difficult for them. Especially since Hezbollah is a much more formidable opponent than Hamas. It might also draw Iran and other actors into the war directly.  

The problem is that they really can't tolerate these constant rocket attacks. Doing so is not only a bad look for them, it's going to disrupt the lives of everyone that lives in that region. It's a big ask to have people leave their homes or fear getting blown up by rockets. 

That being said, I think that the Biden Administration might not be acting in Israel's best interests. Their argument that Israel can't handle a two front war may or may not have merit, but I think it has more to do with Biden and his election chances. 

Biden is bleeding support among young people and his support of the war in Gaza is a major reason why. Much of that is his own fault, Biden never cracked down on the far left. Regardless, Biden is likely to bleed even more support from the far left if he allows Israel to expand the war, even if expanding the war is the right solution. 

So is Israel going to do it? I am not sure. I don't think Biden has that much influence but I do think the argument that opening up an optional 2nd front is a bad move is sound. I think the right move would be to finish the war in Gaza first before opening up any new fronts.