Ukraine has still not made a breakthrough in their offensive...

 

A Ukrainian soldier in a tank. Politico/AFP.

After two months of fighting Ukraine has still not made a breakthrough in their summer offensive. Politico. The latest attack involved thousands of troops and hundreds of vehicles has not garnered significant results with land taken measuring in hundreds of meters instead of kilometers. Ukraine has had a lot of trouble clearing minefields and even when they do the Russians drop more mines behind them via artillery and helicopters, trapping troops between minefields. Ukraine has deployed 150,000 troops to the offensive though some brigades are still being held in reserve. 

My Comment:

This isn't new for anyone who has been paying attention to the Ukraine war and isn't a blind partisan. Ukraine's summer offensive has been a failure. Despite the huge concentration of forces, the new western weapons and the deployment of freshly trained troops the offensive has hardly taken back any territory at all and was not able to breakthrough Russian lines. Indeed, most reporting I have read has said Ukraine has barely even reached Russia's first line. 

What the article doesn't mention is the fact that Ukraine has taken massive casualties as well. Up to a third of their equipment was lost last month and we have had a month of fighting since then. Though Ukraine doesn't release their human casualties they must be horrific as well, especially since Ukraine switched away from using their armor and going back to infantry assaults. Though the armor was getting destroyed they at least allowed soldiers to survive long enough to flee. Not so much in an infantry assault. 

Western media tends to blame the mines for Ukraine's offensive failing. I don't want to downplay the success mines have had, but they are far from the only thing that is mauling Ukrainian brigades. The fact is that Ukraine is at a technology disadvantage and that Russia is using combined arms. If it was just mines Ukraine would be able to break through, but every time they try to clear the mines they get hit with rockets, artillery, helicopters, drones and missiles. And then they get mines dropped behind them. 

Ukraine on the other hand does not have that. They have limited artillery and drones and are on the offensive so things like trenches and minefields hinder them instead of help. They are also outnumbered and trying to attack Russia's strongest defenses. To be fair to the Ukrainians the fact that they are even still fighting is somewhat miraculous given the disadvantages they have. 

The media is starting to cover the fact that the Ukrainians are failing but they are still pushing the idea that western weapons are going to be the thing that changes the outcome of the war. The Politico article was talking about the Vampire anti-drone system and M1 Abrams tanks as if they are going to succeed where the Bradly Fighting Vehicles, Leopard Tanks and the billions of dollars of other equipment the west has sent Ukraine. 

Regardless, I don't see the Ukrainians breaking through any time soon. If they were smart they would cancel it and hide behind their own defenses and force the Russians to go on offensive. This is what they should have been doing for a long time and would force long grinding battles like Bakhmut. Ukraine would still lose but they would buy time for a more advantageous peace agreement and have a lesser chance of a total collapse. But now? The collapse is probably inevitable.